在极少数于周四股市抛售前转为看淡股市的华尔街策略师中，有一位警告称，Anthropic PBC 可能进行的首次公开募股（IPO）或许比美国中期选举更具决定性影响。
One of the few Wall Street strategists to turn cautious on stocks ahead of Thursday’s selloff warned that a potential Anthropic PBC debut may prove a more decisive event than the US midterms.
汇丰控股的 Max Kettner 两周前将股票评级从“最大超配”下调至“中性”，理由是无论科技公司如何安排资本支出，围绕科技板块的叙事已转为不利。
HSBC Holdings Plc’s Max Kettner cut his rating on stocks from maximum overweight to neutral two weeks ago, arguing that the narrative around tech had turned unfavorable regardless of how companies approached capital spending.
尽管本周科技股遭遇大幅抛售，他仍认为人工智能交易的基本面依然完好，但选后依然保持谨慎，质疑风险到底出清了多少——毕竟投资者最初几乎未对大选进行对冲。
While he sees the artificial intelligence trade as fundamentally intact despite this week’s heavy selling, he remains cautious after the vote, questioning how much risk could have cleared when investors had done little to hedge the election in the first place.
他说：“真正的风险出清事件，很可能是两周后的 Anthropic IPO（如果成行）。最好的情况大概是：它上市了，但估值是 1 万亿美元，而不是 1.5 万亿美元。”
“The real risk clearing event is probably the Anthropic IPO in two weeks, if it happens. The best case would probably be you come, but you come with a $1 trillion valuation instead of $1.5 trillion valuation,” he said.
Anthropic 计划中的 IPO 面临诸多障碍。近期 AI 相关股票的抛售让市场环境变得不那么宽容，而华盛顿权力更迭也可能改变市场对 Anthropic 应对政治格局能力的预期。
Anthropic’s planned initial public offering faces various hurdles. Recent selling in AI-related stocks has made the market backdrop less forgiving, while a changing of the guard in Washington also risks shifting expectations for Anthropic’s ability to navigate the political landscape.
“它以一个相对较低的估值上市，使得在二级市场实际上开始上涨。或者至少首周不暴跌 20%-30%——因为那显然会很糟糕。”
“You come with a reasonably low valuation, such that in the secondary market you actually start rallying. Or at least not dumping 20-30% in the first week — because that obviously would be horrible.”
Kettner 近年来因成为最早看多当前牛市的策略师之一而声名鹊起。但上个月，他几个月来首次减仓股票。他辩称，投资者情绪的剧烈变化要求在美中期选举前采取更审慎的策略。
Kettner made a name for himself in recent years as one of the first to call the current bull run in stocks. But last month he cut back on his bet on stocks for the first time in months. He argued that sharp mood changes among investors warranted a more cautious approach ahead of the US midterms.
“周三真的非常奇怪，”他告诉彭博社，指的是最初的投票后反弹。“人们问我，‘你为什么还这么谨慎？你为什么还袖手旁观？你在做什么？’”对 Kettner 来说，对反弹以及周四的急剧下跌的解释，与其说是对价格走势的真实反应，不如说是为了迎合价格走势而事后编造的故事，而价格走势确实令投资者感到意外。标普 500 指数出现了自 2025 年 4 月以来最糟糕的一天，而纳斯达克 100 指数和芯片指数则遭遇了自 2020 年 3 月以来最严重的下跌。
“Wednesday was really strange,” he told Bloomberg, referring to the initial post-vote rally. “People were asking me, ‘Why are you still cautious? Why are you still on the sidelines? What are you doing?’”For Kettner, the explanations for the rally and then the sharp fall Thursday felt more like narratives being retrofitted to the price action that had genuinely surprised investors. The S&P 500 had its worst day since April 2025, while the Nasdaq 100 and chip index suffered their steepest declines since March 2020.
Kettner 将当前环境与 2018 年 1 月至 2 月的情况进行了比较，当时波动性产品崩溃，他警告说，当前的抛售感觉像是由动量逆转驱动的清算事件，而不是对基本面的真正重新评估。
Kettner drew a parallel between the current environment and January-February 2018, when volatility products imploded, warning that the present selloff felt like a liquidation event driven by momentum unwinds rather than a genuine reassessment of fundamentals.
具体到人工智能交易，Kettner 表示，超大规模云服务提供商可能会找到支撑位，因为计算能力变得越来越稀缺和昂贵，这可能对拥有现有容量可供出租的公司有利。他补充说，半导体在某个时候可能会“在两天内飙升 20%、30%，仅仅因为它们被推高”，尽管他也承认不知道那个时刻何时会到来。
On the AI trade specifically, Kettner said hyperscalers were likely to find a floor because compute becoming scarcer and more expensive was probably positive for companies with existing capacity to rent out. He added that semiconductors could at some point “rip 20%, 30% in two days just because they squeeze higher,” though he acknowledged he did not know when that moment would come.