投资者经历眩晕的一周:政治、人工智能与经济因素交织碰撞 面对短时间内海量信息,众多市场观察人士表示,股市波动剧烈——涨跌两个方向均如此。
Dizzying Week for Investors as Politics, A.I. and the Economy Collide With a lot of information to process in a short time, many market watchers said that the moves were extreme — in both directions.
标普500指数 美国股市交易情况 投资者经历了一周“鞭打式”行情:民主党在中期选举中大获全胜后股市飙升,随后因对人工智能行业的担忧重燃而下跌,周五最终收在两者之间。
S&P 500 index How stocks are trading in the United States Investors faced a whipsaw week in which stocks jumped after Democrats swept the midterm elections, then fell on renewed concerns over the artificial intelligence industry, and ended on Friday somewhere in between.
标普500指数周五收盘连续第四周下跌,单周跌幅2.7%,为去年特朗普总统关税政策出台以来最差单周表现。本周该指数曾涨幅高达1.8%,也曾跌幅达3%,单周振幅为去年4月以来最大。
The S&P 500 index slumped to its fourth-straight weekly loss, of 2.7 percent, on Friday, its worst slide since the unveiling of President Trump’s tariffs last year. The index had gained as much as 1.8 percent and fallen as far as 3 percent for the week, the biggest range of movement in a single week since April.
许多投资者和分析师表示,市场波动极端——无论是上涨还是下跌。到周五,市场似乎出现某种平衡:标普500指数上涨0.3%,科技股云集的纳斯达克指数涨幅更大,前一日它还领跌大盘。
Many investors and analysts said the market moves were extreme — both up and down. By Friday, some equilibrium appeared to emerge: The S&P 500 rose 0.3 percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which was at the forefront of a rout the day before, gained even more.
投资者需要消化大量信息,仿佛同时袭来。选举前的紧张情绪让位于数十年未见规模的民主党大胜。对明朗结果的松口气刚出,随即转为对更严厉人工智能监管的担忧,并叠加部分行业龙头财报不及预期。最后在周五,美国劳动力市场数据强于预期,显示经济依然稳健。
Investors have had a lot of information to process, seemingly all at once. Pre-election jitters gave way to a landslide victory for Democrats on a scale not seen in decades. The relief at a clear result quickly gave way to worries of tougher A.I. regulation, compounded by underwhelming earnings reports by some key industry players. And finally, on Friday, stronger-than-expected data on the U.S. labor market showed the economy remained solid.
“我们建议顾问逢低买入,”Cetera Financial Group首席投资官Gene Goldman表示,“经济表现并不差。”其他人也在动荡中看到机会,预期股市将反弹走高。“听起来虽痛,但我认为这是逢低买入良机,而非人工智能大幅下跌的开端,”Fundstrat联合创始人兼研究主管Tom Lee说道。
“We are telling our advisers to buy the dips,” said Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Financial Group. “The economy is not doing badly.”Others also saw opportunity in the upheaval, expecting stocks to bounce higher. “As painful as it sounds, I think this is a dip-buying opportunity, not the start of a large decline in A.I.,” said Tom Lee, co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat.
总体而言,投资者和分析师表示,他们预计市场将在年底前反弹,期间伴随波动,因为新当选的民主党人将如何监管人工智能建设的计划正在成形。过去两年里,目前由共和党主导的国会和白宫对人工智能行业采取了基本不干预的态度。
Broadly, investors and analysts said they expected the market to rally into the end of the year, with bouts of volatility along the way, as plans for how newly elected Democrats will oversee the A.I. build-out take shape. The current Republican-led Congress and White House have adopted a largely hands-off approach to the A.I. industry over the past two years.
“虽然我们可能会看到选举结果引发的一段市场消化不良期,但我们认为基本面并不支持长期下跌,”瑞银全球财富管理首席投资官马克·海费莱表示。
“While we could see a period of market indigestion following the election results, we do not think fundamentals justify a prolonged downturn,” said Mark Haefele, the chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management.
在这一充满事件的一周之前,投资者就已处于紧张状态,尽管处于技术前沿的许多公司发布了丰厚的利润报告,但周期性的抛售反映出对人工智能行业表现的担忧。
Investors were already on edge before this event-filled week, with periodic sell-offs reflecting concerns about the A.I. industry’s performance, despite bumper profit reports from many of the companies at the forefront of the technology.
抢建数据中心导致公司在债务市场借入巨额资金,却无法保证日后的回报能证明这笔支出的合理性。而且由于公司都在同时扩张,供应链瓶颈给这些激进的商业计划设下了现实约束。
A rush to build data centers had led companies to borrow enormous sums in debt markets, with no promise that returns would later justify the expenditure. And with companies all trying to grow at the same time, supply chain bottlenecks had put real-world constraints on those aggressive business plans.
随后是中期选举,存在结果有争议和法律挑战的可能,以及其他重要市场因素的前景——如与伊朗的战争和利率路径——悬而未决。
Then there were the midterms, with the potential for a contested result and legal challenges, and the outlook for other important market factors, like the war with Iran and the path of interest rates, hanging in the balance.
随着投票结果变得清晰,股市周三上涨,交易员称之为“解脱性反弹”,这是由投资者在竞选结束前一直在场外观望、随后涌入买盘推动的。
As the voting result became clear, stocks rose on Wednesday in what traders call a “relief rally,” fanned by a surge of buying from investors who had been waiting on the sidelines until the campaign was over.
一天后,这种狂热开始消退。两家芯片制造商高通和Arm Holdings公布的盈利不及预期,拖累了行业内其他公司,包括对市场指数影响巨大的英伟达等龙头企业。
A day later, that exuberance began to fade. Two chipmakers, Qualcomm and Arm Holdings, had reported earnings that fell short of expectations, dragging down others in the industry, including heavyweights like Nvidia, which exert a heavy influence on market indexes.
分析人士在评估民主党大选全胜的财务影响时指出,市场对人工智能企业的增长前景进行了根本性的、尽管仍然温和的重新评估。全国各州议会权力的易手,导致许多人认为,对数据中心的更严格监管可能会拖慢得克萨斯州等地的建设计划,全球最大的科技公司正在那里迅速扩建算力产能。
Analysts assessing the financial impact of the Democrats’ electoral sweep pointed to a fundamental, though still modest, reassessment of the growth prospects for A.I. businesses. The shift in power at statehouses around the country led many to suggest that stricter regulation of data centers could slow plans in places like Texas, where the world’s largest tech companies are rapidly building out computing capacity.
标普500指数周四小幅低开,但抛售迅速加速,蔓延为更加恐慌的交易,这源于投资者长期以来对一些人工智能公司高估值背后假设的担忧。标普500指数当天收盘录得近两年来最大单日跌幅。余波在全球范围内回荡。
The S&P 500 opened slightly lower on Thursday, but the sell-off quickly gathered speed, extending into more panicked trading that fed off investors’ long-held concerns about the assumptions underlying the lofty valuations of some A.I. companies. The S&P 500 ended the day with its largest decline in nearly two years. The fallout reverberated around the world.
亚洲各市场在华尔街最严重抛售时段处于休市状态,周五开盘交易混乱。严重程度触发了以科技股为主的韩国综合股价指数(KOSPI)20分钟熔断暂停交易,该指数收盘暴跌6%,受存储芯片制造商SK海力士和三星电子拖累。日本基准日经225指数下跌约6%,跌入技术性熊市,即从近期高点下跌20%。
Markets across Asia, which were closed during the worst of the selling on Wall Street, had a chaotic open to trading on Friday. The severity set off a 20-minute trading halt at the tech-heavy KOSPI, which plunged 6 percent by the end of the session, pulled down by the memory-chip makers SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 sank about 6 percent, dropping the index into a bear market, defined as a 20 percent fall from its recent peak.
但随着欧洲市场开盘交易,局势开始扭转,该地区一些半导体公司股价上涨。
But as trading got underway in Europe the tide began to turn, with some semiconductor companies in the region posting gains.
周五美股开盘前发布的最新美国就业报告也缓解了投资者的担忧。10月非农就业岗位增加16.5万个,超出分析师预期,失业率降至4.1%。
The latest U.S. jobs report, released before U.S. markets opened on Friday, also eased investors’ worries. Employers added 165,000 jobs in October, more than analysts were expecting, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1 percent.
华尔街开市后,市场企稳。纳斯达克指数上涨逾1%,得益于芯片股反弹。英伟达上涨约3%,收复了前一天部分震荡跌幅。
When Wall Street began trading, markets stabilized. The Nasdaq rose more than 1 percent, driven by a rebound in chipmakers. Nvidia gained roughly 3 percent, reversing some of the previous day’s loss.
杰富瑞(Jefferies)策略师莫希特·库马尔(Mohit Kumar)认为,最近的动荡并非人工智能交易正在回吐的迹象,即使未来几年将面临更严格的监管。他在一份研究报告中写道:“有人可能会认为,拥有更多护栏会让人工智能投资在中期更具可持续性。”乔·雷尼森(Joe Rennison)撰写金融市场报道,其报道范围涵盖从记录股市变幻莫测到解读华尔街内部人士往往令人费解的交易决策。
For Mohit Kumar, a strategist at Jefferies, the recent turmoil was not a sign of the unwinding of the A.I. trade, even if it is subject to tougher oversight in the years ahead. “One could argue,” he wrote in a research note, “that having more guardrails makes A.I. investment more sustainable in the medium term.”Joe Rennison writes about financial markets, a beat that ranges from chronicling the vagaries of the stock market to explaining the often-inscrutable trading decisions of Wall Street insiders.