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特朗普的友善劲儿没过这个周末。系好安全带Trump’s Congeniality Didn’t Last the Weekend. Buckle Up

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展现本色。摄影:塞缪尔·科鲁姆(Samuel Corum)/盖蒂图片社True colors shining through. Photographer: Samuel Corum/Getty Images

这也太快了。唐纳德·特朗普从遭遇历史性的中期选举惨败,到向民主党伸出微乎其微的橄榄枝,再到把白宫变成一座碉堡,这一转变的速度快如光速。

That was fast. Donald Trump’s journey from suffering a historic midterm electoral reckoning to extending the slenderest of olive branches to turning the White House into a bunker transited at light speed.

这位总统刚刚放出风声,暗示自己可以与将控制国会两院的民主党人合作,紧接着就在周五宣布,斯蒂芬·米勒——其座右铭是“总统保护我们国家的权力非常巨大,不容置疑”——将成为他的新任办公厅主任。他还在周五表示,乔·格鲁特斯应该继续保住工作,因为他是“MAGA勇士”。格鲁特斯是一位特朗普的忠实支持者,他曾领导共和党全国委员会走向中期选举的惨败,并且将在塑造2028年共和党总统初选过程中扮演关键角色。

The president had barely finished floating the idea that he could play ball with Democrats, who will control both chambers of Congress, before he announced on Friday that Stephen “The-powers-of-the-president-to-protect-our-country-are-very-substantial-and-will-not-be-questioned” Miller would be his new chief of staff. He also said on Friday that Joe Gruters, a Trump loyalist who steered the Republican National Committee into the midterms debacle and will play a pivotal role shaping the GOP’s presidential primary process in 2028, should still get to keep his job because he is a “MAGA Warrior.”

特朗普周六建议,司法部将开始对民主党人进行他所谓的“犯罪”行为的调查。没过多久,他又表示,他已邀请终极格斗冠军赛负责人达纳·怀特担任他新的白宫新闻秘书。(我承认我觉得这挺逗,但我不必去参加白宫记者会。)这位总统周日晚间表示,关于怀特将成为他的官方御用恶霸一事他“只是开个玩笑”,不愧为狡猾的政治战略家。接连不断。这种事以后还会更多。

Trump advised on Saturday that the Justice Department would begin investigating Democrats for what he described as “criminal” behavior. He said just a little later that he had offered Dana White, who oversees the Ultimate Fighting Championship, the job as his new press secretary. (I’ll admit I found that funny, but I don’t have to attend White House press gaggles.) Crafty political strategist that he is, the president said on Sunday night that he “was only kidding” about White becoming his official spokesthug. Bang, bang, bang, bang. Expect more of this.

我在上周的一篇专栏中指出,特朗普在陷入绝境或遭到挫败时通常会大发雷霆,因此我对他所宣称的融洽气氛能维持多久并没有抱太高的期望。我的确预料它能维持几天以上,但试图解决像美国总统这样的人物的问题,就是会有这样的风险。不过,这依然是那个老一套的特朗普在重复着老一套的花样——其中有些带有悲喜剧色彩,有些纯属滑稽,还有些则严肃且极具潜在危险。

I noted in a column last week that Trump has typically lashed out when he’s cornered or defeated, so I didn’t have high hopes that the bonhomie he professed would last long. I did expect it to last longer than a couple of days, but such are the perils of trying to solve a problem like the POTUS. Still, this is the same old Trump doing variations of the same old things — some of them tragicomic, some of them merely comic, and some of them serious and potentially dangerous.

民主党和共和党人将如何作出反应至关重要,因为美国早就该迎来一段持续且实质性和谐的时期了,而这种情绪是绝不可能存在于特朗普的能力范围之内的。

How Democrats and Republicans respond is essential because the US is overdue for a sustained and substantial stretch of congeniality, a sentiment that will never inhabit Trump’s wheelhouse.

让我们来看看特朗普在过去几天里造成的局面,以此作为应对未来几个月的实用信号。

Let’s consider what Trump has wrought over the last several days as actionable signals for navigating the months ahead.

米勒拥有那种在小学里向所有人打小报告、后来又升级为进行更具军事化报复的人所特有的坚定存在感。然而,报复是特朗普的看家本领,他很快就看出米勒是一个有用的操盘手,而后者长期以来一直热衷于大男子主义的空洞说辞、白人民族主义和反移民的恶毒言论。米勒在特朗普的两个白宫任期内都一直陪伴左右。

Miller has the unshakable presence of a guy who tattled on everyone in grade school before graduating into more militarized retribution. Retribution is Trump’s stock-in-trade, however, and he quickly identified Miller, a longtime aficionado of macho claptrap, White nationalism and anti-immigrant vitriol, as a useful operative. He’s been with the president in both of his White House tours.

特朗普信任他,并依靠他来帮助组建其第二任期内阁、制定移民政策以及运用和滥用紧急权力。正如我的同事埃里卡·D·史密斯所指出的那样,米勒恰恰体现了美国广大选民以创纪录的数量联合起来所反对的东西:戴着面具、武装齐整且训练不足的联邦特工占领城市街道,去推行一项考虑不周、具有虐待性且有时会致死的驱逐政策。

Trump trusts him and relied on him to help shape his second-term cabinet, his immigration policies and his uses and abuses of emergency powers. As my colleague Erika D. Smith noted, Miller embodies exactly what a plurality of US voters coalesced against in record numbers: masked, armed and poorly trained federal agents occupying city streets to pursue an ill-considered, abusive and sometimes lethal deportation policy.

共和党人在与米勒保持尽可能远距离的同时,坚持实现建立更严密、更安全的南部边境的目标(民主党人对这一目标忽视了太久),这符合共和党人的利益。针对特朗普政府荒谬的驱逐战术,民主党人一直是理性和道义目标的代言人,他们将拥有立法和法律实力来更有力地与之对抗。两党若能合作制定永久摒弃米勒主义的移民政策,将是明智之举。

It is in Republicans’ interest to distance themselves as far from Miller as possible while holding on to their goals of creating a tighter and more secure southern border (which Democrats overlooked for too long). Democrats have been the voice of reason and moral purpose in response to the Trump administration’s obscene deportation tactics, and they will have the legislative and legal muscle to combat it more forcefully. Both parties would do well to cooperate on crafting immigration policies that permanently dispense with Millerisms.

格鲁特斯提醒人们,特朗普并不关心共和党的前途,不关心共和党如何重夺保守派传统,也不关心如何在下届总统大选前的短短两年内规划政治卷土重来。格鲁特斯是为了特朗普而在那里,特朗普是为了特朗普而在那里,落入他们之手的共和党全国委员会将助长个人崇拜——并且可能会继续招募那些迷恋总统、却无力制定具有广泛建设性和吸引力的成熟公共政策的政客。

Gruters is a reminder that Trump doesn’t care about the future of the Republican Party, how it reclaims its conservative legacy or how it charts a political comeback in the two short years before the next presidential election. Gruters is there for Trump, Trump is there for Trump, and the RNC in their hands will foster a cult of personality — and likely continue to recruit politicos enamored of the president but incapable of crafting sophisticated public policy that is broadly constructive and appealing.

共和党人应该认清现实,从现在开始,快步将他们的政党和政治未来与特朗普彻底切割。像詹姆斯·戴维·万斯、特德·克鲁兹、马尔科·鲁比奥和罗恩·德桑蒂斯这样的机会主义者(至少在我看来)并不像是能够承载这一重任的领袖。因此,共和党需要以民主党在期中选举筹备期间展现出的那种热情和敏锐度来招募人才。

Republicans should accept this for what it is and sprint toward untethering their party and their political futures from Trump, starting now. Opportunists like JD Vance, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Ron DeSantis don’t seem (to me at least) like leaders who can carry that weight. So the GOP needs to recruit with the same gusto and acuity that the Democrats demonstrated in the run-up to the midterms.

民主党自身的政策目标应该反映出这样一种清醒的认识:他们目前在政治上顺风顺水的势头未必会持续。在期中选举中大力倒向民主党 拉美裔、年轻和白人工人阶级选民想要的是切实的答案,而不是承诺。如果民主党忽视了稳健的经济管理以及致力于解决特朗普曾不以为然的负担能力危机,选民们是不会永远支持他们的。

Democrats’ own policy goals should reflect an awareness that the wind currently in their political sails may not be permanent. The Latino, young and white working-class voters who swung so strongly to them in the midterms want answers, not promises. If the Democrats lose sight of sound economic stewardship and a dedication to tackling an affordability crisis Trump dismissed, voters aren’t going to stick with them permanently.

民主党明年可以借助共和党人的帮助,全力推动取消特朗普的关税体制并结束伊朗战争,以此强势开局。这两项举措都将具有两党广泛的支持。医疗、住房、教育、民权、财政廉洁以及职场立法也迎来了它们的契机。

The Democrats could come roaring out of the gates next year by pushing, with Republicans’ help, every effort to unravel Trump’s tariff regime and end the Iran war. Both moves would have bipartisan appeal. Healthcare, housing, education, civil rights, fiscal probity and workplace legislation have found their moment as well.

特朗普威胁要将司法部作为武器对付真正的和他们认为的政敌,这是由民主党人关于调查白宫和特朗普家族(主要围绕腐败问题)的讨论引发的。特朗普慌乱的反应表明,他可能意识到选民对他及其家人在其第二任期内捞取数十亿美元感到反感。民主党人不应该在腐败调查面前退缩,但他们需要以精准且有效的方式来处理。共和党内残存的任何法治和善治诉求,都可以在与民主党就腐败调查展开合作的过程中被重新激发(尽管对他们中的许多人来说,这或许有些难以企及)。

Trump’s threat to weaponize the Justice Department against foes, real and perceived, was triggered by discussions among Democrats about investigating the White House and the Trumps, primarily around corruption. Trump’s frantic response suggests he may recognize that voters were repulsed by the billions of dollars he and his family have hauled in during his second term. Democrats shouldn’t back down from a corruption investigation, but they’ll need to approach it surgically and effectively. Whatever law-and-order and good-government impulses remain in the GOP can be resurfaced in a collaboration with Democrats on a corruption probe (though that may be a bridge too far for many of them).

最后,特朗普招募怀特负责媒体宣传,不过是又一场行为艺术,出自一个对狂欢杂耍抱有古怪且无法遏制兴趣的人——这也衡量出这位总统是多么脱离实际和奇特。2024年在共和党全国代表大会上接受该党总统提名时,他还选择了怀特为自己引场。我在大会现场观看了那一幕,当时唯一比这更超现实的情景,是已故的浩克·霍根登上主舞台为向特朗普致敬而撕裂自己的衬衣。

Lastly, Trump recruiting White for media outreach is just more performance art from someone who has an eccentric and unquenchable interest in carny acts — and a measure of how out of touch and peculiar the president is. He also chose White to introduce him at the Republican National Convention in 2024 when he accepted the GOP’s presidential nomination. I watched from the convention floor as that transpired, and the only thing more otherworldly was when the late Hulk Hogan took the main stage to tear his shirt off in honor of Trump.

现任新闻秘书的滑稽闹剧也提供了一个教训:特朗普本质上是一个不够严肃且麻烦缠身的人,却在一个极其严肃的时期掌控着联邦政府和美国在世界上的地位。再次强调,共和党人应该接受这样一个事实:他们需要立刻切断与特朗普在政治和声誉上的联系。

The current press secretary shenanigans also offer a lesson: Trump is a fundamentally unserious and troubled man presiding over the federal government and the US’ place in the world during a deeply serious time. Again, Republicans should accept that they need to cut their political and reputational connection to Trump, posthaste.

特朗普对臭名昭著的黑手党头目约翰·戈蒂有着一生的迷恋。他曾对我说,他很欣赏戈蒂愿意坐在法庭里,公开蔑视那些试图对其严加管束的法官和司法程序。随着特朗普继续承受并回应一场政治痛击,他将展现出内心的戈蒂。不过,民主党人和共和党人不必跟着演戏。他们只需立场坚定、兑现对选民的承诺,并将这个时代抛在身后。

Trump has had a lifelong fascination with the notorious Mafia don John Gotti. He once told me that he appreciated Gotti’s willingness to sit in a courtroom and openly disrespect the judges and judicial process trying to bring him to heel. As Trump continues to absorb and respond to a political whooping, he’ll channel his inner Gotti. Democrats and Republicans don’t have to playact, though. They just have to stand firm, deliver for voters and leave this era behind.

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