
Investing.com -- BCA Research 表示,随着对人工智能投资热潮可持续性的疑虑加深,以及能源价格下跌的前景重塑全球市场领导格局,投资者应将配置从美国股票转向欧洲股票。
Investing.com -- Investors should shift exposure away from U.S. equities and into European stocks as growing doubts over the artificial intelligence investment boom and the prospect of falling energy prices reshape global market leadership, BCA Research said.
该研究机构认为,随着此前拖累欧洲股市的因素开始逆转,欧洲有望跑赢华尔街,更便宜的估值、更低的能源成本以及较少暴露于 AI 交易提供了潜在优势。
The research firm believes Europe is positioned to outperform Wall Street as the forces that have weighed on its equity markets begin to reverse, with cheaper valuations, lower energy costs and less exposure to the AI trade offering potential advantages.
在 11 月 6 日的研报中,BCA 首席策略师 Jeremie Peloso 指出,对 AI 资本支出可持续性以及大规模基础设施投资回报的担忧,正变得日益难以被投资者忽视。纳斯达克指数周四暴跌 6.4%,凸显了围绕科技股主导反弹的不确定性日益加剧。
In a November 6 research note, BCA chief strategist Jeremie Peloso said concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure and the returns from massive infrastructure investments were becoming increasingly difficult for investors to ignore. The Nasdaq's 6.4% plunge on Thursday underscored the growing uncertainty surrounding the technology-led rally.
虽然 BCA 预计 AI 热潮不会立即崩塌,但它表示,监管、建设许可、资本支出可持续性以及企业从投资中产生回报的能力等方面反复出现的担忧,值得对美国股票采取更审慎的态度。
While BCA does not expect an immediate collapse in the AI boom, it said recurring concerns over regulation, building permits, the sustainability of capital spending and the ability of companies to generate returns on their investments warrant a more cautious approach to U.S. equities.
情绪的转变可能利好欧洲市场,后者今年因能源成本居高不下以及来自美国科技板块的竞争而举步维艰。尽管存在这些逆风以及围绕伊朗的地缘政治紧张局势,但以本币计价,欧洲股票大体上守住了阵地,对抗了美国股票的冲击。
The shift in sentiment could benefit European markets, which have struggled this year with elevated energy costs and competition from the U.S. technology sector. Despite those headwinds and geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran, European equities have broadly held their ground against U.S. stocks in local currency terms.
能源价格下跌可能提供另一重支撑。BCA 称,较低的石油和天然气价格将缓解欧洲家庭购买力和企业利润率的压力,如果能源市场实现常态化,可能给该地区带来不成比例的提振。
Falling energy prices could provide another source of support. BCA said lower oil and natural gas prices would ease pressure on European household purchasing power and corporate profit margins, potentially giving the region a disproportionate boost if energy markets normalize.





该公司的地缘政治分析师认为,未来几个月伊朗冲突再度升级的概率为 30%,但其更广泛的展望指向能源价格将在 2027 年上半年逐步实现常态化。
The firm's geopolitical analysts assign a 30% probability to renewed escalation in the Iran conflict over the coming months, but its broader outlook points to gradual energy-price normalization through the first half of 2027.
更便宜的能源还可能缓解欧元区的通胀压力,并减少欧洲央行进一步收紧货币政策的必要性。BCA指出,市场目前定价预期2027年欧洲央行将加息约50个基点,如果能源价格下跌,这一预期可能会受到挑战。
Cheaper energy could also ease inflationary pressures across the eurozone and reduce the need for further monetary tightening by the European Central Bank. BCA noted that markets were pricing in roughly 50 basis points of ECB rate increases in 2027, expectations that could be challenged if energy prices decline.
与此同时,鉴于美国国内经济活动更为强劲,美联储可能面临更持久的通胀压力,这可能为欧洲股票相对于美国同类股票创造更有利的货币政策背景。
The U.S. Federal Reserve, meanwhile, could face more persistent inflation pressures given stronger domestic economic activity, potentially creating a more favourable monetary policy backdrop for European equities relative to their U.S. counterparts.
BCA还强调了欧洲防御性板块的估值优势,其中许多板块的交易价格较同类美国股票有大幅折价。该机构建议投资者在将配置轮动至欧洲时,青睐防御性股票。
BCA also highlighted the valuation advantage of European defensive sectors, many of which trade at substantial discounts to comparable U.S. stocks. It recommends investors favour defensive shares as they rotate exposure towards Europe.
然而,该公司警告不要将其对欧洲股票的相对偏好解读为对股票的绝对看多呼吁。其对欧元区经济在2027年前景的看空观点,支持维持股票相对于政府债券的整体低配仓位。
However, the firm cautioned against interpreting its relative preference for European equities as an outright bullish call on stocks. Its bearish outlook for the eurozone economy heading into 2027 supports maintaining an overall underweight position in equities relative to government bonds.
BCA的核心建议是从美国股票轮动至欧洲股票,特别是防御性板块,理由是即使两个市场都下跌,欧洲也能跑赢华尔街。
BCA's central recommendation is to rotate from U.S. equities into European stocks, particularly defensive sectors, on the view that Europe can outperform Wall Street even if both markets decline.