特朗普政府执政两年来，社会保守派原本期盼在堕胎等福音派基督教选民关心的议题上取得重大胜利，但部分人对总统兑现的承诺感到失望。这种缺乏热情的情绪，因全国竞选推广策略似乎瞄准了所有人唯独不包括他们而进一步加剧。归根结底？福音派基督徒感到被忽视。
Two years into a Trump administration that social conservatives hoped would bring significant victories on abortion and other evangelical Christian voters’ priorities, some are unimpressed by what the president has delivered. The lack of enthusiasm has been exacerbated by a national campaign outreach strategy that seems to be targeting everybody but them.
共和党最忠诚的投票群体出现不满，在选举日前引出一个令人不安的问题：福音派是否仍会忠诚地出来投票，在党派需要他们时给予支持？
The bottom line? Evangelical Christians feel overlooked.
“很多人觉得，这个政府对他们的社会保守议题充耳不闻，”一位保守派操盘手说，该人士要求匿名以便坦率表达。
The discontent among the Republican Party’s most loyal voting bloc raises an uncomfortable question ahead of Election Day: Will evangelicals remain faithful to show up when their party needs them?
担心福音派投票率的共和党人指出，政府淡化社会保守派优先事项（如反堕胎措施），并推行一些让福音派感到不安的政策——特别是其对移民采取的强硬做法——产生了累积效应。
“There’s a lot of people who feel like this administration has got deaf ears to their social conservative concerns,” said one conservative operative, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly.
党派策略师警告称，这加上大多数选民关心汽油和食品杂货价格上涨、担忧政府腐败、对伊朗战争不满等因素，可能酿成灾难性后果。
Republicans concerned about evangelical turnout pointed to the cumulative effect of an administration that they said has downplayed social conservative priorities, such as anti-abortion measures, and enacted policies that made some evangelicals uncomfortable — particularly its combative approach to immigration.
“当福音派选民构成这一基本盘的很大一部分，而他们并不十分热情、不兴奋、感到沮丧、不觉得自己得到了想要的东西时，”专注于基督教外联工作的共和党操盘手科尔·穆齐奥说，“这往往会影响热情和参与度。”
Party strategists warn that — coupled with concerns from most voters about the rising costs of gas and groceries, worries of government corruption, and dissatisfaction with the Iran war — could be a recipe for disaster.
与最近几个选举周期不同，堕胎议题在竞选信息传递中扮演的核心角色减弱——候选人转而聚焦于可负担性问题。但即使在竞选真正拉开帷幕之前，反堕胎活动人士就因政府的暧昧态度而感到被背叛。卫生与公众服务部并未寻求限制堕胎药的获取——甚至批准了一种新的米非司酮通用名药版本——而活动人士对部分卫生与公众服务部官员的反堕胎资历仍持怀疑态度。
“When evangelical voters make up a substantial chunk of that base, and they’re not overly enthusiastic, they’re not excited, they’re frustrated, they don’t necessarily feel like they got what they asked for,” said Cole Muzio, a Republican operative who focuses on Christian outreach. “That tends to affect enthusiasm and participation.”Unlike recent election cycles, abortion issues have played less of a central role in campaign messaging — candidates instead have focused on affordability issues. But even before campaigning began in earnest, anti-abortion activists felt betrayed by the administration’s ambivalence. The Health and Human Services Department hasn’t sought to restrict access to abortion pills — and even approved a new, generic version of mifepristone — while activists remain skeptical of some HHS officials’ anti-abortion bona fides.
一些人还曾希望司法部能通过《康斯托克法》在全国范围内强制执行堕胎禁令。这并未发生。
Some had also hoped that the Justice Department would enforce a nationwide abortion ban through the Comstock Act. It hasn’t happened.
这一议题对福音派历来至关重要。公共宗教研究所在2022年最高法院作出具有里程碑意义的堕胎裁决后进行的一项调查发现，37%的福音派选民表示只会为在堕胎问题上观点一致的候选人投票。
The issue has been historically important to evangelicals. The Public Religion Research Institute found in a survey conducted just after the Supreme Court handed down its landmark abortion decision in 2022 that 37% of evangelical voters would only cast ballots for candidates who share their views on abortion.
“如果你是单一议题选民，”这位保守派操盘手说，“你可能就会选择不参加这次选举。”
“If you are a single-issue voter,” the conservative operative said, “you might just sit out” this election.
另一个让福音派选民感到痛心的问题是政府采用的家庭分离政策，以及移民执法人员杀害美国公民的事件。全国福音派选民协会主席沃尔特·金表示，候选人必须在推动移民执法和家庭价值观之间取得平衡，才能吸引福音派选民。
Another sore spot for evangelical voters has been the administration’s use of family separation and the killings of American citizens by immigration officers. Walter Kim, the president of the National Association of Evangelical Voters, said candidates must balance promoting immigration enforcement and family values to appeal to evangelicals.
“如果一位候选人能够主张……强有力的边境管控，”金说，“同时认识到，不，福音派强烈反对家庭分离。”他补充说，许多候选人在这些问题上忽略了细微差别，有些人错误地将这个群体视为一个整体或“漫画式形象”，尽管这个群体内部观点多元。
“If a candidate could advocate for … strong borders,” Kim said, “while simultaneously recognizing, no, evangelicals strongly do not want family separation.”He added that many candidates are missing the nuance on these issues, and some mistakenly view the community as a monolith or a “caricature” despite the bloc’s diversity of views.
“福音派在寻找能够处理更多复杂性、并能与福音派社区进行更多互动的候选人，”金说。
“Evangelicals are looking for candidates who are able to hold a bit more complexity and engagement with the evangelical community,” Kim said.
白宫发言人劳伦·比斯在给《华盛顿太阳报》的声明中表示，特朗普政府兑现了总统的承诺。
White House spokesperson Lauren Bis said in a statement to The Washington Sun that the Trump administration has delivered on the president’s promises.
“特朗普总统是‘让美国再次伟大’基本盘的终极动员者，”比斯说。“他承诺保卫边境安全，将犯罪的非法移民从美国社区移除，恢复宗教自由，并扭转前届政府的灾难性政策。”白宫上个月发布了一份特朗普为宗教美国人所做之事的清单，包括设立白宫信仰办公室和联邦机构信仰中心，以及成立宗教自由委员会。
“President Trump is the ultimate turnout driver for the MAGA base,” Bis said. “He promised to secure our border, remove criminal illegal aliens from American communities, restore religious liberty, and reverse the disastrous policies of the previous administration.”The White House released last month a list of what Trump has done for religious Americans, including creating the White House Faith Office and Centers for Faith in federal agencies, as well as establishing the Religious Liberty Commission.
致力于动员保守派基督教选民的操盘手描述了一种全国化的竞选环境，在这种环境下，竞选成为对白宫的公投，而开支决策则在华盛顿做出。
Operatives who work to activate conservative Christian voters described a nationalized campaign environment in which the races are a referendum on the White House and the spending is being decided in Washington.
多位接受《太阳报》采访的操盘手表示，他们预计福音派的投票率将与以往的中期选举持平。但其中一些人表示，即使是最可靠的选民也说，该党更广泛的竞选策略未能有效触达社会保守派。
Multiple operatives who spoke with The Sun said that they anticipated evangelical turnout to be on par with previous midterm elections. Some of them, though, said even the most reliable voters say the party’s broader campaign strategy has failed to reach social conservatives effectively.
“我觉得他们只是象征性地表示支持，”基督教政治组织“信仰获胜”的创始人查德·康奈利说。“但你觉得任何竞选团队会在动员福音派选民投票上花多少钱？”
“I think they nod toward it,” said Chad Connelly, founder of Faith Wins, a Christian political group. “But how much do you think any campaign spends on turning out the evangelical vote?”
“他们投放电视广告和数字广告，”康奈利补充道。但他表示，这并非真正的外联，即“说福音派的语言”。一些政治操盘手和活动人士反驳称，不会有比典型中期选举更多的福音派选民选择在家不投票。《编年史》杂志首席执行官兼发行人埃里克·蒂特塞尔表示，没有特别理由预期今年福音派投票率的下滑会比其他群体更大。
“They do the TV ads and the digital ads,” Connelly added. But he said it isn’t authentic outreach, where they “speak the evangelical language.”Some operatives and activists disputed that more evangelicals could stay home than in a typical midterm. Eric Teetsel, the CEO and publisher of Chronicles Magazine, said there was no particular reason to expect evangelical voting to have a greater downturn than other groups this year.
“如果福音派不出来投票，那将是因为其他所有共和党选民不出来投票的同一个原因，”蒂特塞尔说。
“To the extent evangelicals don’t turn out, it will be because of the same reasons all other GOP voters don’t turn out,” Teetsel said.
“信仰与自由联盟”创始人拉尔夫·里德告诉《太阳报》，他没有看到政府在堕胎问题上的立场抑制投票率的证据，尽管他希望他们在竞选途中能更明确地展示支持生命的立场。
Ralph Reed, founder of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, told The Sun that he doesn’t see evidence of the administration’s posture on abortion suppressing turnout, though he wished they would be more demonstrably pro-life on the campaign trail.
“我有点担心，我认为共和党整体上在多布斯案判决以及2022年和2024年大选后，对生命议题心存畏惧，”里德说。“他们有点不敢提及生命议题，我认为这是个错误。” 与唐纳德·特朗普总统和共和党国会领袖有关联的资金雄厚的建制派团体提供的资金，构成了共和党竞选活动的骨干。但一些由党领导层出资并主导的外联活动和广告，一直难以触动福音派的优先关切。
“I am a little concerned that I think the Republican Party writ large have been fearful of the life issue after the Dobbs decision and the 2022 and 2024 elections,” Reed said. “They are a little bit gun-shy about ever bringing up the life issue, and I think that’s a mistake.”Money from cash-rich establishment groups affiliated with President Donald Trump and Republican congressional leaders has formed the spine of the Republican campaign. But some outreach efforts and ads — paid for and directed by party leadership — have struggled to connect with the priorities of evangelicals.
当被要求置评时，共和党全国委员会指引《太阳报》联系底特律180教会的资深牧师洛伦佐·休厄尔。休厄尔在2024年总统竞选期间欢迎特朗普到访其教会，曾在共和党全国代表大会上发言，并为特朗普的第二次就职典礼祈祷。
When asked for comment, the Republican National Committee directed The Sun to Lorenzo Sewell, the senior pastor at 180 Church in Detroit. Sewell welcomed Trump to his church during the 2024 presidential campaign, and he spoke at the Republican National Convention and prayed at Trump’s second inauguration.
塞维尔对《太阳报》表示，福音派人士的任何不满都源于对媒体和民调的不满，而非对总统的不满。他说，这种不满不会阻止他们去投票。
Sewell told The Sun that any frustration from evangelicals is rooted in frustration with the media and polling, not with the president. He said that frustration wouldn’t keep them from voting.
“塞维尔说：“没有哪位牧师比我更有影响力。”他指出，影响力的增强是因为特朗普。
“There is no pastor that has more influence than me,” Sewell said, noting that the increased influence was because of Trump.
塞维尔说，信仰领袖中出现了基层行动，包括本月在密歇根州大急流城举行的一次聚会，约150位信仰领袖与开发商一道出席，推动经济机会区的设立。“我们看到了势头，”他说。
Sewell said there has been grassroots action among faith leaders, including a gathering of about 150 of them along with developers this month in Grand Rapids, Michigan, to push for economic opportunity zones. “We’re seeing momentum,” he said.
对于任何考虑不参加这次选举的福音派人士，塞维尔传达了一个信息：待在家里会强化福音派在中期选举中投票表现不佳的说法。
For any evangelical considering sitting out this election, Sewell had a message: Staying home would reinforce a narrative that evangelicals don’t vote well in the midterms.
“塞维尔说：“你们指望总统做点什么，但基督徒甚至都不去投票。”他指的是福音派对特朗普没有推动堕胎禁令感到失望。“穆斯林投票比基督徒多。”穆齐奥表示，除了部分福音派认为偏离其优先事项的零散信息传递外，让一些选民认为不真实的外部团体来传递信息也没有帮助。
“You’re expecting the president to do something when Christians don’t even vote,” Sewell said, referring to disappointment from evangelicals that Trump didn’t push for an abortion ban. “Muslims vote more than Christians.”Muzio said that beyond the scattered messaging that some evangelicals say misses the mark on their priorities, having the messaging come from outside groups that some voters perceived as inauthentic hasn’t helped.
“全国层面的信息传递很烂，”穆齐奥说。“许多全国性团体，搞得那么草根造假，而且那么消极、恶毒或不切实际。”
“The messaging nationally sucks,” Muzio said. “A lot of these national groups, it’s so astroturf and it’s so negative, nasty or unreal.”
他以德克萨斯州共和党参议员提名人肯·帕克斯顿为例，指出帕克斯顿有贪腐指控前科，且其妻子去年曾以“圣经理由”申请离婚。
He used the Texas Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton as an example, noting Paxton’s history of corruption allegations and his wife filing for divorce last year “on biblical grounds.”
“你可以被说服：‘嘿，这就是选择，为了在华盛顿最好地体现你的价值观，这是最好的选择，’”穆齐奥谈到帕克斯顿时说。“但你无法被说服去接受这个人本身。”
“You can be sold on, ‘Hey, this is the choice, and in order to best reflect your values in D.C., this is the best choice to make,’” Muzio said of Paxton. “But you can’t be sold the person.”
特朗普周一在堪萨斯州的集会上向福音派选民喊话，讲述了他与一位达拉斯地区牧师的一次明显对话。特朗普说，这位牧师曾相信特朗普将带领基督徒进入一个“别人无法做到”的信仰繁荣期。“结果证明他是对的，”特朗普对人群说。
Trump made his pitch to evangelicals during his Kansas rally on Monday by relaying an apparent conversation with a Dallas-area pastor. Trump said the pastor had believed Trump was going to lead Christians to a period of prosperity in the faith that “nobody else can do.”“And he turned out to be right,” Trump told the crowd.