新西兰由国家党领导的右倾联盟希望凭借周六这场悬念迭起的大选继续执政。但下届政府的组成要等到11月27日才会明朗。
New Zealand's right-leaning coalition, led by the National party, hopes to cling on to power based on Saturday's cliffhanger general election. But the shape of the next government will not become clear until 27 November.
以下是结果仍不明朗的原因，以及为何近40万张尚未计数的特别投票可能左右结果。那么谁赢了？
Here's why the outcome remains unclear and why almost 400,000 yet-to-be-counted special votes could sway the result. So who won?
目前胜负难料。周六晚间，国家党领袖克里斯托弗·拉克森和工党的克里斯·希普金斯均未宣称获胜。虽然初步结果显示工党在政党票上以29.3%对29.2%微弱领先国家党，但在混合成员比例代表制（MMP）下，国家党赢得的议会席位更多，为42席，工党为36席。
It's currently too close to call. Neither the National party leader, Christopher Luxon, or Labour's Chris Hipkins claimed the win on Saturday night. While preliminary results show Labour just ahead on the popular vote – 29.3% to National's 29.2% –National won more seats in parliament 42 seats to Labour's 36, under the mixed member proportionate voting system (MMP).
看起来需要66个席位才能组成多数，目前尚不清楚左翼阵营还是右翼阵营能否凑齐这个数字。我们已知将有七个政党进入议会：左翼阵营可能包括工党、绿党和毛利党，右翼阵营包括国家党、新西兰优先党和行动党。
It looks like 66 seats will be needed for a majority, and it's not clear yet whether this can be cobbled together by the left or right bloc. We do know seven parties will be in parliament: likely Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori in the left bloc, and National, NZ First and Act on the right.
视后续事态发展而定，自称中间派的新面孔机会党可能掌握权力平衡。 为何此次大选后大家都在谈论“超额席位”？
Depending on what happens next, newcomers Opportunity, who have positioned themselves as centrist, could hold the balance of power Why is everyone talking about 'overhang' after this election?
新西兰议会通常由120个席位组成。选民有两票：一票投给心仪的政党，一票投给其选区的个人候选人。共有71个选区席位和49个名单席位。名单席位按各政党获得的政党票比例分配。
New Zealand's parliament is typically made up of 120 seats. Voters gets two votes: for their preferred party, and for the individual candidate in their electorate. There are 71 electorate seats and 49 list seats. The list seats are divided up by parties depending on the proportion of the party votes they win.
各政党获得的政党票比例通常必须反映其在议会中获得的席位数。这有点复杂，但如果一个政党赢得的选区席位多于其按政党票比例应得的席位，议会就必须扩容以容纳这些席位。这被称为超额席位。
The share of the party votes generally must reflect how many seats that party gets in parliament. It's a little complicated, but if a party wins more electorate seats than party votes, the parliament has to expand to make room. This is known as the overhang.
周六，国家党和毛利党获得的选区席位比例均超过了其政党票比例，这意味着议会规模可能扩大10或11个席位。按混合成员比例代表制，应该出现超额席位吗？
On Saturday both National and Te Pāti Māori gained more share of the electorates than their party vote, meaning parliament could be 10 or 11 seats bigger. Should an overhang happen under MMP?
并非专门如此，但它可以容纳这种情况。自1996年混合成员比例代表制（MMP）引入以来，已出现过五次超额席位，但这将是新西兰历史上规模最大的议会。
Not specifically, no, but it can accommodate it. Since MMP's introduction in 1996, there have been five overhangs, but this will be the biggest parliament in New Zealand's history.
这也是首次有政治团体大声疾呼、明确要求选民只给他们投选区票，以制造超额席位。毛利党有望凭借这一策略赢得七个毛利选区中的五个席位，而各种右翼团体则呼吁支持者将政党票投给现任联盟伙伴行动党或新西兰优先党，同时支持国家党的选区议员。国家党将获得五到六个超额席位，曾对此发出警告，但似乎无济于事。
It's also the first election where political groups have loudly and specifically asked voters to only give them their electorate vote, to create an overhang. Te Pāti Māori are on track to gain five of seven seats in the Māori electorates with this strategy, while various rightwing groups asked supporters to party vote for current coalition partners Act or NZ First, while backing National electorate MPs. National, who will have five or six overhang seats, warned against this, seemingly to no avail.
批评者称，这种策略性投票破坏了MMP的精神，新西兰人在1990年代投票支持MMP，此前在领先者当选制下出现了一系列扭曲的结果。自2012年以来的两份报告曾建议废除超额席位，但当时的政府选择无视。为何我们还没有明确的结果？两大主要政党在同一晚同时获得如此低的得票数并不典型。
Critics say this strategic voting undermines the spirit of MMP, which New Zealanders voted for in the 1990s after a string of skewed results under first past the post system. Two reports since 2012 have proposed abolishing the overhang, but governments of the time chose to ignore them. Why don't we have a clear result yet? It's not typical for the two main parties to both get such low numbers on the same night.
按目前的结果，右翼阵营有可能组建政府，但所有选票尚未清点完毕。
On current results, the right bloc could put together a government, but all of the votes have yet to be counted.
机会党——按目前的结果，凭借6%的政党票赢得了议会七个席位，首次跨过进入议会所需的5%门槛——可能发挥关键作用。
The Opportunity party – who on current results have won seven seats in parliament with their 6% party vote, crossing the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament for the first time – could play a big part.
拉科森此前表示不会与机会党及其领袖王佳丽对话，但他可能别无选择。谈判要等到11月27日所有特别票清点完毕后才能开始。什么是特别票，为什么它们如此重要？
Luxon previously said he wouldn't talk to Opportunity and its leader Qiulae Wong, but he might have no choice. Talks can't begin until 27 November, once all the special votes are counted. What are special votes, and what makes them so important?
特别票是指居住在海外的人投出的票，或是在投票日在其地理选区之外投票的人投出的票。根据选举委员会的数据，今年特别票总数略低于40万张。
Special votes are those made by people living overseas, or who voted outside their geographical electorate on the day. This year, special votes total just under 400,000, according to the electoral commission.
特别投票结果通常偏向左翼。2023年，毛利党比选举夜结果多获得两个席位，绿党多获得一个席位。国家党失去两个席位。本次选举竞争如此激烈，一两个席位的易手就可能改变联盟间的权力平衡。何时才能知晓下一届政府归属？可能要等到12月才能得知最终结果——正好赶在圣诞节前。
Special vote results typically skew left. In 2023, Te Pāti Māori gained two more seats than election night results suggested and the Greens gained one. National lost two seats. This election is so close that one or two flipped seats could tilt the balance of power between coalitions. When will we know who the next government is? It could be December until a final result is known – just in time for Christmas.