本周原油价格大幅下跌，因投资者寄希望于民主党在美国中期选举中获胜将迫使伊朗战争结束。
Crude oil prices sold off this week as investors hoped the Democratic victory in the U.S. midterm elections would force an end to the Iran war.
但分析人士称，中东局势依然紧张，海湾国家仍在为事态升级做准备。在民主党于1月接管国会之前，其选择有限。而唐纳德·特朗普总统重申，他不会允许伊朗拥有核武器。
But tensions remain high in the Middle East, with the Gulf states still bracing for escalation, analysts say. The Democrats' options are limited until they take control of Congress in January. And President Donald Trump has reiterated that he will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.
分析人士称，尽管本周人们越来越希望民主党在中期选举中的决定性胜利将终结冲突，但美国和伊朗正冲向重燃战火。
The U.S. and Iran are careening toward renewed war despite growing hopes this week that the Democrats' decisive midterm election victory will bring the conflict to an end, analysts say.
在副总统JD·万斯公开将共和党的惨败归咎于战争后，原油价格在过去五个交易日下跌逾16%。万斯的言论引发了关于政府内部是否仍支持继续与伊朗冲突的疑问。
Crude oil prices fell more than 16% over the last five trading days after Vice President JD Vance publicly blamed the Republicans' stinging loss on the war. Vance's remarks raised questions about whether there is still support within the administration to continue the conflict with Iran.
民主党计划利用其在国会两院的舒适多数优势，通过一项战争权力决议，要求唐纳德·特朗普总统结束战争。但分析人士称，自选举以来中东紧张局势并未缓和，且民主党要等到1月才宣誓就职。
The Democrats plan to use their comfortable majorities in both chambers of Congress to pass a war powers resolution that demands President Donald Trump end the war. But tensions in the Middle East have not eased since the election, and the Democrats aren't sworn in until January, the analysts say.
“整周我们都注意到，海湾地区对局势升级的担忧日益加深，而相隔数千英里的市场参与者却因头条新闻驱动，对避免冲突抱有乐观情绪，两者之间存在背离，”加拿大皇家银行资本市场全球大宗商品策略主管赫利马·克罗夫特周五在给投资者的报告中表示。
"Throughout the week, we were struck by the divergence between deepening escalation concerns in the Gulf and the headline driven off-ramp optimism of market participants thousands of miles away," Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told investors in a note Friday.
更多袭击 据海事安全机构称，选举以来，多艘油轮在阿曼附近遭袭，造成一名海员死亡。伊朗的也门胡塞盟友继续向邻国沙特阿拉伯发射导弹。
More attacks Several oil tankers have come under attack near Oman since the election, killing one seafarer, according to maritime security agencies. Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen continue to fire missiles at neighboring Saudi Arabia.
与此同时，美军军力部署仍在继续，第三个航母打击群正驶往该地区。咨询机构Rapidan Energy认为，随着外交陷入停滞，战斗重燃的可能性为80%。
Meanwhile, the U.S. military buildup continues, with a third carrier strike group en route to the region. The consulting group Rapidan Energy sees an 80% chance that fighting will resume as diplomacy stalls.
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周四告诉记者，他将很快决定是否再次袭击伊朗。
President Donald Trump told reporters Thursday that he will make a decision soon on whether to attack Iran again.
“如果可能的话，我宁愿不摧毁该国的其余部分，但也许我将不得不这么做，”特朗普在椭圆形办公室说。“你们很快就会知道了。”
"I would rather not destroy the rest of the country if possible but maybe I'll have to," Trump said in the Oval Office. "You'll know soon enough."
“我们已严阵以待，”总统说。“如果我们必须完成伊朗的其余事务，我们非常坚定。” 价格风险 美国中央司令部前能源顾问、拉皮丹能源集团总裁鲍勃·麦克纳利表示，随着战斗重燃，原油价格将再次飙升至每桶100美元以上。周五，国际基准布伦特原油交易价格超过97美元，而美国原油价格在90美元左右。
"We're locked and loaded," the president said. "If we have to do the rest of the Iran thing, we're very much locked in." Price risk Crude oil prices will vault above $100 a barrel again in response to renewed fighting, said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan and a former energy advisor to President George W. Bush. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was trading above $97 on Friday while U.S. crude was around $90.
“特朗普总统决心将阻止伊朗获得核武器、迫使其放弃核能力作为一项遗产，几乎不惜一切代价，”麦克纳利周五在CNBC的《Squawk Box Asia》节目中表示。
"President Donald Trump is determined as a legacy item, almost at all costs, to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, having them give up their nuclear capabilities," McNally told CNBC's " Squawk Box Asia " on Friday.
“另一方面，伊朗政权不愿意这样做，”这位分析师说。他说，只要美伊之间的这一核心分歧持续存在，升级动态就会保持不变。
"The Iranian regime, on the other hand, is not willing to do it," the analyst said. The escalation dynamic remains in place so long as that core difference between the U.S. and Iran persists, he said.
前总统乔·拜登的能源顾问阿莫斯·霍克施泰因表示，战争风险依然存在，特别是因为特朗普不再面临未来的选举。他告诉CNBC的《Power Lunch》节目，汽油、柴油和航空燃油价格都将因此飙升。 伊朗挑衅 自大选以来，伊朗一直在挑衅特朗普政府。伊朗最高领袖穆贾塔巴·哈梅内伊的社交媒体账号称，中期选举结果后，“美国崩溃的进程已加速”。
The risk of war is still alive, especially since Trump doesn't face anymore future elections, said Amos Hochstein, a former energy advisor to President Joe Biden. Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices would all surge as a consequence, Hochstein told CNBC's " Power Lunch Iranian taunts Tehran has been taunting the Trump administration since the election. The social media account of Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said the "process of the U.S.'s collapse has accelerated" after the midterm results.
而且，在民主党于1月掌控国会之前，国会不太可能通过战争权力决议。无论如何，特朗普都可以否决此类决议。
And Congress is unlikely to pass a war powers resolution until Democrats take control in January. Trump can veto such a resolution in any case.
国会将拥有的主要筹码是财政大权，克罗夫特表示。政府拨款将于12月11日到期，另一项临时拨款决议的谈判可能拖延至2027年，她称。这位分析师表示，这将使民主党人在1月掌权时拥有更大筹码。
The main leverage Congress will have is the power of the purse, Croft said. Government funding expires on Dec. 11 and negotiations for another continuing resolution could drag into 2027, she said. This would give Democrats more leverage when they take power in January, the analyst said.
“重要的是，推迟拨款决定不会立即限制特朗普开展军事行动的能力，但可能会显著重塑政府的长期资金前景，”克罗夫特对投资者表示。
"Importantly, deferring funding decisions would not immediately constrain Trump's ability to conduct military operations, but could significantly reshape the administration's longer-term funding outlook," Croft told investors.
据卡塔尔国家通讯社报道，特朗普周五在与卡塔尔埃米尔的通话中讨论了缓和地区紧张局势的外交努力。一名不愿具名的伊朗高级官员周四告诉路透社，德黑兰已通过卡塔尔向美国提交了一份核提案。这位伊朗官员告诉路透社，伊朗只有在美国满足其要求后才会讨论该提案。特朗普周四似乎对这些外交努力不屑一顾。
Trump discussed diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions in the region with the emir of Qatar during a Friday phone call, according to Qatar's state news agency An unnamed senior Iranian official told Reuters on Thursday that Tehran sent a nuclear proposal to the U.S. through Qatar. Tehran will only discuss the proposal after the U.S. meets its demands, the Iranian official told Reuters. Trump seemed to dismiss the diplomatic efforts Thursday.
“伊朗永远不会拥有核武器，”总统说。“未经我们批准，他们什么也做不了。无论他们在考虑什么，都没有任何区别，”他谈及这些外交努力时说。
"Iran will never have a nuclear weapon," the president said. "They're not doing anything without our approval. It doesn't make any difference what they're looking at," he said of the diplomatic efforts.