交易员们仍在消化美国中期选举的影响，紧接着又将迎来另一场波动：每月一次的非农就业（NFP）报告——这份就业报告将显示什么？对美元又意味着什么？
Traders are still sifting through the fallout of the US midterm elections, just in time to get hit with another volatility: The monthly Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report - what will the jobs report show, and what could it mean for the US dollar?
非农报告要点 非农报告预期：新增就业+6.5万人，平均时薪环比+0.3%，失业率4.2%。
NFP Key Points NFP report expectations: +65K jobs, +0.3% m/m earnings, unemployment at 4.2%.
非农领先指标显示，本月就业报告可能高于预期，整体新增就业人数或在10万至15万之间。
NFP leading indicators point to a potentially above-expected reading in this month’s jobs report, with headline job growth coming in somewhere in the 100-150K range.
从技术面看，美元/日元仍处于156.50至159.00之间的六周区间内，尽管其已形成一系列更高的高点和更高的低点。非农报告何时发布？
Technically speaking, USD/JPY remains within its 6-week range between 156.50 and 159.00, though it has put in a series of higher highs and higher lows. When is the NFP Report?
月度非农报告将于11月6日（周五）美国东部时间8:30发布。
The monthly NFP report will be released on Friday, November 6, at 8:30 ET.
非农报告预期 交易员和经济学家预计，非农报告将显示美国新增6.5万个净就业岗位，平均时薪环比上升0.3%（同比上升2.9%），U3失业率为4.2%。
NFP Report Expectations Traders and economists expect the NFP report to show that the US created 65K net new jobs, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% m/m (2.9% y/y) and the U3 unemployment rate at 4.2%.
非农报告概述 交易员们仍在消化美国中期选举的影响，紧接着又将迎来另一场波动：每月一次的非农就业报告。
NFP Overview Traders are still sifting through the fallout of the US midterm elections, just in time to get hit with another volatility: The monthly Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.
今年迄今，美国经济平均每月新增6.8万个就业岗位，因此本月就业报告的共识预估为+6.5万或许并不令人意外。就FOMC主席凯文·沃什而言，他将自己职责范围内的就业方面描述为“相当积极”，并援引就业增长步伐超过去年同期、失业率低于一年前以及初请失业金人数接近几代人以来的低点作为依据。
So far this year, the US economy has created an average of +68K jobs per month, so perhaps it’s not surprising that the consensus estimate for this month’s jobs report is +65K. For his part, FOMC Chairman Kevin Warsh characterized the employment side of his mandate as “quite positive,” citing payroll growth running above last year’s pace, a lower jobless rate than a year earlier, and unemployment claims near generational lows
对于10月份的就业报告，交易员们预期又将是一份相当稳健的报告：来源：StoneX 如上图所示，市场预期劳动力市场将再次交出积极答卷：就业温和增长、失业率稳定、工资继续逐步上升。
For the October jobs report, traders are anticipating another reasonably solid report: Source: StoneX As the graphic above shows, expectations are for another positive reading on the labor market, with modest job growth, stable unemployment, and continued gradual wage increases.
由于通胀率远高于美联储2%的目标，交易员仍对下月可能再次加息保持警惕，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的FedWatch工具显示，再次加息的可能性约为70%：来源：CME FedWatch非农预测老读者都知道，我们重点关注四个历史可靠的领先指标，以研判每月的非农报告：ISM服务业就业分项指数从上月的50.1升至51.4。
With inflation holding well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, traders remain wary about the potential for another interest rate hike next month, with the CME’s FedWatch tool showing about a 70% probability of such a move: Source: CME FedWatch NFP Forecast As regular readers know, we focus on four historically reliable leading indicators to help handicap each month’s NFP report,:
ISM制造业就业分项指数从52.7小幅回落至52.4，基本持平。ADP就业报告显示新增就业8.6万人，高于上月的8万人。
The ISM Services Employment subindex rose to 51.4 from 50.1 last month. The ISM Manufacturing Employment subindex held steady at 52.4 from 52.7 last month. The ADP Employment report came in at 86K jobs, up from last month’s 80K reading.
初请失业金人数四周移动均值降至19.5万，低于上月的20万，接近历史低点。
The 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims fell to 195K, down from 200K last month and near historic lows.
综合数据及我们的内部模型，领先指标显示本月就业报告可能高于预期，总体非农新增就业或在10万至15万之间，但鉴于调查回复率有限，不确定性区间较大。
Weighing the data and our internal models, the leading indicators point to a potentially above-expected reading in this month’s jobs report, with headline job growth coming in somewhere in the 100-150K range, albeit with a big band of uncertainty given the limited response rates.
无论如何，这份报告的逐月波动向来难以预测，因此我们不会过分看重任何预测（包括我们自己的预测）。
Regardless, the month-to-month fluctuations in this report are notoriously difficult to predict, so we wouldn’t put too much stock into any forecasts (including ours).
一如既往，报告的其他方面，包括备受关注的平均时薪数据和失业率，也会影响市场对该报告的反应。非农报告可能引发的市场反应从技术面看，美元正交易在一个月区间的中部附近，这使风险平衡在报告公布前相对中性。交易员将在美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）再次开会前再获得一份就业报告和两份通胀报告，这表明市场波动性可能低于往常，除非劳动力市场数据出现真正令人意外的结果。
As always, the other aspects of the release, including the closely watched average hourly earnings figure and unemployment rate will also impact how markets react to the release. Potential NFP Market Reaction Technically speaking, the US dollar is trading near the middle of its 1-month range, leaving a relatively neutral balance of risks heading into the report. The fact that traders will get another jobs report, and two more inflation reports, before the FOMC meets again suggests that market volatility may be lower than usual unless we see a truly surprising reading on the labor market.
美元指数技术分析——美元/日元4小时图 来源：TradingView，StoneX正如我之前所指出的，美元/日元往往对美国经济数据发布做出最“干净”的反应。观察图表，该货币对仍处于156.50至159.00的6周区间内，尽管在过去两周内，它在该区间内形成了一系列更高的高点和更高的低点。
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis – USD/JPY 4-Hour Chart Source: TradingView, StoneX As I’ve noted before, USD/JPY tends to have the “cleanest” reaction to US economic releases. Looking at the chart, the pair remains within its 6-week range between 156.50 and 159.00, though it has put in a series of higher highs and higher lows within that range over the past two weeks.
一份强劲的就业报告若暗示经济正在加速，可能会加速近期的看涨趋势，并使159.00进入视野，甚至有可能突破这一关键水平升至两个月高点，尽管如果汇率逼近160.00，对干预的担忧将开始升温。
A strong jobs report that hints at an accelerating economy would likely accelerate the near-term bullish trend and bring 159.00 into view, with potential for a breakout above that key level to two-month highs, though fears of intervention would start to rise if it neared 160.00.
与此同时，一份疲软的就业报告若引发滞胀担忧，可能会打破近期的上升趋势，并可能为下周回测156.60区域的支撑铺平道路。
Meanwhile, a soft jobs report that raises stagflationary fears would likely break the near-term uptrend and could set the stage for a retest of support in the 156.60 zone next week.