特朗普支持率下滑，白人福音派仍是其共和党基本盘南卡罗来纳州布莱斯伍德 —— 许多在2024年将美国总统唐纳德·特朗普送回白宫的选民正在离他而去。但路透/益普索民调以及对白人福音派基督徒的采访显示，他们仍是特朗普最可靠的选民群体，并可能在11月3日的中期选举中发挥关键作用。
As Trump’s support slips, white evangelicals remain his Republican bedrock BLYTHEWOOD, South Carolina – US President Donald Trump is losing ground among many of the voters who returned him to the White House in 2024. But Reuters/Ipsos polling and interviews with white evangelical Christians show they remain his most reliable constituency and could prove crucial in the Nov 3 midterm elections.
在特朗普创纪录的低支持率令共和党陷入守势之际，强劲的福音派选民投票率可能有助于该党限制因选民对生活成本和伊朗战争不满而导致的席位损失。
With Republicans on the defensive amid record-low approval ratings for Trump, strong evangelical turnout could help the party limit losses driven by voter frustration over the cost of living and the war in Iran.
上周，这种忠诚度在南卡罗来纳州布莱斯伍德的村庄教会（Village Church）一家福音派教堂得到展示，数百名信徒聚集聆听牧师埃里克·埃斯泰普（Erik Estep）每周一次的“圣经与政治”讲道。背景是：一场共和党把持的美国参议员席位竞选意外陷入胶着。
That loyalty was on display last week at Village Church, an evangelical congregation in Blythewood, South Carolina, where hundreds of worshippers gathered for a weekly “Bible and Politics” sermon by Pastor Erik Estep. The backdrop: an unexpectedly competitive race for a Republican-held US Senate seat.
在主礼拜大厅内，巨大的视频屏幕和音乐会风格的灯光构成背景，埃斯泰普并未为某位候选人或政党背书。但他在反对赌博的讲道中——此前他曾就堕胎和社会主义发表过讲道——敦促以白人为主的教区信徒通过圣经视角审视政治。
Speaking in the main worship hall, framed by a giant video screen and concert-style lighting, Estep did not endorse a candidate or party. But as he spoke against gambling, following sermons on abortion and socialism, he urged his predominantly white parishioners to view politics through a biblical lens.
“我相信教会是我国真理的堡垒，”埃斯泰普在讲台上说。“这需要像你们这样的人和像这样的教会，在精神和道德上保护这个国家。”这一信息引起了72岁的退休制药高管凯伦·惠廷（Karen Whiting）的共鸣，她计划投票给共和党人达琳·格雷厄姆（Darline Graham），而非民主党人安妮·安德鲁斯（Annie Andrews）。格雷厄姆由州长任命，接替其已故兄弟、参议员林赛·格雷厄姆（Lindsey Graham）的席位。
“I believe the church is the bulwark of truth for our nation,” Estep said from the stage. “And it will take people like you and churches like this church to protect this nation spiritually and morally.”The message resonated with Karen Whiting, a 72-year-old retired pharmaceutical executive who plans to vote for Republican Darline Graham over Annie Andrews, the Democrat. Graham was appointed by the governor to fill the seat of her late brother, Senator Lindsey Graham.
惠廷提到担心民主党会允许跨性别女孩和女性参加女子体育比赛，这与路透社上周在南卡罗来纳州采访的其他白人福音派信徒一样，他们将社会和宗教议题置于经济担忧之上。
Whiting cited concerns that Democrats would allow transgender girls and women to compete in female sports, echoing other white evangelicals Reuters interviewed in South Carolina last week who prioritised social and religious issues over economic concerns.
“我是基于圣经原则投票，我不认为民主党代表圣经原则，”惠廷说。“没有上帝，这个国家会失败。”如果来到村庄教堂的访客需要更明确的投票指引，教堂大厅提供的一份候选人指南几乎不留疑问。这份指南由保守派基督教倡导团体棕榈家庭委员会制作，并分发给南卡罗来纳州各地的教堂，它在所有七个评级议题上都给格雷厄姆打了绿色的勾，包括对堕胎药物和性别肯定护理的限制，而安德鲁斯在大多数议题上则得到了红色的叉。
“I’m voting for biblical principles, and I do not believe the Democratic Party stands for biblical principles,” Whiting said. “Without God, this country’s going to fail.”If visitors to Village Church needed more explicit guidance on how to vote, a candidate guide available in the church lobby left little doubt. Produced by the conservative Christian advocacy group Palmetto Family Council and distributed to churches across South Carolina, it awarded Graham green check marks on all seven issues it rated, including restrictions on abortion medication and gender-affirming care, while Andrews received mostly red X’s.
安德鲁斯对福音派选民优先事项提出了不同的解读。她在给路透社的一份声明中说，她曾走访福音派教堂，会见了不同信仰、政治倾向和背景的选民，发现他们主要关心经济。“他们正为所有东西的成本而挣扎。这就是我参选的原因，”她说。
Andrews offered a different reading of evangelical voters’ priorities. In a statement to Reuters, she said she had visited evangelical churches and met voters of various faiths, political persuasions and backgrounds, finding that they were chiefly concerned about the economy. “They’re struggling with the cost of everything. That’s why I’m running,” she said.
牢固的纽带 路透社/益普索民调显示，特朗普在白人福音派中的支持率从2025年1月的77%下降至10月的63%。这一跌幅略小于他在整体选民中的下降幅度，后者从47%降至31%，而白人福音派仍然是路透社/益普索追踪的唯一一个主要人口群体，特朗普在其中的支持率超过60%。
Strong bonds Reuters/Ipsos polling shows Trump’s support among white evangelicals fell to 63% in October from 77% in January 2025. The decline is slightly smaller than his drop among the electorate as a whole, from 47% to 31%, and white evangelicals remain the only major demographic group tracked by Reuters/Ipsos where his support tops 60%.
这位三度结婚的特朗普与白人福音派的纽带经受住了长达十年的丑闻和调查，包括数十项性不端指控（他予以否认）以及一起涉及色情明星的封口费案件。共和党面临的问题是，经济压力和对伊朗战争（现已进入第八个月）的不满，是否正在削弱这种纽带。
The thrice-married Trump’s bond with white evangelicals has survived a decade of scandals and investigations, including dozens of allegations of sexual misconduct, which he denies, and a hush-money case involving a porn star. The question for Republicans is whether economic pressures and unhappiness over the Iran war, now in its eighth month, are weakening that bond.
路透社在南卡罗来纳州两座教堂对15人的采访显示，他在白人福音派选民中的掌控力依然稳固。在距布莱斯伍德约90分钟车程的斯帕坦堡市，乡村教会和卡罗来纳浸信会的15名受访者中，只有两人表示正在考虑安德鲁斯，无人表示要放弃特朗普。
Reuters interviews with 15 people at two South Carolina churches suggested that his hold on white evangelical voters remained strong. At Village Church and Carolina Baptist Church in the city of Spartanburg, about a 90-minute drive from Blythewood, only two of the 15 said they were considering Andrews, and none indicated they were abandoning Trump.
尽管有几人表达了对伊朗冲突和汽油价格上涨的不满，但多数人表示信任特朗普能阻止伊朗获得核武器，或者像特朗普一样，将通胀归咎于民主党总统乔·拜登任内推行的政策。
While several voiced frustration with the Iran conflict and rising gas prices, most said they trusted Trump to keep Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon or, like Trump, blamed inflation on policies enacted under Democratic President Joe Biden.
领导基督教选民参与组织“信仰必胜”的福音派活动人士查德·康纳利表示，福音派虽然“不喜欢支付更高的价格”，但同样为社会议题所驱动。他说，在他本轮选举周期走访的近二十几个州中，对跨性别运动员的担忧“确实无处不在”。
Chad Connelly, an evangelical activist who heads the Christian voter-engagement group Faith Wins, said that while evangelicals “don’t like paying higher prices”, they are equally animated by social issues. Concerns about transgender athletes are “really playing everywhere” across the nearly two dozen states he has visited this election cycle, he said.
白人福音派对特朗普的忠诚，印证了研究宗教与政治的 nonprofits 组织“公共宗教研究所”所长罗伯特·P·琼斯所称的、在2016年大选中形成的“大妥协”。
White evangelicals’ loyalty to Trump reflects what Robert P. Jones, president of the Public Religion Research Institute, a non-profit organisation that studies religion and politics, calls a “grand bargain” forged during the 2016 election.
琼斯说，许多福音派人士对他的个人操守视而不见，以换取他承诺限制堕胎和LGBTQ权利、推进保守的基督教美国生活愿景，并推行严格的移民政策——一些支持者认为这些政策是在维护该国的白人基督教身份。
Many evangelicals have overlooked his personal conduct in exchange for his commitment to curtail abortion and LGBTQ rights, advance a conservative Christian vision of American life and pursue strict immigration policies that some supporters see as preserving the country’s white Christian identity, Jones said.
琼斯曾就基督教民族主义在美国政治中的兴起大量著述，他对路透社表示：“事实证明，对这个群体来说，这比他们在加油站要付的钱更有感召力。”为何福音派至关重要根据公共宗教研究院（PRRI）的一项调查和非党派的皮尤研究中心对已验证选民的分析，白人福音派约占美国成年人口的13%，却占特朗普2024年获胜联盟的近三分之一。皮尤研究中心称，在特朗普的三次总统竞选中，每次都有超过80%的白人福音派投票支持他。他们与黑人新教福音派截然不同，后者绝大多数支持民主党。
“That has proven to be more powerful for this group than what they’re having to pay at the gas pump,” Jones, who has written extensively about the rise of Christian nationalism in American politics, told Reuters. Why evangelicals matter White evangelicals make up about 13% of US adults but nearly a third of Trump’s winning coalition in 2024, according to a PRRI survey and a validated-voter analysis by the non-partisan Pew Research Center. More than 80% voted for Trump in each of his three presidential campaigns, according to Pew. They differ sharply from black Protestant evangelicals, who overwhelmingly support Democrats.
福音派的忠诚度在南卡罗来纳州以外的参议院竞选中也可能起决定性作用，这些竞选可能有助于决定国会控制权，包括在爱荷华州和堪萨斯州，白人福音派占选民的很大比例。
Evangelicals’ loyalty could also prove pivotal in Senate races beyond South Carolina that may help determine control of Congress, including in Iowa and Kansas, where white evangelicals make up a significant share of the electorate.
民意调查显示，南卡罗来纳州的竞选形势胶着。本周，倾向共和党的民调机构特拉法尔加集团（Trafalgar Group）发布的一项调查显示，安德鲁斯以3个百分点的差距落后于格雷厄姆。
Opinion polls suggest the race in South Carolina is close. This week Trafalgar Group, a Republican-leaning pollster, released a survey showing Andrews trailing Graham by 3 percentage points.
格雷厄姆面临的部分挑战源于一些保守派对她被任命参议员席位仍存芥蒂。即使获得特朗普助选，这位政治新人也仅在8月的党内决选中以微弱优势击败了联邦众议员拉尔夫·诺曼（Ralph Norman），这凸显了部分共和党人对她的经验和保守派资历存疑。格雷厄姆竞选团队的一位发言人未回应置评请求。
Part of Graham’s challenge stems from lingering unease among some conservatives over her appointment to the Senate seat. Even after a boost from Trump, the political newcomer only narrowly defeated US Representative Ralph Norman in the party’s August run-off, underscoring questions among some Republicans about her experience and conservative credentials. A spokesperson for the Graham campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
然而，即使是对格雷厄姆不太热衷的福音派选民，如53岁的凯文·托马斯，也表示他们觉得别无选择。参加了村庄教会（Village Church）布道会的托马斯说，尽管安德鲁斯最近在一则竞选广告中表示，她既反对跨性别女性参加女子体育比赛，也反对为未成年人实施性别肯定手术，但他不信任安德鲁斯在跨性别问题上的立场。
Yet even evangelicals lukewarm on Graham, like 53-year-old Kevin Thomas, said they felt they had no choice. Thomas, who attended the Village Church sermon, said he did not trust Andrews on transgender issues, despite a recent campaign ad in which she said she opposed both transgender women competing in women’s sports and gender-affirming surgeries for minors.
“我倾向于捏着鼻子投票给格雷厄姆，”曾支持诺曼的托马斯说。“我不愿牺牲六年时间，让一名民主党人代表我们南卡罗来纳州。” 路透社
“I’m leaning towards holding my nose and voting for Graham,” said Thomas, who had backed Norman. “I’m not willing to sacrifice six years of having a Democrat representing us in South Carolina.”REUTERS