
迪拜 - 伊朗报告称,11月5日在霍尔木兹海峡又有三艘油轮受损,这清楚地表明,只要海湾战争仍未解决,航运就会继续处于危险之中,而美国选民已因唐纳德·特朗普总统发动这场战争而惩罚了他。
DUBAI - Iran reported three more tankers had been damaged in the Strait of Hormuz on Nov 5, making clear that shipping would remain in peril as long as the war in the Gulf is unresolved, now that US voters have punished President Donald Trump for waging it.
导致特朗普所属共和党失去对国会控制权的选举惨败,促使华盛顿对该冲突的政治代价进行了严厉重新评估,这项评估由副总统J.D.万斯主导,他在11月4日发布的一篇长篇社交媒体帖子中表示,这场战争应为其政党的失败负责。
The electoral rout that cost Trump’s Republicans control of Congress has prompted a stark reassessment of the conflict’s political cost in Washington, led by Vice-President J.D. Vance, who said in a long social media post on Nov 4 that the war was to blame for his party’s defeat.
伊朗议会议长穆罕默德·巴盖尔·卡利巴夫——万斯在之前和谈中的对应人物——于11月5日在一篇嘲讽性回复中指责万斯,让特朗普像一名“输红了眼的赌徒”一样孤注一掷,计划发动更多美国打击。
In a mocking reply on Nov 5, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf - Vance’s opposite number at previous peace talks - accused Vance of letting Trump double down like a “losing gambler” by planning more US strikes.
卡利巴夫说,如果万斯认为战争是个错误,他应该说服特朗普叫停战争:“别搞那些TED演讲了。为什么不直接对你老板说这话?”近日油价大幅下跌,交易员押注特朗普——因选民惩罚而受挫——可能不太可能重启他于2月与以色列共同发动的“史诗之怒行动”打击。11月5日油价略微回升,但较上周仍下跌超过20美元/桶。
If Vance believed the war was a mistake he should persuade Trump to call it off, Qalibaf said: “Skip the TED talk. Why not say this to your boss?”Oil prices have plunged in recent days, as traders wagered that Trump - chastened by voters - may be less likely to restart the strikes he launched alongside Israel as “Operation Epic Fury” in February. Prices bounced back slightly on Nov 5, but are down more than US$20 a barrel from last week.
自上周以来,伊朗官员一直在与卡塔尔调解人会面,讨论结束敌对行动的提议。但双方均未宣布在迄今阻碍任何和平协议的主要问题上取得突破。
Iranian officials have been meeting with Qatari mediators since last week to discuss proposals to end the hostilities. But neither side has announced any breakthroughs on the major issues that have prevented any peace agreement so far.
油轮遇袭速度创纪录 与此同时,海湾地区油轮遇袭速度仍接近纪录水平。据英国海事安全机构UKMTO称,自11月1日起,至少有五艘船只报告了事故,速度与10月大致相同,当时该机构称有35艘船只遭袭,为战争以来任何单月之最。
Attacks on tankers at record pace Meanwhile, attacks on tankers in the Gulf are still running close to a record pace. At least five vessels have reported incidents since Nov 1, according to UK maritime security agency UKMTO, around the same rate as in October when the agency said 35 vessels were hit, the most of any month of the war.
UKMTO报告称,一艘船只于11月4日晚间遭两枚不明飞行物击中。
The UKMTO reported that a vessel had been struck by two unidentified projectiles late on Nov 4.
伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队通常不承认向商船开火,但称如果没有德黑兰的同意,该过境航线是不安全的。革命卫队表示,11月5日有两艘油轮触雷,另一艘起火。
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, who do not typically acknowledge firing on merchant ships but say the transit route is unsafe without Tehran’s consent, said two tankers had struck naval mines and another had caught fire on Nov 5.
11月4日,伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊表示,不应对美国有“哪怕最轻微的屈服倾向”,他称无论哪个党派执政,美国都将继续对伊朗保持敌对态度。“他在计划轰炸伊朗”当被问及万斯11月4日关于战争的言论时,特朗普为发动战争的决定进行了辩护,称防止伊朗获得核武器至关重要,这是他反复引用的理由。
On Nov 4, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said there should not be “even the slightest inclination towards submission” to the United States, which he said would remain hostile towards Iran, no matter which party was in power. ‘He is planning to bomb Iran’When asked about Vance’s comments on the war on Nov 4, Trump defended the decision to launch it, saying it was important to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, a justification he has repeatedly cited.
一名白宫顾问告诉路透社,白宫内部一些官员和工作人员认为,万斯的帖子代表了与总统在外交政策上的决裂,并公开承认了战争的经济后果。
A White House adviser told Reuters that some officials and staff inside the White House viewed Vance’s post as a foreign policy break from the president and a public recognition of the war’s economic consequences.
但两名消息人士告诉路透社,他们相信特朗普仍有可能下令恢复敌对行动。
But two sources told Reuters they believed Trump was still likely to order resumed hostilities.
“他在计划轰炸伊朗。别听他说什么。他因为中期选举而按兵不动。我们请他坚持到中期选举之后,”其中一名消息人士说。另一名消息人士称,现在中期选举已结束,特朗普在政治上已无损失可言。
“He is planning to bomb Iran. Don’t listen to what he’s saying. He held off because of the midterms. We asked him to hold off until the midterms,” said one of the sources. The other said Trump did not have anything to lose politically now that the midterms were over.
和平方面的努力围绕海峡的未来地位、美国对伊朗港口的封锁、对伊斯兰共和国的制裁以及恢复就德黑兰核计划的谈判展开。一名伊朗高级官员本周表示,双方分歧依然巨大。
Peacemaking efforts have revolved around the future status of the strait, a US blockade on Iranian ports, sanctions on the Islamic Republic and a resumption of negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear programme. A senior Iranian official said this week that the two sides remain far apart.
卡塔尔于11月3日表示,美国和伊朗致力于调解努力,并正在审查旨在弥合分歧的提案,并补充称与双方的会谈已取得进展。
Qatar said on Nov 3 that the United States and Iran were committed to mediation efforts and were reviewing proposals aimed at bridging their differences, adding that there had been developments in talks with both sides.