我交谈过的几乎每一位共和党人都强烈赞同副总统万斯在共和党中期选举惨败后撰写的“蓝色海啸”帖子。“我们输掉选举的真实原因显而易见，几乎人人皆知，”他说。“我们输掉选举的原因是战争。”虽然我热烈赞同这一推论，但至关重要的是，共和党所谓的“智囊团”——在周二的政治惨败后，很难不对这个称呼发出冷笑——弄清为何那场战争的后果成了共和党的政治“氪石”。
Almost every Republican I speak with strongly agrees with the “Blue Tsunami” post authored by Vice President JD Vance in the wake of the Republicans' midterm defeat. "The real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone," he said. "The reason we lost is the war.”Although I enthusiastically endorse that reasoning, it remains essential that the so-called braintrust of the Republican Party — it's difficult not to snicker at that label after Tuesday’s political annihilation — understand why the fallout of that war was political kryptonite for Republicans.
首先，它正对国家的工人阶级产生大规模负面影响——根据皮尤研究中心最近的一项调查，这一群体占全国成年人的60%。换句话说，美国的大多数选民是工人阶级。但特朗普政府当权者中，有人亲自认识工人阶级的人吗？他们在为加密货币、数据中心和即将建成的豪华度假村的战利品举杯庆祝时，会想到这些人吗？是的，这或许有点刻薄。
First and foremost, it's having a massive negative impact on the working class of our nation — a constituency that, according to a recent PEW survey, makes up 60 percent of adults in our nation. In other words, the majority of voters in the U.S. are working class. But does anyone in authority within the Trump administration personally know anyone from the working class? Do they think about these people at all while toasting their spoils in cryptocurrency, data centers and soon to be built luxury resorts? Yes, that's perhaps a bit snarky.
但考虑到在周二大选之前很久，十分之九的选民就将生活成本视为主要担忧，这种刻薄或许是罪有应得。靠工资过日子的选民眼睁睁看着这一担忧演变成惩罚性的现实：与伊朗的战争导致汽油、柴油、食品杂货和基本商品价格持续飙升。
But it may be well-deserved when one stops to think about the fact that nine in 10 voters identified the cost of living as a major concern long before Tuesday’s election. Paycheck-to-paycheck voters saw that concern morph into a punishing reality as the war with Iran caused a continuous spike in the price of gasoline, diesel fuel, groceries and basic commodities.
几十年来，大多数美国人将民主党视为蓝领美国人的政党。随后，随着民主党越来越迷恋精英和大科技公司，特朗普-万斯竞选团队趁虚而入，成功抢占了蓝领拥趸的帽子。但今年，随着特朗普政府将新保守派的意志及其推动战争的举措置于民众需求之上，剧本再次被改写。
For decades, most Americans identified the Democratic Party as the party of blue-collar Americans. Then, as the party increasingly became more infatuated with elites and Big Tech, the Trump-Vance campaign swooped in and successfully co-opted the blue-collar mantle. But this year, as the Trump administration prioritized the will of neocons and their push for war over the needs of the people, that script was flipped again.
如果周二晚间闭着眼睛听那些胜选演讲，你会发誓自己听到了里根时代的竞选纲领——那些能引起所有工薪阶层共鸣的常识性理念。毫不意外，共和党周二晚间将那部分选票在很大程度上拱手让回给了民主党。正如全美汽车工人联合会主席肖恩·费恩周三所言：“我一直这么说：听着，我们不是共和党人，不是民主党人，也不是无党派人士。我们支持支持我们的人。”
So much so that if one listened to the victory speeches delivered Tuesday night with your eyes closed, you would swear you were hearing talking points from the Reagan era promoting the commonsense ideals that speak to all in the working class. To the surprise of no one, Republicans ceded much of that vote back to the Democrats on Tuesday evening. As United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain put it on Wednesday: "I say this all the time: Look, we're not Republicans, we are not Democrats, we aren't independents. We support people that back us."
共和党在纠结这一问题的同时，手头还摊上另一个大麻烦：Z世代。正如民调接连显示，高达七成30岁以下选民刚刚投给了民主党。这不是内爆，这是丧钟。难道政府里没人认识这一代的任何人——除了他们自家的“裙带关系宝宝”和富家子弟——正为支付账单发愁，日益悲观地认为他们永远、永远无法实现曾被许诺的美国梦？
As Republicans wrestle with that issue, the party has another major problem on its hands: Gen Z. As poll after poll indicated, a whopping seven out of 10 voters under the age of 30 just voted for the Democrats. That is not an implosion. That is a death knell. Could it be that no one in the administration knows anyone from that generation, beyond their own nepo-babies and rich kids, who is struggling to pay the bills, increasingly pessimistic that they will never, ever realize the American dream that was promised to them?
如果认识，他们就会知道，目前有数百万这样的Z世代公民吓得魂飞魄散。如果共和党希望在2028年有任何机会守住白宫、夺回一些众议院和参议院席位，他们将需要一位新旗手——一位天生对工薪阶层、被剥夺权利者和青年选票敏锐共鸣的人。万斯了解那些群体的疼痛，因为他活过他们的生活。他不是“裙带关系宝宝”，不是在富裕环境中长大。
If they did, they would know that there are millions of such Gen Z citizens out there currently scared out of their minds. If the Republicans hope to have any chance to keep the White House and claw back some House and Senate seats come 2028, they are going to need a new champion — someone who has an ear pre-tuned to the working class, the disenfranchised and the youth vote. Vance knows the pain of those communities because he lived their lives. He is not a nepo-baby. He did not grow up rich.
更关键的是，年仅42岁、育有四个年幼孩子的万斯，比政府内几乎任何其他掌权者都更接近Z世代群体。随着共和党的选后复盘持续进行，明智之举是认识到：迫切需要一场海啸般的变革。是时候把政治机器的更多控制权交给万斯及其团队了。
More than that, at just 42 years of age, with four young children, Vance is closer to the Gen Z demographic than almost anyone else in authority within the administration. As the post-mortems continue for the Republicans, it would be wise to recognize that a sea-change is desperately needed. It is time to cede more control of the political machine to Vance and his team.
迟早，所有的政治接力棒都必须交接，才能赢得胜利。蓝领选票暂时已倒回民主党一边。对共和党而言，要么倾听、学习、承认并共情、进化，要么灭亡。道格拉斯·麦金农曾任白宫和五角大楼官员。
Sooner or later, all political batons must be handed off if victory is to be attained. The blue-collar vote has flipped back to the Democrats for the moment. For the Republican Party, it’s either listen, learn, acknowledge and empathize, evolve or perish. Douglas MacKinnon is a former White House and Pentagon official.