Investing.com —— 中国科技股抛售潮不断加深，正威胁到国家主席习近平将该国居民储蓄转化为科技领域强大资金来源的雄心，因为不断扩大的投资者亏损暴露了北京建设更具吸引力的国内资本市场努力中的弱点。
Investing.com -- China’s deepening technology stock selloff is threatening President Xi Jinping’s ambition to turn the country’s household savings into a powerful source of funding for its technology sector, as mounting investor losses expose weaknesses in Beijing’s efforts to build a more attractive domestic capital market.
以科技股为主的上证科创板50指数在不到四个月内暴跌40%，蒸发市值至少4800亿美元，而亏损已蔓延至与人工智能、电动汽车和半导体制造相关的公司。这一跌势促使北京动员国家支持的基金、保险公司和监管机构托市，凸显出对中国科技股反弹可持续性的担忧日益加剧。
The technology-heavy SSE Star 50 index has plunged 40% in less than four months, wiping out at least $480 billion in market value, while losses have spread across companies linked to artificial intelligence, electric vehicles and semiconductor manufacturing. The decline has prompted Beijing to mobilise state-backed funds, insurers and regulators to support the market, highlighting growing concerns about the sustainability of China’s technology rally.
更广泛的敞口影响显著。高盛估计，与人工智能相关的公司占中国股市总市值的42%，有3000多家上市公司产生与人工智能相关的收入。截至3月，这些公司的合计市值估计约为10万亿美元。
The broader exposure is significant. Goldman Sachs estimates that AI-related companies account for 42% of China's total stock market capitalisation, with more than 3,000 listed companies generating AI-related revenue. Their combined market value was estimated at around $10 trillion as of March.
多家知名公司已遭受重大损失。电池制造商宁德时代今年以来下跌35%，而机器人制造商宇树科技自8月首次公开募股（IPO）以来市值腰斩。光学元件制造商苏州长光华芯和印制电路板制造商胜宏科技股价在过去一周下跌高达26%。
Several prominent companies have already suffered substantial losses. Battery maker CATL has fallen 35% this year, while robot maker Unitree has lost half its value since its August initial public offering. Shares of optical component maker Suzhou TFC Communication and printed circuit board manufacturer Victory Giant Technology have dropped as much as 26% over the past week.
此次抛售反映了估值过高、国内竞争加剧、能源成本上升、关税以及美国和欧洲可能限制获取中国技术和数据中心设备等多重因素的共同作用。然而，国内需求疲软和持续的房地产危机正加剧投资者担忧。
The selloff reflects a combination of elevated valuations, intensifying domestic competition, higher energy costs, tariffs and the possibility that the United States and Europe could restrict access to Chinese technology and data-centre equipment. However, weakening domestic demand and the prolonged property crisis are adding to investor concerns.
中国蓝筹股指数沪深300指数已从6月高点下跌约21%，尽管此前已出台旨在支持经济和对抗通货紧缩的刺激措施。这个21.5万亿美元的经济体仍严重依赖出口，而房地产低迷持续拖累家庭信心和消费。
China's blue-chip CSI 300 index has fallen around 21% from its June peak, despite earlier stimulus measures aimed at supporting the economy and combating deflation. The country's $21.5 trillion economy remains heavily dependent on exports, while the property downturn continues to weigh on household confidence and spending.
中国股市的疲软也与亚洲其他地区的涨势形成对比。沪深300指数今年下跌近14%，而台湾加权指数上涨56%，韩国综合指数上涨36%。日本日经225指数上涨逾25%。
The weakness in Chinese equities also contrasts with gains elsewhere in Asia. The CSI 300 has declined nearly 14% this year, while Taiwan's benchmark has gained 56% and South Korea's has risen 36%. Japan's Nikkei 225 has advanced more than 25%.
中国面临的挑战尤为显著，因为其人工智能产业持续取得技术突破，但投资者难以将这些成就转化为可比的股市收益。与亚洲其他地区受益于半导体硬件和上游基础设施投资的公司不同，中国许多人工智能成功案例集中在开发新模型上。
China's challenge is particularly significant because its AI industry has continued to produce technological breakthroughs, but investors have struggled to translate those achievements into comparable stock market gains. Unlike companies benefiting from semiconductor hardware and upstream infrastructure investments elsewhere in Asia, many of China's AI successes have centred on developing new models.
对习近平而言，后果不仅限于市场估值。北京希望鼓励家庭投资股票，特别是科技公司，以融资人工智能基础设施建设，并减少对房地产作为家庭财富储藏手段的依赖。房地产约占中国家庭财富的70%，其长期危机加剧了对通货紧缩的担忧。
For Xi, the consequences extend beyond market valuations. Beijing wants to encourage households to invest in equities, particularly technology companies, to finance AI infrastructure development and reduce dependence on property as a store of household wealth. Property accounts for roughly 70% of Chinese household wealth, and its prolonged crisis has reinforced concerns about deflation.
然而，股市反复崩盘和监管干预损害了散户投资者信心。上证综指仍徘徊在4000点左右，远低于2007年10月约6100点的峰值，尽管中国经济规模自那时起已增长近六倍。
However, repeated stock market collapses and regulatory interventions have damaged retail investor confidence. The Shanghai Composite remains around 4,000, well below its October 2007 peak of approximately 6,100, despite China's economy growing nearly sixfold since then.
政府在科技领域的打压历史、不可预测的监管以及薄弱的公司治理，也让家庭对投资股票持谨慎态度。散户投资者占中国市场成交量的很大比重，使得交易容易受政策信号和投机而非基本面驱动。
The government's history of technology-sector crackdowns, unpredictable regulation and weak corporate governance has also made households cautious about investing in equities. Retail investors account for much of China's market turnover, leaving trading vulnerable to policy signals and speculation rather than fundamentals.
即使在近期下跌之后，科创50指数的市盈率（按前瞻盈利计算）仍约为38倍，而纳斯达克100指数约为20倍，显示估值依然处于高位。
Even after the recent decline, the STAR 50 trades at around 38 times forward earnings, compared with approximately 20 times for the Nasdaq 100, suggesting valuations remain elevated.
中国在人工智能领域仍是一位强劲的竞争对手，彭博行业研究预测，到2030年，中国可能在大语言模型领域领跑全球。但长期的市场低迷可能会削弱北京利用私人资本市场为技术发展融资的努力。
China remains a formidable competitor in artificial intelligence, with Bloomberg Intelligence projecting that the country could lead the world in large language models by 2030. But a prolonged market downturn could undermine Beijing's efforts to use private capital markets to finance technological development.
因此，长期的AI回调不仅会威胁投资者财富和中国的技术雄心，还会威胁习近平建立一个以股市为驱动、替代陷入困境的房地产行业的更广泛计划。
An extended AI correction would therefore threaten not only investor wealth and China's technology ambitions but also Xi's broader plan to establish a stock-market-driven alternative to the struggling property sector.