Vote counting is underway in New Zealand’s closely fought election, with neither major political bloc assured of victory and the shape of the next government potentially hinging on whether the centrist Opportunity Party enters parliament for the first time.

Polling booths closed at 7 p.m. local time Saturday and the Electoral Commission said it aims to have preliminary results from 95% of voting places by 11:30 p.m.

Opinion polls this week showed both the center-right and center-left blocs needing the support of Opportunity to claim a majority in the 120-seat parliament and form the next government.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has struggled to convince voters that his National Party — which campaigns on its credentials as the better manager of the country’s finances — can ease cost-of-living pressures or revive a sluggish economy. Opposition Leader Chris Hipkins’ Labour Party, meanwhile, has struggled to provide a compelling alternative. Instead, support has flowed to the smaller parties — ACT and New Zealand First on the right, Opportunity in the center and the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori on the left.

If the National-led government loses office, it will be the first government in the modern political era to be defeated after just one three-year term.

The Opportunity Party has regularly polled at 6% or higher, above the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament. If it does make it in, it may become the kingmaker, with its support crucial to whichever bloc forms the next government. It would be the first time it has entered parliament.

National had 30% support in the latest 1News Verian poll on Tuesday. Even with the backing of ACT, on 10%, and New Zealand First, on 8%, it couldn’t achieve a majority in parliament based on those results.

Labour had 29%, its likely ally the Green Party was on 16%, and Te Pāti Māori, another likely partner, had less than 1% support — also short of a majority.

David Farrar, a political commentator and founder of Wellington-based polling firm Curia Market Research, said the simplest route to power for National is if Opportunity doesn’t make it into parliament.

Based on recent polling, without Opportunity, the center-right bloc of National, ACT and New Zealand First leads the center-left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori. In that scenario, a National-led coalition should be able to form a government.

If Opportunity does make it in, the situation becomes more uncertain for National. Luxon has repeatedly ruled out working with Opportunity and there are large policy differences between that smaller party and the three governing right-leaning parties.

“A complicating factor is whether New Zealand First would agree,” Farrar said. “They’re probably the ones who are most opposed to Opportunity.”A third route for National is for the center-right bloc to perform better than current polls suggest, allowing it to govern without Opportunity even if the party makes it into Parliament.

Labour’s path to power is more straightforward because, barring a surprise surge in support, there really only one: Opportunity makes it into parliament, then Labour strikes a deal with it, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori.

And then there is the complication of an “overhang” in parliament — a word that has firmly entered New Zealand’s political lexicon this election.

Under the country’s mixed-member proportional voting system, each voter has two votes — one for a local electorate candidate and another for a party. An overhang occurs when a party wins more electorate seats than the number of seats it would otherwise be entitled to based on its share of the party vote.

New Zealand’s Parliament normally has 120 seats, but it can expand when there is an overhang. After the 2023 election, the total rose to 123.

This election, both National and Te Pāti Māori could produce overhang seats if they win more electorates than their share of the party vote would otherwise entitle them to. Te Pāti Māori has actively encouraged supporters to give it their electorate vote while backing either the Greens or Labour with their party vote.

Figures on the right of New Zealand politics have also encouraged strategic voting, urging people to give their electorate vote to National and their party vote to ACT or New Zealand First.

Farrar said an overhang could complicate the math for both National and Labour.

It could also mean an abrupt exit from Parliament for some senior National lawmakers. That includes those who rely on the party list, like Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Speaker Gerry Brownlee, and those who may lose their electorate, potentially including Attorney General Chris Bishop, and Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith.