北京一直在让人民币逐步升值。欧洲方面期待更快的步伐。因此，争端不在于方向，而在于速度。欧洲应当学会耐心，并与中国合作。
Beijing has been letting the yuan appreciate gradually. Europeans expect a faster pace. The dispute, then, is not about direction but speed. Europe should learn patience and work with China.
欧盟高层官员正计划协同访问北京，推动人民币升值以缩小激增的贸易逆差。欧盟委员会经济与金融事务总司司长马滕·费尔韦将于11月23日当周率团访华。
Top European Union officials are planning coordinated trips to Beijing to press for a stronger yuan to shrink a surging trade gap. Maarten Verwey, the European Commission’s director general for economic and financial affairs, will lead a delegation in the week of November 23.
年底可能还会有一次联合访问，届时预计由欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德、欧盟经济事务主管瓦尔迪斯·东布罗夫斯基斯和欧元集团主席基里亚科斯·皮拉卡基斯率团。他们将会见中国人民银行行长潘功胜和财政部长蓝佛安，就人民币被人为低估、助长廉价进口并危及欧洲产业的指控进行磋商。
A year-end joint mission could follow, likely led by European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde, EU economy chief Valdis Dombrovskis and Eurogroup president Kyriakos Pierrakakis. They would meet People’s Bank of China (PBOC) governor Pan Gongsheng and Finance Minister Lan Foan amid complaints that an artificially undervalued yuan is fuelling cheap imports that jeopardise European industries.
布鲁塞尔也可能在12月推出新的贸易防御措施，这是在近期对中国混合动力汽车进口设限的基础上进一步升级。这些措施包括一项“熔断机制”，可迅速将出口商踢出欧盟市场；一项鼓励供应链多元化、摆脱对单一国家依赖的举措；以及一项补偿卷入贸易战企业的机制。
Brussels is also likely to unveil new trade defences in December, building on its recent cap on Chinese hybrid car imports. These include a “kill switch” to quickly boot exporters out of the EU market, a measure encouraging supply-chain diversification beyond a single country, and a mechanism to compensate companies caught up in trade wars.
中国商务部警告欧盟“不要幻想通过施压榨取让步，更不要低估中国维护自身利益的决心和能力”。
China’s Commerce Ministry warned the EU to “harbour no illusions about extracting concessions through pressure, still less underestimate China’s determination and ability to defend its own interests”.
前九个月，中国对欧盟出口增长16.4%，贸易顺差超过每天10亿欧元（约合11亿美元）。
China’s exports to the European Union rose 16.4 per cent in the first nine months, with the trade surplus surpassing €1 billion (US$1.1 billion) per day.
6月，德国总理弗里德里希·默茨声称人民币低估幅度高达30%，敦促中国与其他国家合作推动其升值。随着巴斯夫和大众汽车在快速崛起的中国竞争对手面前失去优势，他也抛弃了德国的自由贸易传统，转而支持欧盟的贸易防御措施。
In June, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz claimed the yuan was up to 30 per cent undervalued, urging China to work with others to strengthen it. He has also ditched Germany’s free-trade tradition to back EU trade defences as BASF and Volkswagen lose ground to fast-growing Chinese rivals.
如果默茨计划针对中国搞出类似1985年《广场协议》的东西，他将会失望。根据该协议，美国、日本、西德、英国和法国让美元对日元和德国马克贬值，以减少美国贸易逆差。北京认为，日本被迫达成的协议导致出口下滑、房地产泡沫破裂，进而陷入“失去的几十年”。无论如何，如今北京处于强得多的地位，能够抵御此类施压。
If Merz is planning something like the 1985 Plaza Accord for China, he will be disappointed. Under the accord, the United States, Japan, West Germany, Britain and France let the dollar depreciate against the yen and Deutsche mark to reduce the US trade deficit. Beijing believes Japan was forced into a deal that led to its “lost decades” after exports fell and a property bubble burst. In any case, Beijing today is in a much more powerful position to resist such pressure.
该协议因让日本商品在海外变得更贵而打击了日本出口商。这令中国感到担忧，因为中国出口在科技和人工智能领域的带动下，一直是经济增长的主要引擎。自房地产泡沫在约五年前破裂以来，固定资产投资自由落体式下跌，消费降温。前九个月进出口总值激增23.8%，贸易顺差有望超过去年1.2万亿美元的纪录高位，支撑起4.5%至5%左右的增长目标。
The accord hurt Japanese exporters by making their goods dearer overseas. That worries China, whose exports, driven by the tech and artificial intelligence sectors, have been the main engine of growth. Fixed-asset investment is in free fall and consumption has cooled since the property bubble collapsed some five years ago. Total trade surged 23.8 per cent in the first nine months, putting the surplus on track to beat last year’s record US$1.2 trillion and underpinning the 4.5 to 5 per cent growth target.
中国人民银行否认压低汇率，并辩称这样做无论如何都是不可持续的。潘功胜表示，贸易繁荣反映了四十年的改革开放、超大规模市场、完备的产业链和基础设施体系、充裕的高技能劳动力供给，以及持续的研发创新。
The PBOC denies keeping the currency weak, arguing this would be unsustainable anyway. Pan said the trade boom reflects four decades of reform and opening up, an exceptionally large market, comprehensive industrial chains and infrastructure systems, an abundant supply of highly skilled workers, and sustained research, development and innovation.
美国财政部长贝森特也称，新《广场协议》是误导性的，是“绕开解决真正贸易问题的捷径”。
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also called a new Plaza Accord misguided and “an easy way to get around dealing with the real trade problem”.
人民币已稳步升值。兑美元及主要贸易伙伴货币均升至四年高位。上月底，央行设定的6.7147元中间价为2023年2月以来最强。逐步上调的每日中间价帮助以美元计价的投资者通过所谓的套息交易，在过去一年中国债券上获得约10%的收益，而全球债券和美国国债同期下跌约2%。
The yuan is already steadily rising. It has hit a four-year high against the dollar and major trading partners’ currencies. Late last month, the PBOC’s 6.7147 per dollar midpoint was the strongest since February 2023. Gradually raised daily fixings have helped dollar-based investors earn about 10 per cent on Chinese bonds over the past year, with the so-called carry trade, while global bonds and US Treasuries lost about 2 per cent.
中国人民银行似乎乐于让人民币缓慢升值，且不太可能加快步伐。欧洲官员面临艰巨任务。更重要的是，仅靠加快升值无法解决所谓的贸易失衡，因为其核心在于主要欧盟经济体竞争力和生产率的下降。欧盟需要切合实际。正如华盛顿此前所经历的，北京将始终拒绝外部对人民币施加的压力。
The PBOC seems content to let the yuan drift upwards and is unlikely to quicken the pace. European officials face a tough task. More importantly, faster appreciation alone will not resolve the so-called trade imbalance, because at its heart lies the declining competitiveness and productivity of the major EU economies. The EU needs to be realistic. Beijing will always reject outside pressure on the yuan, as Washington previously learned.