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民主党人如何赢得压倒性的中期选举大胜How Democrats won their blowout midterm victory

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华盛顿——11月7日——在帮助民主党人赢得佐治亚州全部两个美国参议院席位四年后,参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默开始寻找一名能够扩大该党版图的候选人。他在一个意想不到的地方找到了一位:密西西比州。

WASHINGTON, Nov 7 - Four years after helping Democrats win both US Senate seats in Georgia, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer went looking for a candidate who could expand the party’s map. He found one in an unlikely place: Mississippi.

公共检察官斯科特·科洛姆在2023年成为该州一个多世纪以来首位非洲裔联邦法官的道路,曾被密西西比州共和党籍美国参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯阻断。现在,舒默希望他向海德-史密斯的参议院席位发起挑战。舒默为了招募科洛姆意愿极其强烈,以至于他在2024年11月邀请科洛姆及其父亲共进早午餐。他对新闻频道MS Now表示:“我对他说,你必须参选。”

Public prosecutor Scott Colom had seen his path to becoming the state’s first Black federal judge in more than a century blocked in 2023 by US Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, a Mississippi Republican. Now Schumer wanted him to take on Hyde-Smith for her Senate seat. So intent was Schumer to recruit Colom that he invited him and his father to brunch in November 2024. "I said you’ve got to run," he told the news channel MS Now.

两年后,如果科洛姆2000票的领先优势能够保持下去,他将成为自南北战争后重建时期以来密西西比州的首位非洲裔参议员。

Two years later, Colom will become the first Black senator from Mississippi since post-Civil War Reconstruction if his 2,000-vote lead holds.

随着选举官员清点临时选票,科洛姆于周五对记者表示:“密西西比州在全国范围内一直被忽视或处于垫底地位。但我认为这场竞选将对我们国家产生影响。” 科洛姆这场不可思议的参选,是民主党雄心勃勃的推进行动的一部分,旨在竞选那些长期被认为无法取胜的席位,他们押注生活成本上升、选民对总统唐纳德·特朗普的不安以及强有力的本土候选人能够让共和党领地进入争夺范围。

"Mississippi has always been overlooked or at the bottom of things nationally," Colom told reporters on Friday, as election officials counted provisional ballots. "But I think that this race is going to make a difference in our nation." Colom’s improbable run was part of an ambitious Democratic push to compete in races long considered unwinnable, betting that rising costs, voter unease with President Donald Trump and strong local candidates could put Republican territory in play.

周二的中期选举回报了这场豪赌,民主党人从共和党人手中夺取了国会两院的控制权,这是在包括堪萨斯州和得克萨斯州在内的共和党大本营取得一连串胜利的结果。

The gamble paid off in Tuesday’s midterm elections when Democrats seized control of both houses of Congress from Republicans, the result of a string of victories in Republican strongholds including Kansas and Texas.

现在的问题是,民主党人究竟是受益于一个非同寻常的政治时刻,还是找到了一套可以再次使用的战术手册。

The question now is whether Democrats benefited from an extraordinary political moment or found a playbook they can use again.

无论如何,民主党领袖表示,他们计划继续在那些此前被他们判定为共和党稳赢的州争取胜利。

In any event, Democratic leaders said they planned to go on pursuing victories in states they had previously written off as guaranteed Republican wins.

“我们需要确保我们在各地都参与竞争。我们不应该把阵地(拱手让给共和党),”北卡罗来纳州民主党主席安德森·克莱顿说。“我明白大家都很兴奋——我也是——但我同时也在审视我们错失良机的地方。”全方位组织,争取胜利这一战略建立在这样一种信念之上:针对执政党的常规中期选举反弹,将因选民对特朗普的不满和生活成本上涨而放大,从而创造扩大选举版图的机会。

"We need to make sure that we’re competing everywhere. We should not be ceding ground (to Republicans)," said Anderson Clayton, chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party. "I get that everybody is really excited – and I am, too – but I’m also looking at where did we have opportunities that we missed." ORGANIZING TO WIN EVERYWHERE The strategy rested on a belief that the usual midterm backlash against the party in the White House would be amplified by voter frustration with Trump and the rising cost of living, creating an opportunity to expand the electoral map.

民主党在全国范围内更广泛地投资州级党组织,而非将资源集中在少数传统摇摆州。

Democrats invested more broadly in party organizations across the country rather than concentrating resources in a handful of traditional battlegrounds.

“要投资摇摆州,还是投资所有57个州党部,以便全年组织动员、在任何地方都能组织取胜?”民主党全国委员会副主席简·克利布说。“显然,(民主党全国委员会主席肯)马丁选择了我们要在各地取胜,为此他挨了很多骂。有人甚至呼吁他下台。”

“Do you invest in the battleground states or do you invest in all 57 state parties so you can organize year-round and organize to win anywhere?”Jane Kleeb, vice chair of the Democratic National Committee, said. “Obviously (DNC Chair Ken) Martin chose that we’re going to win everywhere and he got a lot of hell for it. People were calling for his head.”

在其他一些地方,某些竞选被视为毫无希望,以至于国家党领导层与民主党候选人毫无联系,结果这些候选人获胜后,领导层反而要四处打听他们的电话号码。

Elsewhere, some races were considered such long shots that national party leaders had no contact with the Democratic candidates, only to find themselves searching for their phone numbers after they won.

到2026年初,民主党民调显示选民在经济问题上向该党倾斜,经济问题向来是共和党的传统强项。

By early 2026, Democratic polling showed voters shifting toward the party on the economy, traditionally a Republican strength.

策略师表示,特朗普对外国商品加征关税,以及他在2月发动对伊朗战争后燃油价格上涨,加速了这些趋势,并说服许多民主党人,他们能在更深层的共和党腹地展开竞争。共和党日益不满随着时间推移,共和党对特朗普处理伊朗战争的方式,以及他决定不聚焦选民最关心的首要问题——生活成本——感到日益沮丧。

Strategists said Trump’s tariffs on foreign goods and the rise in fuel prices after he launched the war against Iran in February accelerated those trends and convinced many Democrats they could compete deeper into Republican turf. REPUBLICANS GROW FRUSTRATED As the year wore on, Republicans grew increasingly frustrated at Trump’s handling of the war in Iran and his decision not to focus on voters’ overwhelming top concern: the cost of living.

民主党人看到了机会,特别是随着特朗普的支持率下降和燃油价格上涨。在本周民主党获得压倒性胜利后,多名政府官员和共和党议员对特朗普依然专注于白宫建设工程并试图与周二的选举结果保持距离感到愤怒。“承认选民的感受究竟有多难?”一名高级政府官员说道。

Democrats saw an opening, particularly as Trump’s approval ratings fell and fuel prices climbed. After Democrats’ sweep this week, numerous administration officials and Republican lawmakers were furious that Trump remained focused on White House construction projects and tried to distance himself from Tuesday’s results. “How hard is it to just acknowledge what voters are feeling?” one senior administration official said.

民主党领导人坚决主张不重复他们眼中特朗普第一任期时的错误——即只针对他开展竞选。相反,他们敦促候选人提出自己的方案,并说服选民他们能够带来解困。

Democratic leaders were adamant they not repeat what they saw as the mistake of Trump’s first term by running only against him. Instead, they urged candidates to put forward their own proposals and convince voters they could deliver relief.

在选举之夜,民主党人看着全国各地由共和党划定的选区纷纷倒向他们。在北卡罗来纳州,共和党人曾通过重新划定选区图试图掌控14个众议院席位中的11个,但他们的失利甚至蔓延到了特朗普以两位数优势获胜的选区。

On election night, Democrats watched Republican-drawn districts across the country fall their way. In North Carolina, where Republicans redrew the map to try to control 11 of 14 House seats, their losses extended into districts Trump won by double digits.

民主党有望拿下这14个席位中的10个。据三位民主党战略家和竞选官员透露,由于这些竞选被视为胜算渺茫且共和党拥有远为充裕的资金,全国党组织甚至都没有与几位众议院候选人取得过联系。

Democrats are poised to capture 10 of the 14 seats. The national party had not even been in touch with several of its House candidates because their races were considered long shots and Republicans had far more cash, according to three Democratic strategists and campaign officials.

保持对负担能力的关注 1月,在美国的一次军事行动中特朗普驱逐了委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗之后,据党内官员透露,民主党领导人召集了众议院议员并传递了一个简单的信息:把重点留在国内的经济议题上。

KEEP THE FOCUS ON AFFORDABILITY After Trump ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a US military operation in January, Democratic leaders gathered House members to deliver a simple message, according to party officials: Stay focused on economic issues at home.

共和党人刚刚任由政府出资的医疗保健补贴到期,导致选民面临更高的成本。

Republicans had just allowed government-funded healthcare subsidies to expire, leaving voters facing higher costs.

民主党最意想不到的胜利之一发生在堪萨斯州,自1932年以来民主党未曾在那里的美国参议院选举中获胜。竞选顾问盖伊·塞西尔向路透社表示,于周二获胜的亚当·汉密尔顿直到4月份才加入竞选,而全国党组织直到最后几周才将重心放在他的竞选上。

One of the Democrats’ unlikeliest wins was in Kansas, where Democrats had not notched a US Senate win since 1932. Adam Hamilton, who won on Tuesday, entered the race only in April, and the national party did not focus on his campaign until the closing weeks, campaign adviser Guy Cecil told Reuters.

“塞西尔谈到民主党时说:‘我们需要拓展对可能性的认知。我们显然纳入了可负担性相关议题。但亚当大谈恢复流程的体面以及团结民众。’”

"We need to expand our idea of what’s possible," Cecil said of the Democratic Party. "We obviously included issues around affordability. But Adam talked a lot about restoring decency to the process and bringing people together."

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