大选次日，JD·万斯（JD Vance）通过一条推文对现任总统发出了惊人的斥责：“我们输掉选举的原因是战争。”通常而言，外交政策不会决定美国大选的结果。但这一次不同。
The morning after the elections, JD Vance delivered a stunning rebuke to the sitting president by way of a tweet: “The reason we lost is the war.”As a general rule, foreign policy does not decide the outcome of U.S. elections. This time was different.
2026年初，共和党的形势看起来并不太糟。仍有41%的美国人对特朗普总统持有好感，博彩市场稳稳预测共和党将在参议院获胜。但随着战争爆发、油价上涨，特朗普的支持率跌至历史低点。特朗普敦促美国人像总统本人就在选票上一样去投票——选民照做了。
In early 2026, things were not looking too bad for the Republican Party. Forty-one percent of Americans still viewed President Trump favorably, and betting markets solidly predicted a Republican victory in the Senate. But as the war started and gas prices went up, Trump’s approval ratings plummeted to historic lows. Trump urged Americans to vote as though the president himself was on the ballot — and they did.
大选后的民调显示，很少有选民把外交政策列为本次大选的首要议题。在国家面临的最重要问题中，外交政策以遥遥领先的劣势排在第五位，分别落后于经济（39%）、民主（32%）、移民（14%）和医疗保健（8%）。
In post-election surveys, few voters cited foreign policy as the primary issue of this election. Among the most important issues facing the country, foreign policy featured a distant fifth behind the economy at 39 percent, democracy at 32 percent, immigration at 14 percent and healthcare at 8 percent.
但很明显，通胀和高油价——导致国家经济困境的驱动因素——是特朗普发动的伊朗战争的直接后果。穆迪最近估计，这场冲突让美国家庭平均损失了2000美元。选民并未忽视这一事实；四分之三的选民表示，伊朗战争是其投票选择的主要或关键因素。
But it is clear that inflation and high gas prices — the drivers of the country’s economic woes — are a direct consequence of Trump’s war in Iran. Moody’s estimated recently that the conflict has cost American households an average of $2,000. This fact was not lost on voters; three-fourths of whom said the Iran war was a major or crucial factor in their voting choice.
其他一些敏感竞选议题的重要性被证明较低。关税和贸易战对中西部影响最强，然而民主党在密歇根、明尼苏达和俄亥俄的表现却相对不佳。数据中心同样不受欢迎；尽管如此，向左转向幅度最大的年轻选民群体，最不关心这一议题。
A number of other hot-button campaign issues turned out to be less important. Tariffs and trade wars affect the Midwest most strongly, and yet Democrats comparatively underperformed in Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio. Data centers are similarly unpopular; still, young voters — the demographic that shifted most to the left — cared least about the issue.
同样地，拉美裔选民的转向似乎几乎完全是由生活成本上涨驱动的，而非——正如一些分析师急于得出的结论那样——移民问题。在9月的一项民调中，拉美裔选民在信任哪个党处理边境问题上意见分歧；认为民主党在“处理移民问题”方面更好的拉美裔比例自2022年以来几乎没有变化。
In a similar vein, the shift among Latino voters seems almost entirely driven by the rising cost of living and not — as some analysts were quick to conclude — immigration. In a September poll, Latino voters were split over which party to trust with the border; the share of Latinos that believe Democrats are better at “dealing with immigration” has barely moved since 2022.
与此同时，特别年轻的共和党人和独立选民否定了总统的干预主义遗产。十分之七的Z世代选民投票支持民主党，与2024年相比转变超过30个百分点。这种党内反叛酝酿已久。4月的一项民调发现，年长保守派中强烈支持总统在伊朗行动的比例占绝大多数，而18至34岁人群中仅为28%。以色列问题上也是如此，72%的Z世代共和党人反对特朗普对以色列的无条件支持。
Meanwhile, it was particularly young Republicans and independents that repudiated the president’s interventionist legacy. Seven in 10 Gen Z voters turned out for Democrats, a more than 30-point shift from 2024. This intra-party rebellion has been months in the making. An April poll found that strong majorities of older conservatives strongly supported the president’s actions in Iran, compared to only 28 percent of those 18 to 34. The same is true of Israel, where 72 percent of Gen Z Republicans oppose Trump’s unconditional support.
甚至特朗普本人也已看出端倪。在大选日最后关头——伴随另一次对伊朗空袭这一不协调举动——特朗普总统宣布将于年底前停止对以色列的军事援助。大选翌日清晨，其副总统表示，共和党需要至少做四件事才能挽回流失的选民：结束战争、聚焦通胀、美国优先以及改变美以关系。
Even Trump himself has seen the writing on the wall. In a last-ditch attempt on Election Day — incongruously accompanied by another airstrike on Iran — President Trump announced he would discontinue military aid to Israel by year’s end. The morning after Election Day, his vice president said Republicans would need to do at least four things to bring their lost voters back into the fold: end the war, focus on inflation, put America first and change the U.S.-Israel relationship.
当然，万斯——似乎愿冒失去特朗普背书的风险提出如此严厉批评——已在为下一届总统大选布局。但值得考虑的是，近期结果将对那场竞选意味着什么。
Of course, Vance — who appears willing to risk Trump’s endorsement with such scathing criticism — is already setting himself up for the next presidential cycle. But it is worth considering what the recent results will mean for that campaign.
在特朗普背弃“不发动新战争”承诺后，共和党基本盘不太可能再授权给新保守主义者，或任何因灾难性的伊朗战争而蒙羞的人。直到最近，共和党领跑者公开呼吁扭转共和党与以色列的同盟关系，这简直难以想象。
After Trump’s betrayal of “no new wars,” the Republican base is unlikely to give another mandate to a neoconservative, or anyone tainted by the disastrous Iran war. And it would have been unimaginable until very recently for a Republican frontrunner to openly call for a reversal of the GOP’s alliance with Israel.
左派方面当然也是如此，加沙已成为党内基本盘的试金石，他们仍对拜登政府处理以色列问题的方式感到愤怒。甚至连总统潜在候选人拉姆·伊曼纽尔——他曾在以色列国防军做过志愿者——也在今年早些时候呼吁终止向以色列出售武器。尽管像密歇根州的阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德或缅因州的特洛伊·杰克逊这样公开批评以色列的人士，在面对党内建制派时依然处于劣势，但这场斗争可能关乎风格而非实质。
The same, of course, is true of the left, where Gaza has become a litmus test for a party base still furious over the Biden administration’s handling of Israel. Even presidential hopeful Rahm Emanuel, who once volunteered with the Israel Defense Forces, has called for an end to arms sales to Israel earlier this year. Though avowed Israel critics like Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed or Maine’s Troy Jackson still faced an uphill battle with the party establishment, the issue may be one of style rather than substance.
短期内，很难预测特朗普将如何回应其选民对其外交政策的否决。他可能试图通过争取与伊朗达成协议、迟来地反对以色列来挽救其政治遗产。又或者，作为一位跛脚鸭总统，其国内议程正受到迫在眉睫的党内叛乱和国会传票的威胁，他可能会在一个日益脱离现实、涵盖古巴到伊朗的扩张主义愿景上孤注一掷。
In the near term, it is difficult to predict how Trump will respond to his voters’ rejection of his foreign policy. He may attempt to salvage his legacy by scrambling for a settlement with Iran and belatedly turning on Israel. Or, Trump, a lame-duck president with a domestic agenda now imperiled by looming internecine insurgencies and scuttled by congressional subpoenas, may double down on an increasingly delusional expansionist vision encompassing Cuba to Iran.
从长远来看，中期选举结果将加速一场迟到的清算，迫使美国正视其在世界上的角色衰退。特朗普在伊朗的失败冒险已向选民表明，美国在海外投射力量要付出高昂代价。外交政策或许赢不了选举——但它肯定能输掉选举。
In the long term, the midterm results will accelerate a belated reckoning about America’s diminished role in the world. Trump’s ill-fated adventure in Iran has shown voters that American power projection abroad comes at a high cost. Foreign policy may not be an election winner — but it can certainly lose one.
约翰内斯·朗是一名人工智能研究员和麦凯恩全球领袖，专注于美国外交政策的国内政治。
Johannes Lang is an AI researcher and McCain Global Leader focusing on the domestic politics of U.S. foreign policy.