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中期选举“蓝色浪潮”对特朗普的否定对可再生能源意味着什么What midterm election blue wave rebuke of Trump means for renewable energy

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特朗普总统不仅援引了“绿色新骗局”这一说法。特朗普政府破坏了环境法规,取消了清洁能源补贴和税收抵免,阻挠风能和太阳能项目,并大力推广化石燃料。

President Trump didn't just invoke "green new scam" rhetoric. The Trump administration ravaged environmental regulations, eliminated clean energy subsidies and tax credits, blocked wind and solar projects, and promoted fossil fuels.

虽然特朗普可以否决民主党控制的国会通过的任何新立法,但全美选民对高昂的能源价格和数据中心表示愤慨,这两个问题对可再生能源项目和投资者至关重要。

While Trump can veto any new legislation from a Democratic Party-controlled Congress, voters across the U.S. expressed outrage over high energy prices and data centers, two issues of importance to renewable energy projects and investors.

在共和党在中期选举中惨败后,华尔街分析得出结论,美国风能、太阳能和储能投资的长期经济性现在更能免受“政治干预”。就在2022年,美国企业界和投资界的许多领袖还在高唱ESG——环境、社会、治理——是利益相关者资本主义的基石。然而,这种调子没多久就变了,原因可以理解。

After the midterms rout of the GOP, Wall Street analysis concludes that the long-term economics of U.S. wind, solar and battery storage investments are now better protected from "political interference." As recently as 2022, many leaders in corporate America and the investment community were singing the praises of ESG — environmental, social, governance — as the foundation of stakeholder capitalism. It didn't take long for that tune to change, for understandable reasons.

特朗普总统不仅在其“绿色新骗局”言论中让“ESG”、“可持续性”和“气候变化”成了脏话。特朗普政府撤销环境法规、取消清洁能源补贴和税收抵免、削减资金并叫停风能和太阳能项目,以及拥抱化石燃料行业,加速了这种反弹。

President Trump didn't just make "ESG", "sustainability" and "climate change" dirty words in his "green new scam" rhetoric. The Trump administration's rollback of environmental regulations elimination of clean energy subsidies and tax credits defunding and halting of wind and solar projects, and embrace of the fossil fuels industry accelerated the backlash.

但可再生能源投资依然生机勃勃,特别是在基础设施项目和清洁技术创新的公私资助者中。而在中期选举让气候友好的民主党控制了众议院和参议院后,复兴清洁能源议程的前景突然变得光明起来。

But renewable energy investing remains alive and well, notably among public and private funders of infrastructure projects and clean technology innovation. And following the midterm elections that gave climate-friendly Democrats control of the House and Senate, the prospects of reviving the clean energy agenda suddenly brightened.

巴克莱分析师彼得·克兰普顿团队在一份报告中写道,清洁能源太阳能股票在大选结果公布的第二天大涨,这“潜在地降低了可再生能源激励措施进一步受到政治干预的风险,并为美国风能、太阳能和储能投资的长期经济性提供了更大保护”。

Clean energy solar stocks rallied the day after the election results, which "potentially reduces the risk of further political interference with renewable energy incentives and provides greater protection for the long-term economics of U.S. wind, solar and battery storage investments," Barclays analysts led by Peter Crampton wrote in a note.

虽然特朗普可以否决恢复补贴和税收抵免、复活项目的立法,并继续就能源政策发布行政命令,但一些共和党人可能更倾向于帮助民主党推翻总统的否决,以迎合因高昂能源价格而愤怒的选民——这种情绪体现在多项旨在阻碍耗电量巨大的数据中心建设的州级倡议的通过上。

While Trump can veto legislation to restore subsidies and credits and revive projects, and continue to issue executive orders on energy policy, some Republicans may be more inclined to help Democrats override the president in order to appeal to voters outraged over high energy prices — a sentiment expressed in the passage of multiple state initiatives to impede the build-out of electricity-hungry data centers.

这股“蓝色浪潮”也让一项等待参议院批准的两党许可改革法案成为焦点。几位进步派民主党人希望推迟投票,直到新一届国会于1月召开,以便有时间重写有利于可再生能源项目而非化石燃料项目的条款。

The blue wave also shines a spotlight on a bipartisan permitting-reform bill awaiting Senate approval. Several progressive Democrats want to put off the vote until the new Congress convenes in January, giving them time to rewrite provisions favoring renewables projects over fossil fuel ventures.

最终,中期选举可能会改善专注于清洁能源的投资者的前景。这很可能始于影响力投资者,他们专门寻求在获得具有竞争力的财务回报率的同时,产生积极、主动的社会和环境影响。机会可以通过公开股权投资找到,例如构建为投资清洁能源公司的共同基金和ETF。但许多投资者也通过固定收益、私募股权、私募债权、风险投资、实物资产和社区导向投资,寻找纯粹的清洁能源投资标的。

Ultimately, the midterms could improve the outlook for investors focused on clean energy. That is likely to start with impact investors who specifically seek to generate a competitive financial rate of return alongside positive, proactive social and environmental impact. Opportunities can be found through public equity investments like mutual funds and ETFs that are constructed to invest in clean energy companies. But many investors also seek out pure-play clean energy positions offered through fixed income, private equity, private credit, venture capital, real assets and community-focused investments.

“影响力投资者考虑清洁能源投资有许多不同的途径,”全球影响力投资网络(GIIN)首席执行官阿米特·布里(Amit Bouri)表示,他将于年底卸任。GIIN 2026年对影响力投资者的调查显示,56%的受访者已将资金投入清洁能源,25%计划在未来五年增加这些投资。该调查是在中期选举前进行的。

"There are many different approaches that could lead impact investors to be thinking about clean energy investments," said Amit Bouri, who's retiring as CEO of the Global Impact Investing Network at year's end. GIIN's 2026 survey of impact investors found that 56% have funds invested in clean energy and 25% plan to increase those investments over the next five years. The survey was conducted prior to the midterms.

“从投资角度来看,清洁能源基础设施极具吸引力,因为财务论据与影响力论据相互强化,”财富管理咨询公司LNW首席影响力官贾斯蒂娜·赖(Justina Lai)表示。LNW管理的总资产为121亿美元,其中约35亿美元投资于影响力策略。她补充说,很难细分出具体专注于清洁能源和清洁技术的客户数量。“气候变化或广义上的气候行动,很可能是我们客户最常见的影响力优先事项,”她说。

"Clean energy infrastructure can be really compelling from an investment standpoint, because the financial thesis and impact thesis are mutually reinforcing," said Justina Lai, chief impact officer at LNW, a wealth management advisory firm. LNW has about $3.5 billion of its total $12.1 billion assets under management invested in impact strategies. She added that it's challenging to break down the number of clients who are specifically focused on clean energy and clean tech. "Climate change or climate action writ large is likely the most common impact priority that we encounter with our clients," she said.

尽管在2026年,随着原油价格飙升,能源商品领涨所有市场板块,这可能让人难以聚焦可再生能源领域的潜力,但赖女士提到的一些因素,应进入除影响力投资领域以外的投资者的关注视野。

While it might be hard to focus on the potential in the renewable energy sector in 2026 with energy commodities leading all sectors of the market as crude oil prices surged, some of the factors Lai cites should be on the radar of investors beyond the impact investing space.

她指出,国家不断增长的电力需求——部分与数据中心有关——老化且受限的电网基础设施、对储能日益增长的需求、地缘政治对能源安全的影响以及不断上涨的能源成本,是推动清洁能源投资的主要因素。与此同时,由于成本下降和许多清洁技术持续成熟,“我们知道,即使在完全无补贴的基础上,可再生能源也是新建发电成本最低的形式,”她说。

She pointed to the nation's growing electricity demand — partly tied to data centers — its aging and constrained grid infrastructure, the increasing need for energy storage, the effects of geopolitics on energy security and rising energy costs as major factors driving clean energy investing. Simultaneously, though, because of declining costs and continuing maturity of many clean technologies, "we know that renewables are the lowest cost form of new-build generation, even on a fully unsubsidized basis," she said.

数据最有说服力。根据彭博新能源财经(BloombergNEF)最新发布的《美国清洁能源市场展望》,美国有望在2026年底前新增创纪录的89吉瓦清洁能源装机容量,预计2027年的装机量将超过这一水平。环境保卫基金(Environmental Defense Fund)和阿特拉斯公共政策(Atlas Public Policy)最近报告称,仅今年上半年,美国就安装了11.5吉瓦太阳能、8.3吉瓦储能和6.3吉瓦风电。

The proof is in the gigawatts. The U.S. is on pace to add a record 89 GW of clean energy capacity by the end of 2026, with installations projected to exceed that level in 2027, according to BloombergNEF's latest US Clean Energy Market Outlook In just the first half of this year, the Environmental Defense Fund and Atlas Public Policy recently reported 11.5 GW of solar, 8.3 GW of battery storage and 6.3 GW of wind power were installed.

根据清洁投资监测(Clean Investment Monitor,由罗迪姆集团与麻省理工学院能源与环境政策研究中心联合开展)的数据,仅在2026年第二季度,美国在清洁能源和交通领域的投资总额就达到了750亿美元,为有记录以来第二高的季度数据,较上一季度增长22%。

U.S. investment in clean energy and transportation alone totaled $75 billion in the second quarter of 2026, the second-highest quarterly figure on record and up 22% from the previous quarter, according to the Clean Investment Monitor a joint project of Rhodium Group and MIT's Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.

供应链也在加速扩张。清洁投资监测在10月报告称,到今年第三季度,太阳能组件、风机叶片和机舱的制造产能较2025年第一季度扩大了约50%,反映了新建工厂已投入运营。而在过去四个季度中,全国在可再生能源、非化石燃料车辆、建筑电气化和碳管理技术的制造与部署方面累计投资了2700亿美元。

The supply chain has amped up, too. By the third quarter of this year, manufacturing capacity for solar modules, wind blades and nacelles had expanded by roughly 50% from the first quarter of 2025, reflecting new facilities that have come online, the CIM reported in October. And over the past four quarters, $277 billion was invested across the country in the manufacture and deployment of renewable energy, non-fossil fuel vehicles, building electrification and carbon-management technology.

罗迪姆集团能源与气候总监汉娜·赫斯表示:“在公用事业规模的太阳能和储能领域,投资一直非常强劲。”她指出,从盈利角度来看这很合理,“特别是当这些项目为符合税收抵免资格而面临的截止日期发生变化时。”赫斯指的是《一项宏伟美丽法案》(One Big Beautiful Bill Act)中的条款,该法案大幅提前了联邦清洁能源税收抵免的终止期限和截止日期,较拜登政府《通胀削减法案》原定的时间表大幅提前。

"Investment has consistently been very strong in solar and storage at the utility scale," said Hannah Hess, director, energy and climate at Rhodium. That makes sense from a bottom-line perspective, she said, "particularly when some of the deadlines for these projects have changed for them to be eligible for tax credits." Hess is referring to provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which significantly hastened the sunsets and deadlines for federal clean energy tax credits compared to the original timeline set by the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act.

太阳能和风能项目必须在今年7月4日前开工,或在2027年12月31日前投入运营,才能申请标准的投资或生产税收抵免。

Solar and wind projects had to begin construction by July 4 of this year or be placed into service by December 31, 2027, to claim standard investment or production tax credits.

“审视这一领域正值良机” 与此同时,尽管特朗普政府正全力撤销拜登《两党基础设施法》和《通胀削减法案》(IRA)项下为清洁能源预留的1.6万亿美元资金中的大部分,但据《政治报》(Politico)分析,仍有近6000亿美元资金可用。 保持这三分之一的资金管道畅通,对清洁能源开发商和投资者而言是利好信号,尤其是考虑到中期选举的结果。

'A rich time to be looking at this space' Meanwhile, even with the Trump administration's concerted efforts to rescind much of the $1.6 trillion set aside for clean energy under Biden's Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the IRA, nearly $600 billion remains available, according to a Politico analysis Keeping that third of the funding pipeline open bodes well for clean energy developers and investors, especially considering the midterm results.

“尽管IRA遭到大幅削减,但我们的长期投资论点以及客户对清洁能源的长期看法保持不变,”专注于影响力投资的咨询公司Veris Wealth Partners首席投资官Roraj Pradhananga表示。“如果我们观察传统能源板块的波动性和风险调整后收益,从长远来看,转向可再生能源最符合[经济]逻辑,”他补充道,“即使不计入税收抵免因素也是如此。”

"Despite the gutting of the IRA, our long-term thesis and our clients' long-term views on clean energy remain the same," said Roraj Pradhananga, chief investment officer at Veris Wealth Partners, an advisory firm that specializes in impact investing. "If we look at the volatility and risk-adjusted returns of the traditional energy sector, in the long run, shifting to renewable energy makes the most [economic] sense," even when taking the tax credits out of the equation, he said.

Pradhananga称,Veris管理着跨资产类别的30亿美元资金,运用包括公开市场、私募债务和基础设施基金在内的各种工具。“气候解决方案往往是我们客户最大的配置项。我们近期配置了Closed Loop Partners、Streetlife Ventures、SJF Ventures、New Energy Capital和Sunwealth等普通合伙人(GP)的策略。” AI数据中心的激增是中期选举中的一个热门议题。

Veris manages $3 billion across asset classes, Pradhananga said, using various vehicles, including public markets, private debt and infrastructure funds. "Climate solutions tend to be the largest allocation for our clients. We recently allocated to strategies from GPs like Closed Loop Partners, Streetlife Ventures, SJF Ventures, New Energy Capital and Sunwealth." The proliferation of AI data centers was a hot-button issue in the midterms.

10个州的选民就41项地方倡议表达了意见,内容包括全面禁止新建、暂停在建和规划中的设施,以及限制能源消耗。除一项外,其余全部通过。尽管俄亥俄州、得克萨斯州和佐治亚州新当选的三位州长在竞选纲领中批评数据中心,但他们并未呼吁永久禁止。

Voters in 10 states weighed in on 41 local initiatives, which included complete bans on new construction, pausing ongoing and planned facilities and restrictions on energy consumption. All but one passed. And although newly elected governors in three states — Ohio, Texas and Georgia — ran on platforms critical of data centers, they're not calling for permanent bans.

例如,德克萨斯州当选州长吉娜·伊诺霍萨在11月5日接受CNN采访时表示:“我们将制定法律来保护德克萨斯州民,我们需要停止目前在数据中心方面的做法,直到我们有了这些保护措施。”她还强调,要让当地社区在设施是否以及如何运营的问题上拥有实质性的发言权。这与宾夕法尼亚州州长乔什·夏皮罗对该州数据中心发展采取的谨慎态度不谋而合。8月,他签署了一项行政命令,对开发商施加了一系列限制。

For instance, Gina Hinojosa, governor-elect of Texas, said during a CNN interview on November 5, "We will have laws to protect Texans, and we need to stop what we are doing with data centers until we have those protections." She also emphasized giving local communities a meaningful say in whether and how facilities operate. That echoes Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro's cautious approach to data center development in that state. In August, he issued an executive order that places a host of restrictions on developers.

对AI公司而言,结果可能是新建数据中心的速度放缓、当地居民和官员的参与度增加,以及自行承担电力和水资源使用费用。但预计它们不会改变长期扩张计划。大选前几天,高盛表示:“虽然美国数据中心开发面临日益增加的政治和社区反对,但项目数据和我们更新后的产能预测表明,……到2027年的增长前景基本保持不变。”这家华尔街公司预测,数据中心电力需求将在2026年增长38%或12吉瓦,在2027年增长38%或17吉瓦。

The upshot for AI companies may be a slowdown in new data center construction, increased input from local residents and officials, and self-financing for electricity and water usage. Yet they are not expected to change their long-term expansion plans. A few days before the election, Goldman Sachs said, "While U.S. data center development faces increasing political and community opposition, project data and our updated capacity estimates suggest that the...growth outlook through 2027 remains largely unchanged." The Wall Street firm forecast data center power demand to grow 38% or 12 GW in 2026 and 38% or 17 GW in 2027.

周五,OpenAI首席财务官在CNBC上表示,尽管选举结果出炉,公司不会改变其投资计划。白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特周五在CNBC上也表达了对持续投资同样乐观的看法。“我们尊重决定这样做的地方政府,”哈塞特说。“但美国幅员辽阔,目前未来几年计划建设的数据中心不受这些投票倡议的影响。”

On Friday, OpenAI's CFO told CNBC the company will not be changing its investment plans despite the election results. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett expressed a similarly optimistic view of continued investing on CNBC on Friday. "We respect the localities that decide that's what they want to do," Hassett said. "But America is a big place, and right now, the data centers scheduled over the next couple of years aren't affected by these ballot initiatives."

从另一个角度来看,与人工智能和数据中心相关的风险可能有利于可再生能源投资。“如果说有什么不同的话,围绕人工智能的可持续性担忧实际上强化了他们对气候行动的兴趣,”赖说。“人工智能和数据中心的增长可能会推动大量新的化石燃料发电,因此我们的客户有动力确保更多的[电力]需求由可再生能源来满足。”

From another perspective, the risks associated with AI and data centers could be beneficial to renewable energy investments. "If anything, sustainability concerns around AI actually reinforce their interest in climate action," Lai said. "The growth in AI and data centers could drive significant new fossil fuel generation, so our clients are motivated to ensure that more of that [electricity] demand is met by renewables."

普拉达南加表示,这对Veris的许多客户也是如此。但他也承认,由于天然气是大型公用事业的主要燃料来源,也是为许多数据中心供电的“表后”液化天然气燃气轮机的燃料来源,“我们有些客户将其视为从化石燃料向可再生能源‘过渡’的一部分”,推崇常被提及的“全能源”过渡路径。“这就是我们在公开市场投资组合中确实持有公用事业股票敞口的原因。”

That's true for many of Veris' clients, too, Pradhananga said. But he also acknowledged that because natural gas is a prominent fuel source for large-scale utilities, as well as behind-the-meter LNG turbines that power many data centers, "there are some [of our] clients who view this as part of the transition" from fossil fuels to renewables, espousing the often-mentioned "all of the above" approach to the changeover. "This is where we do have exposure to utilities in [our] public markets portfolio."

公众对数据中心的担忧、明年1月由民主党控制的国会,以及至少目前来看,在2028年总统大选前,全国投票版图已显著向民主党倾斜,这三者可能形成“三重顺风”,助推可再生能源和清洁技术投资者。

Public consternation over data centers, a Democratic-controlled Congress come January and, at least for now, a voting map across the country that has swung significantly towards the Democratic Party ahead of the 2028 presidential election could create a trifecta of tailwinds for investors in renewable energy and clean-tech.

虽然对数据中心的任何暂停令可能会逐案影响可再生能源项目的开发,但也可能促进对输电网升级的投资,使大型光伏和风电装置能够接入现有及拟建的数据中心。

And while any moratorium on data centers could impact renewable project development on a case-by-case basis, it might also promote investments in transmission grid upgrades that allow utility-scale solar and wind installations to tie into existing and proposed data centers.

这也可能加速零排放发电、能效及其他气候科技风投正在资助的技术的研发。由于人工智能热潮,可再生能源公司近年来在争夷原本瞄准气候变化和脱碳领域的风险投资资金时面临更激烈的竞争。但据市场情报公司 Currence 统计,2026 年上半年气候科技风投达 260 亿美元,同比增长 55%。

It could also speed up research and development of emissions-free power generation, energy-efficiency and other technologies that climate-tech VCs are funding. Due to the AI boom, renewable energy companies have faced stiffer competition in recent years for venture capital dollars previously targeting climate change and decarbonization. But climate-tech VC hit $26 billion in the first half of 2026, a 55% increase year over year, according to market-intelligence firm Currence.

清洁能源投资倡导者兼顾问亚当·沃尔芬松(Adam Wolfensohn)表示:“气候投资领域存在非常有趣的基础设施机会,包括先进聚变创企、浮式海上风机以及光储一体化运营。所有这些技术不断变得更好、更便宜,为可再生能源和新的金融结构释放了更大潜力。现在审视这一领域正当其时。”

"There are very interesting infrastructure opportunities in [climate investing], including advanced fusion ventures, floating offshore wind turbines and solar plus storage operations," said Adam Wolfensohn, a clean-energy investment advocate and advisor. "All of these technologies keep getting better and cheaper, unlocking so much more potential for renewables and new financial structures.

全球影响力投资网络(GIIN)为其分布在 40 多个国家的 350 家成员机构(其中美国 126 家)提供指导性资源,其中包括近期推出的气候解决方案投资框架。布里(Bouri)表示:“该框架旨在帮助投资者理清气候解决方案的版图,并确保其投资策略背后的实际气候影响经得起严格检验。许多事物贴着‘绿色’标签,但我们真正关注的是什么能为人类和地球带来实实在在的成果。”

It's a rich time to be looking at this space." Among the guiding resources the GIIN offers to its 350 member organizations in 40-plus countries, including 126 in the U.S., is a recently launched climate solutions investing framework. "It's designed to help investors make sense of the landscape of climate solutions and to ensure they have rigor around the actual climate impacts underpinning an investment strategy," Bouri said. "A lot of things have green labels on them, but what we are really focused on is what drives real results for people and the planet."

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