马尼拉——菲律宾经济7月至9月同比增长2.1%，为五年多来最弱的季度增长，原因是通胀加速继续削弱家庭支出。
MANILA -- The Philippine economy expanded 2.1% year-on-year in the July-September period, the weakest quarterly growth in more than five years, as accelerating inflation continues to sap household spending.
第三季度国内生产总值(GDP)增速低于上一季度修正后的2.4%，也低于去年同期4%的增幅。该数据未达到路透社近期调查的经济学家预测中值3%。
The third quarter's gross domestic product growth is slower than the revised 2.4% recorded in the previous quarter, and the 4% expansion in the same quarter a year earlier. The figure missed a median forecast of 3% from economists recently polled by Reuters.
经济规划与发展部部长阿塞尼奥·巴利萨坎周一告诉记者，鉴于当前环境，要达到政府已经下调的3.5%至4.5%增长目标区间的下限将“非常、非常具有挑战性”。他还说：“不过，要实现目标下限，第四季度增长率仍需达到约6.3%。”
Arsenio Balisacan, secretary of the Department of Economy, Planning and Development, told reporters Monday that reaching the low end of the government's already downgraded growth target range of 3.5% to 4.5% will be "very, very challenging given the current environment." "Growth would nevertheless need to reach about 6.3% in the fourth quarter to achieve the lower end" of the target, he said.
在菲律宾政府看来，造成第三季度惨淡数据的因素包括食品和燃料价格高企、农业部门萎缩4.8%以及投资依然疲软。
Factors underpinning the dismal third-quarter figure, as the Philippine government sees it, were high food and fuel prices, the agriculture sector's 4.8% contraction and investments that remained subdued.
巴利萨坎表示，要实现明年的复苏，经济需要更强劲的投资、投资者信心恢复以及价格压力缓解。
For recovery to happen next year, Balisacan said the economy requires stronger investment, renewed investor confidence and price pressures to ease.
第三季度增速是自2021年第一季度以来的最低水平，当时菲律宾经济萎缩3.8%。
The third quarter print is the weakest since the first quarter of 2021, when the Philippine economy contracted by 3.8%.
巴利萨坎指出，由于通胀加速将继续影响家庭支出，消费复苏将需要更长时间；第三季度家庭支出增长2.4%，低于去年同期的4.0%。私人消费约占经济总量的四分之三。
Balisacan noted consumption will take more time to recover, as quickening inflation will continue to impact household spending, which expanded at a slower pace of 2.4% in the third quarter from 4.0% in the same period last year. Private consumption makes up roughly three-quarters of the economy.
菲律宾在美以于2月下旬对伊朗发动袭击引发全球能源冲击后，深受通胀飙升之苦。随着中东冲突持续、油价居高不下，菲律宾统计局上周报告称，总体通胀率从9月的7.2%进一步加速至上月的7.8%，为2023年初以来的最高水平。
The Philippines has suffered from soaring inflation amid a global energy shock after the U.S. and Israel launched their attacks on Iran in late February. As the Middle East conflict rages on and oil prices remain elevated, the Philippine statistics agency last week reported that headline inflation further accelerated from 7.2% in September to 7.8% last month, the highest reading since early 2023.
这个岛国严重依赖进口燃料；在伊朗战争爆发前，其超过90%的石油进口经由霍尔木兹海峡运输。东南亚前“明星经济体”还面临其他持续的逆风，包括一起备受瞩目的基建腐败丑闻，打击了投资者信心。
The island nation is heavily reliant on imported fuel; more than 90% of its oil imports passed through the Strait of Hormuz prior to the Iran war. Southeast Asia's former growth star also faces other persistent headwinds, including a high-profile infrastructure corruption scandal that has dented investor confidence.
这些挫折使菲律宾成为区域经济增长的落后者。9月，亚洲开发银行将该国2026年增长预测从3.8%下调至3.3%。这将较2025年4.4%的增速进一步放缓。这家多边贷款机构还将菲律宾明年复苏预测从早先的5.3%下调至5.1%。
These setbacks have made the Philippines a regional laggard on economic growth. In September, the Asian Development Bank slashed its 2026 growth forecast for the country from 3.8% to 3.3%. That would be a further slowdown from the 4.4% expansion in 2025. The multilateral lender also revised down its recovery projection for the Philippines next year from an earlier forecast of 5.3% to 5.1%.
马尼拉中国银行首席经济学家多米尼·维拉斯奎兹预测，尽管传统上假日季是高消费时期，但2026年第四季度增长仍将保持低迷。
Domini Velasquez, chief economist at Manila-based China Banking, forecast growth to remain subdued in the final quarter of 2026, despite a traditionally high-spending period due to the holidays.
“在此背景下，菲律宾中央银行在第四季度再次加息可能不再必要，”Velasquez 表示，“因为进一步收紧货币政策对解决供给驱动型通胀作用甚微，反而可能不必要地拖累本已疲软的国内需求。”
"Against this backdrop, another Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas rate hike in the fourth quarter may no longer be warranted," Velasquez said, "as further tightening would do little to address supply-driven inflation and could unnecessarily weigh on already weak domestic demand."
总部位于英国的 Pantheon Macroeconomics 首席新兴亚洲经济学家 Miguel Chanco 告诉《日经亚洲》，第三季度的结果使得“政府已经下调的 3.5% 至 4.5% 增长目标，从我们的角度来看变得更加不可能实现”。在他看来，出口“可能是经济中唯一的亮点”，他特别指出半导体出货量在近几个月来一直受惠于 AI 驱动的繁荣。
Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at U.K.-based Pantheon Macroeconomics, told Nikkei Asia that the third quarter result makes "the government's already downgraded target of 3.5-to-4.5% growth even more impossible from our standpoint." Exports, in his view, were "probably the only bright spot" in the economy, singling out semiconductor shipments, which have been riding on the AI-driven boom in recent months.
半导体是菲律宾最大的出口产品，该国是组装、测试和封装的主要枢纽。政府正寻求发展集成电路设计领域，目标是实现每年至少 20 亿美元的出口额。包括美国的德州仪器和 Amkor Technology 在内的企业在该国设有业务，许多半导体设施集中在群岛北部的主要岛屿吕宋岛。政府数据显示，9 月出口同比激增 35.6%。
Semiconductors are the Philippines' largest export, with the country serving as a major hub for assembly, testing and packaging. The government is seeking to develop an integrated-circuit design sector capable of generating at least $2 billion in annual exports. Companies including U.S.-based Texas Instruments and Amkor Technology have operations in the country, with many semiconductor facilities concentrated in Luzon, the northerly main island of the archipelago. Government data showed exports soared 35.6% year-on-year in September.
Chanco 表示：“坏消息是……这[半导体行业]实际上只是经济的一小部分”，并补充说，就对整体增长的净提振而言，它不会产生太大影响。
"The bad news ... is this [semiconductor industry] is only really a small part of the economy," Chanco said, adding that it will not have much of a bearing in terms of a net lift to headline growth.
牛津经济研究院在周一的一份评论中指出，受一起高调基建腐败丑闻影响，政府基建支出复苏缓慢，加上通胀压力将持续到 2027 年：“这些趋势将使消费者情绪保持低迷，从而拖累更广泛的增长。”
Oxford Economics, in a commentary on Monday, noted that a slow recovery in the government's infrastructure spending, influenced by a high-profile infrastructure corruption scandal, and inflationary pressures will persist into 2027: "These trends are set to keep consumer sentiment subdued, holding back broader growth."