中期选举不仅对民主党人而言是一场全面的胜利，对生殖权利来说，这也是一个特别美好的夜晚。民主党人不仅夺取了国会众议院和参议院的控制权，而且有关该主题的4项投票提案中有3项获得了通过。国会民主党人可以阻止同情反堕胎运动的法官，并敢于让总统唐纳德·特朗普否决新的保护措施。尽管如此，在特朗普白宫任期的剩余时间里，对于堕胎权支持者来说依然存在警告信号。
The midterm was not just a triumph for Democrats broadly; it was specifically a good night for reproductive rights. Not only did Democrats flip the House and Senate, but 3 of the 4 ballot measures on the subject passed. Congressional Democrats can block judges sympathetic to the anti-abortion movement and dare President Donald Trump to veto new protections. Nevertheless, there are warning signs for abortion-rights supporters for the remainder of Trump’s time in the White House.
尽管这可能显得有些违反直觉，但社会保守派将利用这些选举结果试图重新确立他们对共和党的影响力。简而言之，他们的论点是，如果堕胎在竞选中成为一个更重要的议题，共和党的表现本会更好。那些保护堕胎准入的投票提案可以归因于将众多共和党人赶出国会的蓝色浪潮。而在爱达荷州，身处蓝色浪潮中心的选民却舒适地否决了一项将堕胎权写入宪法的提案。
Although it may seem counterintuitive, social conservatives will use these results to try to reassert their influence over the Republican Party. The argument, in short, is that Republicans would have fared better had abortion been a more important issue in the campaign. The ballot measures that protected abortion access can be chalked up to the blue wave that swept so many Republicans out of Congress. And in Idaho, voters in the middle of a blue wave comfortably rejected a proposal enshrining abortion rights.
毫无疑问，在这次中期选举中，堕胎并没有成为一个那么引人注目的议题，特别是与2022年或2024年相比。人们完全可以将这种趋势归因于选民对该议题失去了兴趣，或者只是优先考虑了更紧迫的关切，比如生活成本或腐败问题。
There is no question that abortion was not as visible an issue in this midterm election, especially compared with 2022 or 2024. It is possible to attribute this trend to voters losing interest in the issue, or simply prioritizing more pressing concerns, like the cost of living or corruption.
社会保守派已经在争论称，对堕胎问题缺乏关注压低了共和党人的投票率。“由于共和党人没有将这个问题置于首要位置，动员反堕胎选民变得很困难，”苏珊·B·安东尼反堕胎美利坚组织的传播总监凯尔西·普里查德对《政治报》表示。该组织和其他反堕胎权团体在选举后与《政治报》分享的一份备忘录主张，“在未来两年里，共和党人将不得不弄清楚如何确立一个能够重新激发核心选民积极性的反堕胎立场。”
Already, social conservatives are arguing that a lack of focus on abortion depressed GOP turnout. “With Republicans not bringing the issue to the forefront, it has been difficult to mobilize pro-life voters,” Kelsey Pritchard, communications director for Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, told Politico. A postelection memo from SBA and other anti-abortion-rights groups, shared with Politico, argued that “over the next two years, Republicans are going to have to figure out how to stake out a pro-life position that remotivates the base.”
特朗普和他的团队曾利用这次选举作为推迟采取堕胎行动的借口。但那个借口已经消失了，本次总统任期的倒计时也在不断推进。由路易斯安那州、得克萨斯州、佛罗里达州以及密苏里州、爱达荷州和堪萨斯州总检察长提起的诉讼，可能会迫使政府对米非司酮发布新的限制措施。这些案件以及其他案件要求联邦法院将一项名为《康斯托克法案》的19世纪淫秽法律视为对接收或邮寄堕胎相关物品的全国性禁令。
Trump and his team had used the election as an excuse to postpone action on abortion. But that excuse is gone, and the clock is winding down on this presidency. Lawsuits filed by the attorneys general of Louisiana, Texas and Florida, and Missouri, Idaho and Kansas could force the administration to issue new restrictions on mifepristone. These and other cases ask the federal courts to treat a 19th century obscenity law called the Comstock Act as a national ban on receiving or mailing abortion-related items.
白宫已经暗示了计划限制“第十篇”计划下的避孕药具获取途径，并削减一项旨在为怀孕工人提供便利的法案的影响范围。社会保守派还热衷于限制代孕和体外受精。
The White House has already telegraphed plans to limit contraceptive access under the Title X program, and curtail the reach of a bill accommodating pregnant workers. Social conservatives are also keen to restrict surrogacy and in vitro fertilization.
反堕胎人士可能会指出中期选举，以说服总统这些举措中的任何一项都不会像过去那样带来沉重的政治代价。他们将声称，甚至那些压倒性地拒绝了共和党和总统议程的选民，同时也对爱达荷州的生殖权利提案投了反对票。
Abortion foes will likely point to the midterms to convince the president that none of these steps would be as politically costly as might once have been the case. They will claim that even voters who overwhelmingly rejected the GOP and the president’s agenda also voted against Idaho’s reproductive rights proposal.
这一论点经不起推敲。自最高法院于2022年推翻“罗诉韦德案”（Roe v. Wade）以来，多数关于堕胎的选票提案都获得了通过，这次选举也不例外。内华达州轻松通过了一项将生殖权利写入州宪法的提案。弗吉尼亚州的提案将保护现有政策免受潜在的党派变革影响，并为挑战该州剩余的一些限制措施（包括限制医疗救助计划对堕胎进行报销的限制）创造平台。
This argument doesn’t hold up under scrutiny. Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, most ballot measures on abortion have passed, and this election was no exception. Nevada comfortably passed a measure that wrote reproductive rights into the state constitution. Virginia’s measure will protect existing policy against potential partisan change and create a platform to challenge some of the remaining restrictions in the state, including those limiting Medicaid reimbursement for abortion.
密苏里州的提案是生殖权利获得的具有最重大影响的胜利。2024年，该州选民通过了一项保护生殖权利的提案。随后，共和党人作出了回应，推出了他们自己的选票提案，该提案旨在从受精那一刻起就在州宪法中将堕胎定为刑事犯罪，仅对挽救生命、严重健康威胁以及强奸和乱伦保留狭隘的例外情况。更重要的是，同一修正案承诺禁止针对未成年人的某些形式的性别确认医疗护理。
Missouri’s measure was the most consequential win for reproductive rights. In 2024 the state’s voters passed a measure protecting reproductive rights. Republicans then responded with their own ballot measure that would criminalize abortion in the state constitution from the moment of fertilization, with narrow exceptions for preserving life, severe health threats, and rape and incest. More important, the same amendment pledged to prohibit certain forms of gender-affirming care for minors.
密苏里州共和党人的策略从一开始就是一场精心策划的骗局。除了淡化该提案将使几乎所有手术都沦为刑事犯罪这一事实外，密苏里州共和党人还把赌注压在选民反对跨性别权利的程度大于他们支持堕胎权利的看法上。但最终，超过55%的密苏里州人否决了该提案，即第3号修正案。
The Missouri GOP’s strategy was a put-up job from the beginning. In addition to playing down the fact that it would criminalize virtually all procedures, Missouri Republicans banked on the idea that voters were against trans rights more than they were in favor of abortion rights. But in the end more than 55% of Missourians rejected the measure, Amendment 3.
不仅如此，对堕胎反对者而言，爱达荷州的结果可能很难在其他地方复制，不仅仅是因为爱达荷州是美国最保守的州之一。大约48万名爱达荷州人——几乎占到四分之一——属于耶稣基督后期圣徒教会。该教会强烈反对爱达荷州的选票提案，并斥资100万美元将其击败。目前尚不清楚保守派是否能够在人口结构不同的州复制他们的成功。
What’s more, for abortion foes, Idaho’s result may not be easily replicable elsewhere, and not just because Idaho is one of the nation’s most conservative states. Roughly 480,000 Idahoans — almost 1 in 4 — belong to the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. The church came out strongly against Idaho’s ballot measure and spent $1 million to defeat it. It is not clear that conservatives could repeat their success in a state with different demography.
但认为堕胎对选民而言无关紧要的想法，将诱使许多共和党人。在本周遭到历史性的唾弃之后，这位总统将专注于其卸任后的未来，并可能更愿意迎合大额捐款人和保守派基督徒——他们一直是他最坚定的支持者之一。民主党人可能会将生殖权利视为次要问题，并推迟保护此类权利的立法，而不是挑衅特朗普去行使一项不得人心的否决权。
But the that abortion doesn’t matter to voters will tempt many Republicans. After this week’s historical repudiation, the president will be focused on his post-presidential future and may be more willing to cater to the major donors and conservative Christians who have been among his most consistent supporters. Democrats might see reproductive rights as a secondary issue and postpone legislation protecting them rather than daring Trump into an unpopular veto.
这种犹豫是有先例的：在克林顿和奥巴马总统任内，拥有多数议席优势的民主党人都曾推迟采取生殖权利方面的行动。这种不作为只会强化社会保守派的论调，即共和党人打击堕胎不会受到惩罚。
There is precedent for this kind of hesitation: In the Clinton and Obama presidencies, Democrats with significant majorities delayed action on reproductive rights. That kind of inaction only reinforced social conservatives’ claim that Republicans wouldn’t be punished for cracking down on abortion.
随着2028年影子初选迅速成形，这种论调也可能会再度出现。2028年的主要竞争者——副总统万迪（JD Vance）和国务卿鲁比奥（Marco Rubio）——将不得不克服他们与一位历史上极不受欢迎的总统之间的联系，并重新激发今年选择留在家中未出门投票的选民的热情。鲁比奥和万迪与反堕胎运动的联系都比特朗普更深，预计他们会更迫切地运用联邦权力来打击不孕不育治疗、堕胎和避孕。
That talking point will also likely reappear as the 2028 shadow primary quickly takes shape. The leading 2028 contenders, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, will have to overcome their connection to a historically unpopular president and reinvigorate voters who stayed home this year. Both Rubio and Vance have deeper ties to the anti-abortion movement than Trump does and would be expected to more eagerly wield federal power to crack down on infertility treatment, abortion and contraception.
中期选举结果并没有改变共和党人将在堕胎问题上举步维艰的现实。自2022年以来，堕胎权在投票中除少数几次外几乎次次胜出。尽管如此，社会保守派仍将全力推销他们的主张。一位已无甚可失的总统可能会愿意倾听，而共和党下一任旗手可能会将这次选举视为主张再次让社会保守派成为该党未来核心的理由。
The midterm results don’t change the reality that Republicans will struggle with the abortion issue. Abortion rights have prevailed at the polls all but a handful of times since 2022. Nevertheless, social conservatives will put everything into their pitch. A president with little left to lose may be willing to listen, and the GOP’s next standard-bearer may see this election as reason to once again make social conservatives central to the party’s future.