
知情人士称,欧洲国家希望俄罗斯先停止对乌克兰的战争,然后才愿意讨论克里姆林宫对欧洲大陆更广泛安全架构的关切;这一立场可能使它们在如何结束这场冲突的最佳方式上与美国产生分歧。
European nations want Russia to halt its war against Ukraine before entertaining any talk of the Kremlin’s concerns about the continent’s broader security architecture, people familiar with the matter said, a stance that risks putting them at odds with the US over the best way to end the conflict.
这些知情人士因讨论私下磋商而要求匿名。他们表示,欧洲官员还坚称,俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京在战前提出的、实际上会削弱北约在东欧存在的各项要求,仍然不可接受。
European officials are also adamant that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s pre-war demands that would effectively roll back NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe are still unacceptable, said the people, who asked not to be identified to discuss private deliberations.
现有安全框架的主要目标之一是阻止俄罗斯攻击欧洲。一些知情人士说,在莫斯科继续对乌克兰发动战争、并违反一系列现有协议的情况下,进行这类讨论没有多大意义。
One of the main goals of the existing security framework is to deter Russia from attacking Europe. It would make little sense to have such discussions while Moscow continues to wage war against Ukraine and is violating an array of existing agreements, some of the people said.
这一做法可能加剧与特朗普政府的紧张关系。特朗普政府一直推动在目前与俄罗斯进行的和平谈判中,把有关欧洲所谓安全架构的提议与其他议题并行讨论。俄罗斯、乌克兰和美国官员定于下周在阿布扎比会晤,这将是自2月以来首次恢复谈判。
That approach risks further tension with the Trump administration, which has been pushing to include proposals about Europe’s so-called security architecture in parallel to other topics in ongoing peace talks with Russia. Russian, Ukrainian and US officials are due to meet in Abu Dhabi next week, resuming negotiations for the first time since February.
白宫未立即回应置评请求。但美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的女婿兼特使贾里德·库什纳在X平台发帖写道,美国的目标是“制定切实可行的安排,解决各方的安全关切”。库什纳在与欧洲和乌克兰官员会谈后发帖称:“我们正在探讨五个主要目标:永久性安全磋商、可靠的危机沟通、更高的军事透明度、降低升级风险的互惠措施,以及一个维系欧洲长期安全与稳定的持久框架。”
The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. But Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and envoy, wrote in a post on X that the US objective was to “develop practical arrangements that address the security concerns of all sides.”“We are exploring five principal goals: permanent security consultations, reliable crisis communications, greater military transparency, reciprocal measures to reduce escalation risks, and an enduring framework for long-term European security and stability,” Kushner said in the post following talks with European and Ukrainian officials.
美国显然在推动达成协议,这让一些欧洲国家的政府感到不安。波兰外交部长拉多斯瓦夫·西科尔斯基周四在华沙对记者说:“我们不应比普京更想要和平。”
The apparent US push to reach a deal has unnerved some European capitals. “We shouldn’t be wanting peace more than Putin does,” Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told reporters in Warsaw on Thursday.
美国的做法也遭到国会民主党人的反对。这对特朗普来说是个问题,因为在本周中期选举之后,民主党势将拿下国会参众两院的多数席位。他们以及持类似立场的共和党人可能会让特朗普迁就普京的努力变得更加复杂。
The US approach has also faced pushback from congressional Democrats. That’s a problem for Trump given that Democrats are set to take majorities of both houses of Congress after this week’s midterm elections. They and like-minded Republicans could complicate Trump’s efforts to accommodate Putin.
“我们已经有一套欧洲安全架构,它叫北约,”科罗拉多州民主党参议员迈克尔·贝内特在X平台上回应库什纳的帖子时写道。“而欧洲安全面临的最大威胁并不是缺乏对话,而是弗拉基米尔·普京。”除了与北约重叠之外,库什纳的提议似乎还重复了欧洲安全与合作组织的许多目标。该组织的历史可追溯至20世纪70年代,成员包括美国、俄罗斯和许多欧洲国家,其宗旨是确保整个欧洲大陆的稳定与和平。
“We already have a European security architecture. It’s called NATO,” Senator Michael Bennet, a Colorado Democrat, said on X in response to Kushner’s post. “And the greatest threat to European security isn’t a lack of dialogue. It’s Vladimir Putin.”Beyond overlapping with NATO, Kushner’s proposal would also appear to duplicate many of the objectives of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, a body dating back to the 1970s that includes the US, Russia and many European nations and whose goal is to ensure stability and peace across the continent.
据这些人士称,一个持续的症结仍然是盟国将向乌克兰提供的安全保障的细节——以确保一旦达成和平协议,俄罗斯不会再次对其发动攻击;以及如果俄罗斯再次进攻,基辅将获得什么帮助。
One sticking point continues to be the details of security guarantees that allies would provide Ukraine to ensure that Russia doesn’t attack it again if a peace deal is reached – and, if it does, what help would Kyiv be provided with, according to the people.
这些人士说,莫斯科反对西方在乌克兰有任何军事存在,而基辅及其欧洲盟友认为,这一条件对于遏制俄罗斯未来再次攻击这个邻国是必要的。
Moscow is against any Western military presence in Ukraine, a condition that Kyiv and its European allies see as necessary to deter Russia from attacking its neighbor in the future, the people said.
包括美国在内的盟国一直在讨论给予乌克兰类似北约共同防御条款(即第五条)的保障。这类支持将包括武器和其他能力,不过基辅的第一道防线将是自己的军队。俄罗斯此前曾要求限制乌军的规模和能力。
Allies including the US have been discussing giving Ukraine guarantees similar to NATO’s mutual defense clause, known as Article 5. That support would include weapons and other capabilities, though Kyiv’s first line of defense would be its own army. Russia has previously demanded that its size and capabilities be restricted.
民众强调,停火应在任何有关战后安全的协议之前达成,并且此类安排需要所有欧洲国家的支持。
The people stressed that a ceasefire needed to come before any agreements relating to post-war security, and such arrangements would need buy-in from all European nations.
在阿布扎比的会谈中,乌克兰和俄罗斯预计将继续之前的讨论,包括关于任何和平协议将如何执行和监督,以及潜在的降级措施。消息人士称,欧洲官员可能会在阿布扎比,但预计只有在取得足够进展的情况下才会参与会谈。
In the Abu Dhabi talks, Ukraine and Russia are expected to pick up where they left off, including with discussions on how any peace agreement would be implemented and monitored, as well as potential de-escalation measures. European officials will likely be in the city but are expected to only take part in talks if there is sufficient progress, the people said.
关于领土的谈判目前基本被搁置,因为这需要更高级别的政治决定。消息人士称,普京仍然坚决要求获得乌克兰东部顿巴斯地区的全部领土,并且没有表现出从这一立场退让的迹象。
Negotiations over territory have been mostly parked for now, as they require higher-level political decisions. Putin remains adamant that he wants the entirety of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine and has shown no sign of moving from that position, the people said.
欧洲官员继续认为,俄罗斯总统目前没有兴趣在未来几个月内认真参与结束战争的会谈,而是专注于试图通过密集的轰炸行动来摧毁乌克兰的士气,尽管他的部队在地面上没有取得进展并且遭受了创纪录的损失。
European officials continue to believe the Russian president currently has no interest in seriously engaging in talks to end the war in the coming months and is focused on trying to break Ukraine’s morale through an intensive bombing campaign, even as his troops make no advances on the ground and suffer record losses.
外交部长马尔科·卢比奥和特朗普特使史蒂夫·维特科夫“认为这与领土有关,”西科尔斯基说。“不,不是。这是关于重建俄罗斯帝国。”他说,“有时看起来受害者承受的压力比侵略者更大。”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump envoy Steve Witkoff “think it’s about territory,” Sikorski said. “No, it’s not. It’s about rebuilding the Russian empire.”“It looks like sometimes more pressure is being put on the victim than the aggressor,” he said.