
欧洲多元化的股市突然成为全球最具吸引力的交易之一,因为全球投资者正寻求减持人工智能敞口。
Europe’s diversified stock market has suddenly become one of the most attractive trades around, as global investors seek to shed artificial intelligence exposure.
不久前,斯托克欧洲600指数还是落后者,因其易受油价上涨冲击且缺乏受益于人工智能繁荣的科技赢家而遭冷落。如今,欧洲股市由稳健的工业股、银行股和防御性蓝筹股组成,再加上相当比例的大宗商品公司,正证明其价值。
Not long ago, the Stoxx 600 index was a laggard, spurned for its vulnerability to rising oil prices and a lack of tech winners from the AI boom. Now, Europe’s mix of steady industrial names, banks and defensive stalwarts, along with a healthy dose of commodities companies is proving its worth.
周四,斯托克欧洲600指数经受住了标普500指数自2025年4月以来最深跌幅的考验,并有望实现自去年初德国大规模财政刺激计划首次公布以来,单季度跑赢全球股市的最大幅度。尽管欧洲股指期货指向周五将进一步承压,但跌幅看起来远比美国市场可控。
The Stoxx 600 withstood the deepest selloff in the S&P 500 index since April 2025 on Thursday and is set for the biggest quarterly outperformance versus global stocks by the most since early last year, when Germany’s massive fiscal stimulus plans were first unveiled. Even though European stock futures are pointing to further pressure on Friday, the drop looks far more contained than in the US.
“考虑到僵局下的可能政策结果,无差别抛售似乎过度,但尘埃落定可能需要时间,”欧洲及亚太股票策略主管Emmanuel Cau表示。“欧洲可能相对受益,特别是如果石油尾部风险消退。” 甚至在美中期选举之前,欧洲强劲的盈利增长就已在挑战大西洋彼岸同行的表现,并增加了其吸引力。但随着民主党横扫国会增加了对人工智能交易风险的担忧,投资者迅速需要调整航向。欧洲已成为首选之地。
“Indiscriminate selling looks overdone vs likely policy outcomes given gridlock, but it may take time for the dust to settle,” said Emmanuel Cau, head of European and APAC equity strategy. “Europe may benefit relatively, particularly if oil tail risks recede.”Even before the US midterms, strong earnings growth in Europe was challenging the performance of peers across the Atlantic and adding to its appeal. But with a Democratic sweep of Congress adding to concerns about risks to the AI trade, investors rapidly need to change tack. Europe has become the place to go.
美国选民引发的“蓝色浪潮”推动美国国债上涨,押注民主党将制约特朗普政府的减税和支出计划。这也重振了欧洲上市的众多清洁能源股票的前景。
The blue wave triggered by US voters spurred gains in Treasuries on bets that the Democrats will constrain the Trump administration’s tax and spending plans. It’s also revived the outlook for the many clean-energy stocks listed in Europe.

转向防御股一度支撑了市场,但近期整个市场都在上涨。这与过去五年的模式形成鲜明背离,为该指数在2026年高位收官奠定了基础。
The switch to defensives did the heavy lifting for a while, but lately the entire market has been on the rise. That’s a striking divergence from the pattern of the past five years and sets the stage for the index to close out 2026 on a high.
以阿诺·日罗(Arnaud Girod)为首的开普勒奇弗(Kepler Cheuvreux)策略师表示:“虽然10月份热捧的是医疗保健、食品饮料等低波动性的债券替代品,但投资者接下来将追逐对低利率更敏感的周期性股票。这可能有助于促成一轮年底的反弹。”中期选举为市场扫清了一个障碍。本周油价暴跌表明,投资者已经开始计入伊朗战争很快结束的更大可能性。最近几个月遭受最严重获利回吐打击的行业(如银行股和矿业股),以及今年表现落后的可选消费股,目前都出现了一定程度的喘息。
“While the month of October celebrated the low-volatility bond proxies such as healthcare and food and beverages, investors will now be chasing more cyclical stocks that are sensitive to lower rates,” said Kepler Cheuvreux strategists led by Arnaud Girod. “This could help engineer a year-end rally.”The midterms acted as a clearing event for markets. The plunge in oil prices over this week signals that investors have started to factor in a greater probability that the Iran war will end soon. Sectors hit by the heaviest profit taking in recent months, like banks and miners, and this year’s losers in consumer discretionary stocks, are all seeing some relief.

话虽如此,该地区仍存在风险。债券收益率和信用利差近期的飙升仍让投资者历历在目,而随着4月总统选举的临近,法国的政治局势依然令人担忧。与此同时,如果油价下滑,亮眼的盈利增长可能会打上问号。
That said, there are still risks to the region. Recent spikes in bond yields and credit spreads are fresh in the memories of investors, while the political situation in France remains a worry in the lead up to April’s presidential election. Meanwhile, impressive earnings growth may be in doubt if oil prices slide.
此外,该地区明年的经济增长率预计仍将保持在1.3%的低迷水平,相比之下美国为2.2%,全球为3.3%。这可能仍然足以维持市场的强劲势头。
Plus, economic growth in the region is likely to remain subdued at 1.3% next year compared with 2.2% in the US, and 3.3% globally. That may still be enough to keep the market strong.
以莎伦·贝尔(Sharon Bell)为首的高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)策略师表示:“我们发现,全球增长比单纯的国内增长更重要。斯托克600指数(Stoxx 600)一半以上的营收来自欧洲以外地区。”盈利增长一直是最大的惊喜。此前预测认为,欧洲将保持快速增长,并在2027年或2028年赶上美国放缓的利润增幅。
“We find that global growth matters more than domestic growth alone,” said Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists including Sharon Bell. “More than half of Stoxx 600 revenues are generated outside Europe.”Earnings growth has been the biggest surprise. Estimates projected that Europe would keep growing fast, catching up to slowing US profit gains in 2027 or 2028.

但欧洲实现这一目标的速度要快得多。第三季度财报季显示,该地区的利润激增,足以与美国媲美。大西洋两岸的每股收益增长率均约为去年的32%,但欧洲的超出预期幅度更大,达到9.2个百分点,而美国为7.6个百分点。
But Europe has done this a lot faster. The third-quarter earnings season has shown a surge in the region’s profits that rivals the US. Growth in earnings per share on both sides of the Atlantic is running at about 32% on a year earlier, but the size of the surprise is larger in Europe at 9.2 percentage points, compared with 7.6 points in the US.
“欧洲盈利再次呈现强劲季节性表现,进一步印证了我们对该地区利润复苏仍在轨道上的观点,”瑞银全球财富管理首席投资办公室欧洲股票策略主管马修·吉尔曼表示。“收入增长在加速,利润率持续恢复,盈利上调也已超出通常的季节性模式。”
“European earnings have delivered another strong season, reinforcing our view that the region’s profit recovery remains on track,” said Matthew Gilman, head of European equity strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office. “Revenue growth is accelerating, margins continue to recover, and earnings upgrades are running ahead of the usual seasonal pattern.”
吉尔曼指出,虽然投资相关需求仍是增长的主要引擎,并受到人工智能、电气化和国防支出的支持,但这种改善正向其他领域延伸。“因此我们认为前景更加均衡,且不再过度依赖少数贡献者。”诚然,能源股在上季度的增长中占据了很大比重,但每个行业的利润都在上升。而且,尽管油价下跌将削弱指数层面的每股收益,但其对市场情绪的正面影响可能会继续提振股价。能源成本下降也将减轻消费者负担,并可能抑制欧洲央行或英格兰银行加息的力度。
While investment-related demand remains the principal engine of growth, supported by spending on AI, electrification, and defense, the improvement is extending into other areas, Gilman said. “We believe the outlook is therefore better balanced and less dependent on a narrow group of contributors.”Granted, energy stocks accounted for a large part of the last quarter’s growth, but every sector is experiencing rising profits. And, while lower oil prices will erode EPS at the index level, the positive impact this has on sentiment is likely to keep boosting shares. Lower energy costs would also ease the burden on consumers and could curb interest rate increases by the European Central Bank or the Bank of England.

短期内,过热迹象可能需要暂停。九个行业目前已显示超买。尽管如此,整体指数尚未发出类似信号,且对该地区的仓位仍偏低。根据美国银行公司上月发布的基金经理调查,全球投资者对欧洲整体呈现8%净低配,这为进一步轮动留下空间。
In the near term, signs of overheating could warrant a pause. Nine sectors now screen as overbought. Still, the broader index is not yet giving a similar signal and positioning on the region remains low. Global investors are net 8% underweight Europe, according to the Bank of America Corp. fund manager survey published last month, leaving scope for further rotation.

“我们显然已经转向风险偏好,”法国巴黎银行企业与投资银行部首席投资官办公室负责人弗洛里安·罗杰表示。“我们对欧洲持超配,并且看到多个行业有望推动进一步上涨。”
“We’ve clearly switched to risk-on,” said Florian Roger, head of the CIO Office at BNP Paribas CIB. “We’re overweight on Europe and we see several sectors potentially driving further gains.”