美国劳动力市场在10月表现出人意料地强劲——对于担心人工智能引发白领大规模裁员的工人来说，新增就业岗位是一个亮点。专业和商业服务是一个涵盖法律服务、咨询和科学研究服务等白领行业的广泛领域，10月新增7万个薪资岗位。这远高于该领域过去一年平均每月新增1.5万个就业岗位的水平，也是一年前该领域触底后的好消息。
It was a surprisingly strong month for America's labor market — and for the workers worried about an AI-driven white-collar wipeout, new jobs were a bright spot. Professional and business services, a broad sector that includes white-collar industries like legal services, consulting, and scientific research services, added 70,000 payrolls in October. That's well above the sector's average monthly gain of 15,000 jobs throughout the past year, and welcome news for the white-collar workers who saw the sector hit a low just a year ago.
“专业和商业服务的反弹很好地提醒我们，人工智能并没有消灭白领工作，”海军联邦信用合作社首席经济学家希瑟·朗在书面评论中表示。“甚至行政助理招聘也大幅增加，这是另一个令人鼓舞的迹象。”
"The bounce back in professional and business services is a good reminder that AI isn't wiping out white-collar jobs," Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said in written commentary. "There was even a big boost in administrative assistant hiring, another encouraging sign."
虽然人工智能可能并未像外界广泛担心的那样消灭白领工作，但它正在改变从事技术密集型工作的人员的实际工作内容，以及雇主在招聘新员工时所看重的条件。招聘网站ZipRecruiter的经济学家妮可·巴肖告诉《商业内幕》，她认为人工智能正在改变职位要求和需求技能，导致科技相关行业出现波动。雇主可能更看重具备人工智能知识或批判性思维等软技能的人才，而非传统技术技能。
While AI may not be wiping out white-collar work as was widely feared, it is changing what people in tech-heavy roles actually do on the job and what employers are looking for in new hires. ZipRecruiter economist Nicole Bachaud told Business Insider she thinks AI is changing role requirements and the skills in demand, leading to volatility in tech-related industries. Employers may be looking for people with AI knowledge or soft skills like critical thinking, rather than traditional technical skills.
“随着这些技能变化如此之快，我认为我们将看到更多的人员流动，进而导致专业和商业服务、金融活动以及信息行业出现更大的波动，”她说。“未来几个月将真正揭示事态走向，但我确实认为我们会看到一些反复波动。”
"As these skills change so rapidly, I think we're going to see more turnover and, as a result, more volatility in professional and business services, in financial activities, and information," she said. "The next couple of months are really going to be telling of where that lands, but I do think we're going to see some bouncing back and forth."
专业和商业服务岗位的部分增长来自临时员工；10月帮工服务新增1.86万个就业岗位，而9月曾减少5600个。巴肖表示，这表明雇主开始在不招聘新全职员工的情况下做出业务承诺。
Some of the gain in professional and business services comes from temporary staffers; help services added 18,600 jobs in October after a drop of 5,600 in September. Bachaud said that this indicates employers are starting to make business commitments without hiring new full-time workers.
Indeed高级经济学家Cory Stahle告诉《商业内幕》（Business Insider），他怀疑专业和商业服务行业的增长究竟有多大可持续性——并表示该行业就业仍低于其长期趋势。“你可以看到，如果只是延续疫情前的走势，就业岗位会比现在多得多，所以我认为其中一些增长可能是在试图追赶回那个水平，”Stahle说。“不过，仅凭一份报告，特别是针对一个波动较大的行业，现在下结论说是AI或知识工作者的影响还为时过早。”
Still, Cory Stahle, senior economist at Indeed, told Business Insider he wonders how sustainable the growth in professional and business services really is — and said it's still below its long-term trend. "You can see that there are far fewer jobs than we would expect if it just continued what it was doing prior to the pandemic, so I think some of this could be trying to catch back up a little bit with that," Stahle said. "It's too early though from a single report, especially on a noisy industry, to draw any conclusions about AI or knowledge workers."
与此同时，强劲的数据中心建设不足以支撑建筑业。该行业依然削减了就业岗位，从事数据中心及其他商业和工业项目的电工及其他专业承包商的就业增长，不足以抵消其他领域的损失。
Meanwhile, robust data center building wasn't enough to prop up the construction industry. The sector still shed jobs, with gains in electricians and other specialty contractors who work on data centers and other commercial and industrial projects not enough to offset losses elsewhere.
除专业和商业服务外，其他行业也实现了就业净增长；医疗保健行业作为就业市场多年的中流砥柱，新增约4.2万个就业岗位，制造业新增1.9万个。报告中也可能反映了一些假日招聘；运输和仓储业实现了约2.5万个就业岗位的稳健增长，其中快递员和信使占了70%。“大家预期，鉴于高油价、高通胀、高物价、高利率，这个假日购物季可能会有所降温，”Bachaud说。“但看到运输和仓储业，特别是快递服务的这一增长，可能预示着假日购物季的升温程度可能超出预期。”
Beyond professional and business services, other sectors experienced net job growth; healthcare, a stalwart of the job market for years, added about 42,000 jobs and manufacturing added 19,000 jobs. Some holiday hiring was also likely reflected in the report; transportation and warehousing experienced a solid gain of about 25,000, with couriers and messengers accounting for 70% of that. "There's a lot of expectations that maybe this holiday shopping season is a little bit dampened given high gas, high inflation, high prices, high rates," Bachaud said. "But seeing this uptick in transportation and warehousing, especially in courier services, that might be a signal that the holiday shopping season might be ramping up more so than was expected."
总体而言，考虑到前两个月就业估计值被上调、10月就业增长好于预期以及劳动力参与率上升，最新就业报告显示就业市场更加光明。“人们已准备好在这个市场上有所行动，我们开始看到一些被压抑的需求正在释放，”Bachaud说。
Overall, the new jobs report shows a brighter job market, given upward revisions to the previous two months' job estimates and better-than-expected growth in October alongside a rise in labor force participation. "People are ready to make moves in this market, and we're starting to see some of that pent-up demand starting to unlock now," Bachaud said.