11月6日——经营一家向欧洲出口连衣裙的中国公司的陈立峰表示，人民币近期的走强使其产品价格过高，几乎吞噬了全部利润空间。
Nov 6 - Chen Lifeng, who runs a Chinese company exporting dresses to Europe, says the yuan’s recent strength has made his products too expensive and all but swallowed his profit margins.
“这损害了我们接单的能力。我们几乎没有利润了，”浙江省东部宁波腾盛服装公司老板陈立峰说。“如果继续上涨，我们将无法维持经营。”他的担忧凸显了北京面临的两难困境。欧洲领导人和国际货币基金组织官员认为人民币仍被低估，不公平地惠及了出口商，但中国决策者担心，人民币快速升值会挤压出口商微薄的利润空间，威胁就业，并削弱为数不多的经济增长可靠引擎之一，因为国内需求依然疲软。
"It has hurt our ability to take orders. We barely have any profit left," said Chen, the owner of Ningbo Tengsheng Garments in eastern Zhejiang province. "If it keeps rising, we won’t be able to stay in business." His concerns underscore a dilemma for Beijing. While European leaders and IMF officials argue the yuan remains undervalued and unfairly benefits exporters, Chinese policymakers worry that a rapid rise squeezes thin exporter margins, threatens jobs and weakens one of the few reliable drivers of economic growth as domestic demand remains soft.
中国央行表示，创纪录的贸易顺差更多归因于产业升级，而非人民币因素。今年以来，人民币兑美元升值近5%，兑欧元升值约9%。
China’s central bank says record trade surpluses are due more to industrial upgrading than the yuan, which has risen nearly 5% against the dollar and about 9% against the euro this year.
路透社采访的大多数分析师预计将采取渐进式措施放缓人民币升值步伐，但极少有人预见汇率政策会发生根本性转变，这增加了与要求货币走强的贸易伙伴发生更多摩擦的风险。
Most analysts Reuters spoke to expect incremental steps to slow the yuan’s gains, though few foresee a radical change in currency policy, increasing the risk of more friction with trading partners pressing for a stronger currency.
周二，中国人民银行宣布将提高金融机构外汇存款准备金率，释放出其对人民币快速升值感到不安的信号。
On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China said it would raise the foreign currency amount that financial institutions must keep as reserves, signalling its unease with the yuan’s rapid strengthening.
人民银行还可进一步提高该准备金率，因其目前仍比2021年峰值低3个百分点。其他工具包括非正式要求银行引导人民币走弱、设定较弱的每日中间价、放宽海外投资规则，或在远期买入美元合约中引入溢价。
The PBOC could raise these reserves further, as they remain 3 percentage points below their 2021 peak. Other tools include informally asking banks to steer the yuan lower, setting weaker daily fixings, relaxing rules for overseas investments, or introducing premiums on forward dollar-buying contracts.
“如有必要，仍有进一步调整的空间，”招商银行分析师丁木桥表示。
"There remains room for further adjustments if necessary," CMB analyst Ding Muqiao said.
出口商利润空间收缩，也是北京可能抵制欧洲呼吁的类似1985年《广场协议》式货币外交的原因。《广场协议》由美国、日本、德国和法国签署，致使美元大幅走低。
Shrinking exporter margins are also why Beijing is likely to resist Europe’s calls for currency diplomacy akin to the 1985 Plaza Accord between the US, Japan, Germany and France, which drove the dollar sharply lower.
中国学者长期将该协议描述为美国胁迫的产物，并将日本数十年的停滞归咎于此，尽管其他签署国并未遭遇相同命运。
Chinese scholars have long described that agreement as an act of US coercion, blaming it for Japan’s decades of stagnation, though the other signatories did not suffer the same fate.
“中国决策者非常熟悉日本在广场协议后经历的冲击及后果，”上海高级金融学院金融学讲席教授朱宁表示。“无处可藏”朱宁称，人民币升值对低附加值出口商（从纺织到家电）的打击尤为不成比例，这些行业比近期引领贸易增长的AI相关制造业更依赖劳动力。
"Chinese policymakers are very familiar with the shocks and consequences that Japan experienced following the Plaza Accord," said Zhu Ning, chair professor of finance at the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance. ’NOWHERE TO HIDE’Zhu said yuan appreciation disproportionately hurts lower value-added exporters, from textiles to home appliances, which are more labour intensive than the AI-related manufacturers that have recently led trade growth.
高盛预计，未来12个月人民币汇率将从目前的约6.70元兑1美元升值至6.40元。
Goldman Sachs expects the currency to strengthen to 6.40 per dollar over the next 12 months from about 6.70 currently.
“这些出口商可能不得不裁员缩减规模，从而损害国内消费，”朱宁说。
"These exporters may have to downsize and lay off their employees, hurting domestic consumption," Zhu said.
但高附加值行业同样在微薄利润上运营，疲软的国内需求迫使生产商以牺牲利润为代价在海外争夺市场份额。
But higher value-added sectors also operate on thin margins, as weak domestic demand pushes producers to chase market share abroad at the expense of profits.
路透社对5209家市值至少1亿美元的中国上市公司进行分析发现，今年上半年其净利率中位数为4.9%，而9733家全球竞争对手的中位数为8.9%。
A Reuters analysis of 5,209 Chinese-listed companies with a market value of at least $100 million found their median net margin in the first half of the year at 4.9%, compared with 8.9% for 9,733 global competitors.
法国外贸银行（Natixis）的一项单独研究发现，北京视为未来战略产业的电动汽车、电池、光伏风电设备和半导体等行业利润率仅为2%。分析师称，这些数据因低利率而显得好看，且更多是由降本而非收入增长驱动的。
A separate Natixis study found margins in electric vehicles, batteries, solar and wind equipment and semiconductors, sectors Beijing views as strategic industries of the future, were just 2%. Analysts said the figures were flattered by low interest rates and driven more by cost-cutting than revenue growth.
“本应承担中国下一增长模式的行业，其财务健康状况对央行的依赖程度，不亚于它们本应取代的行业，”分析师在一份报告中写道。
"The industries meant to carry China’s next growth model depend on the central bank for their financial health as much as the industries they were meant to replace," they wrote in a note.
渣打银行估计，人民币实际有效汇率（REER，一种根据通胀调整后衡量其对贸易伙伴货币价值的指标）每升值1%，平均出口利润率就会下降约30个基点。
Standard Bank estimates every 1% appreciation in the yuan’s real effective exchange rate (REER), an inflation-adjusted measure of its value against trading-partner currencies, cuts average export margins by about 30 basis points.
Gavekal Dragonomics副中国研究总监Christopher Beddor表示，人民币快速升值将立即损害出口商和经济增长，“中国决策者过于谨慎，不会拿此事冒险”。
A rapid yuan rise would immediately damage exporters and growth, and "China’s policymakers are too cautious to gamble on that", said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics.
位于东南部城市福州的福建合盛塑业有限公司董事长陈秀军表示，国内“产能过剩和恶性竞争”迫使其公司寻求海外客户，而人民币走强正冲击其海外业务。陈秀军说：“无处可藏。”
Chen Xiujun, chairman of Fujian Hoshing Plastic in the southeastern city of Fuzhou, said "overcapacity and vicious competition" domestically press his firm to seek clients abroad, where it is being hit by a firming yuan. "There’s nowhere to hide," Chen said.
与丈夫共同经营杭州振宇金属家具有限公司的胡媛芳表示，进一步升值可能迫使她提价，但她希望避免涨价，因为这可能损害销售。
Hu Yuanfang, who co-runs Hangzhou Zhenyu Metal Furniture with her husband, said further appreciation could pressure her to raise prices, which she hopes to avoid as it might hurt sales.
胡媛芳说：“客户可能只能接受，比如说，2%的涨幅。然后我们需要协商方式来弥补差距。”她补充称，这可能包括吸收部分亏损、改用更便宜的材料或包装等选项。“被压榨到骨头里”国际货币基金组织（IMF）在7月表示，人民币实际有效汇率（REER）被低估了17.3%至25.3%，而德国总理Friedrich Merz认为低估幅度为25%至30%。尽管此后人民币已走强，但国际清算银行（BIS）数据显示，截至9月，实际有效汇率仍比2022年3月的峰值低约14%。
"Customers may only accept, say, a 2% increase. Then we need to negotiate ways to bridge the gap," Hu said, adding this might include absorbing some losses and switching to cheaper materials or packaging, among other options. ’SQUEEZED TO THE BONE’The IMF said in July the yuan REER was undervalued by 17.3%-25.3% while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz put it at 25%-30%. Although the yuan has firmed since then, Bank for International Settlements data shows the REER was still about 14% below its March 2022 peak in September.
这一下跌与西方决策者所谓的“中国冲击2.0”同时发生——他们称，一波日益复杂的中国出口商品威胁着本国产业和就业。
The decline coincides with what Western policymakers call ’China Shock 2.0’ - a wave of increasingly sophisticated Chinese exports they say threatens domestic industries and jobs.
中国人民银行（PBOC）表示，北京从未寻求竞争性贬值，人民币主要由市场驱动，且根据其他模型估算属于合理估值。围绕中国经济失衡的争论在经济学家中愈演愈烈。
The PBOC says Beijing has never sought competitive devaluation, the yuan is largely market-driven and fairly valued under other models. The debate has intensified among economists studying China’s imbalances.
前IMF官员Gita Gopinath和Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas以及伦敦商学院教授Helene Rey认为，汇率更多是症状而非原因，若缺乏更强劲的国内需求，人民币升值可能加剧通缩压力。
Former IMF officials Gita Gopinath and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and London Business School professor Helene Rey argue the exchange rate is more symptom than cause, and yuan appreciation without stronger domestic demand could deepen deflationary pressures.
外交关系协会的布拉德·塞策认为，北京管理人民币汇率是为了支持出口商，而更强势的货币能提升家庭购买力。
Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations argues Beijing manages the yuan to support exporters and that a stronger currency boosts household purchasing power.
温州一家卫浴洁具工厂的老板表示，制造商在多个方面面临财务压力。
The owner of a sanitaryware factory in Wenzhou said manufacturers are under financial strain on several fronts.
“人民币升值，加上税收、社保和劳动法合规要求收紧，正在稳步侵蚀我们所剩无几的利润，”邱姓老板说，因法律敏感性，他只愿透露姓氏。“利润空间已经被压榨到骨子里了。”
"The stronger yuan, coupled with tighter tax, social-security and labour-law compliance requirements, is steadily eroding what little profit we have left," said Qiu, who asked to be identified only by his surname due to legal sensitivities. "Margins have already been squeezed to the bone."