乌克兰、俄罗斯和美国官员将齐聚阿联酋首都阿布扎比举行谈判，旨在结束莫斯科与基辅之间持续近五年的战争。
Officials from Ukraine, Russia and the United States are set to converge in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), for negotiations aimed at ending nearly five years of war between Moscow and Kyiv.
但分析人士对定于周二和周三举行的三方会谈能取得多大进展并不乐观，尤其是在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普近期与克里姆林宫接触的背景下。
But analysts are not hopeful of much progress in the trilateral talks slated for Tuesday and Wednesday amid US President Donald Trump’s recent engagement with the Kremlin.
特朗普指责总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基拖延和平努力。“泽连斯基必须愿意解决这场战争，如果他不愿意，我认为那将是非常糟糕的事情，”他上个月表示。美国上个月还签署了一项购买俄罗斯柴油的协议，批评者称这将为俄罗斯提供维持对乌克兰战争的收入。
Trump has blamed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for holding up peace efforts. “Zelenskyy has to want to settle this war, and if he doesn’t, I think it’s going to be a very bad thing,” he said last month. The US also signed a deal last month to buy Russian diesel, which critics say would provide Russia with revenue to sustain the war against Ukraine.
周四，特朗普声称这场战争已接近解决，而结束战争可能需要整个欧洲参与。但欧洲并非三方会谈的正式参与方。上周，法国表示欧洲将派代表前往阿布扎比，因为乌克兰的西方盟友担心特朗普可能强推一项可能损害欧洲大陆安全的协议。
On Thursday, Trump claimed that the war was close to being settled and ending it might involve all of Europe. But Europe is not officially part of the trilateral talks. Last week, France said that Europe will send representatives to Abu Dhabi, as Ukraine’s Western allies fear Trump might force a deal that might undermine the continent’s security.
俄罗斯占领了乌克兰约20%的领土，包括克里米亚和顿巴斯地区东部部分地区。俄罗斯的这一举动未获国际社会承认，但特朗普敦促基辅割让领土以达成结束战争的协议。这场战争已导致数千人死亡、数百万人流离失所。
Russia occupies roughly 20 percent of Ukraine, including Crimea and parts of the eastern Donbas region. The Russian move has not been recognised by the international community, but Trump has urged Kyiv to cede territory for a deal to end the war that has killed thousands and displaced millions.
那么，在近几个月针对能源设施的报复性袭击不断加剧之际，我们对今年最新一轮和平谈判能有何期待？双方今年已举行了三轮由美国斡旋的和平谈判，其中两轮在阿布扎比举行。谁将出席会谈？
So what can we expect from the latest round of peace talks this year, as tit-for-tat attacks on energy sites have intensified in recent months? The two sides have held three rounds of US-mediated peace talks this year, including two in Abu Dhabi. Who is attending the talks?
美国特使史蒂夫·威特科夫和贾里德·库什纳将率领美国代表团参加九个月来首次此类会谈，此前这位美国总统一直推动结束这场二战以来欧洲最致命的冲突。
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will be heading the US delegation for the first such talks in nine months, as the US president has pushed to end Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II.
据《基辅独立报》报道，乌克兰首席谈判代表、对外情报部门负责人鲁斯捷姆·乌梅罗夫将率领基辅的谈判团队。乌克兰代表团成员还将包括泽连斯基所属议会党团领袖达维德·阿拉哈米亚、泽连斯基办公室主任基里洛·布达诺夫，以及总统办公室第一副主任谢尔盖·基斯利齐亚。
Ukraine’s primary negotiator and foreign intelligence chief Rustem Umerov will lead Kyiv’s negotiation team, the Kyiv Independent reported. The Ukrainian delegation will also include David Arakhamia, head of Zelenskyy’s parliamentary group; Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Kyrylo Budanov; and Sergiy Kyslytsya, first deputy head of the Presidential Office.
与此同时，据国家通讯社塔斯社报道，克里姆林宫发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫上周证实，俄罗斯代表团将由前文化部长弗拉基米尔·梅金斯基率领。克里姆林宫表示，代表团成员还包括外交官米哈伊尔·加卢津、情报负责人伊戈尔·科斯秋科夫和陆军上将尤里·日加尔洛夫斯基。
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, meanwhile, confirmed last week that the Russian delegation would be led by former Culture Minister Vladimir Medinsky, the state news agency TASS reported. It also includes diplomat Mikhail Galuzin, spy chief Igor Kostyukov and army general Yuri Zhygarlovsky, the Kremlin said.
周一，克里姆林宫表示，和谈将不会有欧洲官员参加。佩斯科夫对记者的表态似乎与法国外交部长让-诺埃尔·巴罗周日的声明相矛盾。巴罗称，来自法国、英国、德国、北约和欧盟委员会的官员将出席11月10日至11日的会议。
On Monday, the Kremlin said the peace talks would not include European officials. Peskov’s comments to reporters appeared to conflict with a statement on Sunday by French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, who said officials from France, Britain, Germany, NATO and the European Commission would be present at the November 10-11 meeting.
周一，一名欧盟官员告诉法新社，欧盟、北约、法国、德国和英国的国家安全官员将到场，但目前不清楚他们将如何参与。阿布扎比会谈的关键是什么？
An EU official told the AFP news agency on Monday that national security officials for the bloc, NATO, France, Germany and the United Kingdom would be on site – but it was unclear how they would be involved. What is at stake in the Abu Dhabi talks?
乌克兰议会人民公仆党议员亚历山大·梅列日科告诉半岛电视台：“我不指望阿布扎比会谈能取得任何实质性进展。原因很简单，而且始终如一——普京完全没有认真谈判的意愿。他仍然一心想着（摧毁）乌克兰。”他说，普京想要乌克兰“投降”，这样他就能征服乌克兰人。
“I don’t expect any tangible progress in the Abu Dhabi talks. The reason is simple and remains the same – Putin has absolutely no intention to negotiate seriously. He remains totally fixated on the [destruction] of Ukraine,” Oleksandr Merezhko, a Ukrainian member of parliament from the Servant of the People party, told Al Jazeera. Putin wants Ukraine’s “surrender”, which will allow him to subjugate Ukrainians, he said.
芬兰-俄罗斯政治学家阿尔卡季·莫舍斯表示，即将举行的会谈事关乌克兰的主权和独立。
Finnish-Russian political scientist Arkady Moshes says Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence are at stake in the upcoming talks.
芬兰国际事务研究所项目主任莫舍斯表示，恢复乌克兰领土完整（包括克里米亚）可能已无法实现。俄罗斯于2014年吞并克里米亚半岛——联合国不承认这一举动。
Restoring Ukrainian territorial integrity, including Crimea, may already be beyond reach, said Moshes, a programme director at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in 2014 – a move not recognised by the United Nations.
莫舍斯说，如果和平协议不允许乌克兰“选择其同盟、决定其安全未来，或对其军队设限”，乌克兰将很难接受。
Moshes said that it would be very difficult for Ukraine to accept a peace agreement that doesn’t allow it “to choose its alliances, decide on its security future, or [that] put limits on its military”.
乌克兰希望俄罗斯从其领土撤军，并将安全保障作为与俄罗斯达成任何协议的一部分，但俄罗斯拒绝结束占领，并设定条件要求基辅不得获得北约成员国资格。莫斯科还反对协议达成后在乌克兰部署外国军队。
Ukraine wants Russia to withdraw from its territory and a security guarantee as part of any deal with Russia, but Russia has refused to end its occupation and set conditions that Kyiv should not be given membership of the NATO alliance. Moscow has also opposed the deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine after a deal.
哈德逊研究所欧洲和欧亚中心高级研究员、专攻中欧事务的马修·博伊斯同意，最棘手的争议点在于领土和对乌克兰的安全保障。
Matthew Boyse, a senior fellow with Hudson Institute’s Center on Europe and Eurasia specialising in Central Europe, agreed that the most difficult sticking points are those about territory and security guarantees for Ukraine.
“到目前为止，普京没有从‘要么按我的方式，要么走开’以及‘我的就是我的，你的可以商量’的立场上退让，”前美国外交官博伊斯告诉半岛电视台。分析人士一致认为，整个欧洲安全的未来也岌岌可危。
“So far Putin has not budged from his ‘my way or the highway’ and ‘what’s mine is mine and what’s yours is negotiable’ position,” Boyse, a former US diplomat, told Al Jazeera. The analysts agreed that the future of European security as a whole is also at stake.
博伊斯提到俄罗斯2014年吞并克里米亚时说：“克里姆林宫在许多协议和条约中同意并成文确认了1991年后的欧洲安全秩序，直到普京在2000年代开始撕毁它们，并于2014年将这一秩序彻底颠覆。”
“The Kremlin agreed to and codified the post-1991 European security order in many agreements and treaties until Putin in the 2000s began to tear them up and in 2014 turned that order upside down,” said Boyse, referring to Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
但克里姆林宫指责美国及其欧洲盟友在军事上包围俄罗斯。为此，俄罗斯反对北约在欧洲扩张，视其为安全威胁。俄罗斯警告，如果北约将军事足迹向东扩展至更靠近俄罗斯边境的地方，将与欧洲发生直接军事对峙。
But the Kremlin has accused the US and its European allies of encircling Russia militarily. To that end, Russia has opposed the expansion of NATO in Europe, which it sees as a security threat. Russia has warned of a direct military standoff with Europe if NATO expands its military footprint eastward closer to the Russian border.
斯德哥尔摩转型经济研究所副所长安德斯·奥洛夫斯加德表示，令人欣慰的是，库什纳明确指出，“北约将继续是欧洲集体防御的核心，任何国家都不应对另一国的安全或联盟选择拥有否决权”。
Anders Olofsgard, deputy director at the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics, said it was reassuring that Kushner had explicitly stated that “NATO would remain central to European collective defence and that no country should have a veto over another country’s security or alliance choices”.
政治学家莫舍斯表示，另一个处于关键地位的因素是欧洲后苏联国家的未来，即白俄罗斯、摩尔多瓦、格鲁吉亚和亚美尼亚。
Another element at stake is the future of post-Soviet states in Europe, namely Belarus, Moldova, Georgia and Armenia, said Moshes, the political scientist.
他说：“如果乌克兰现在尽管付出了严肃努力、尽管得到了西方、欧洲的支持却还是投降，那就意味着其他几个后苏联国家肯定会面临威胁。”他补充说，俄罗斯可能会在这些国家追求“类似苏联时期的强硬势力范围，甚至直接吞并”。上一次突破似乎可能出现是什么时候？目前还没有任何谈判接近突破。
“If Ukraine now capitulates despite its serious efforts and despite the support from the West, from Europe, that means that several other post-Soviet states will definitely be under threat,” he said, adding that Russia could pursue a “tough Soviet-like sphere of influence or even direct annexation” of these countries. When was the last time a breakthrough appeared likely? No talks have yet come close to a breakthrough.
奥洛夫斯加德表示，也许只有在2022年3月底，冲突刚开始时，两国在伊斯坦布尔会面，才曾有过结束冲突的可能性。
Only perhaps at the end of March 2022, at the very start of the conflict, when the two countries met in Istanbul, there was some possibility of ending the conflict, said Olofsgard.
他说：“当时，双方的相对实力尚不清楚；乌克兰证明比预期更强，俄罗斯则比预期更无能。”
“At this point, the relative strengths of the two counterparts were not clear; Ukraine had proven stronger and Russia more incompetent than expected,” he said.
奥洛夫斯加德补充说，乌克兰在加入北约、不允许外国在乌克兰设立基地、以及不要求立即收回克里米亚等问题上，也更愿意做出让步。
Ukraine was also more willing to make concessions with respect to joining NATO, not allowing foreign bases in Ukraine, and not demanding the immediate return of Crimea, Olofsgard added.
然而，他表示，最终导致会谈失败的因素有很多，“包括布查的暴行、西方缺乏明确的安全保障承诺、俄罗斯在战场上的失利改变了双方的计算，以及在领土让步和乌克兰军事建设问题上存在不兼容的观点”。
Ultimately, however, there were many factors contributing to the meeting’s failure in the end, “including the atrocities in Bucha, [a] lack of clear Western promises of security guarantees, Russian failures on the battlefield changing the calculations of both sides, and incompatible views on land concessions and military build-up of Ukraine”, he said.
分析人士谈到了确保和平的担保人。他们指出了一个例子：1953年朝鲜战争停战协定签署后，美军至今仍驻扎在韩国。
Analysts talk about a guarantor to secure peace. They point out the example of American troops stationed in South Korea to this day following the 1953 Korean War armistice.
莫舍斯说，乌克兰“大概需要类似这样的东西”，并补充说“没有西方国家在认真谈论无论谈判结果如何都要提供保障”。为什么多次试图通过谈判结束这场战争的努力都失败了？双方之间仍然存在巨大分歧。
Ukraine would “probably need something like that”, Moshes said, adding that “no Western country has been seriously speaking about guaranteeing whatever the outcome of the negotiations might be”. Why have repeated attempts to negotiate an end to this war failed? Vast differences remain between the two sides.
博伊斯说，过去的会议促成了一些重要成果，从交换囚犯到让被绑架的乌克兰儿童从俄罗斯返回，但这些会议未能解决核心分歧。他指的是领土让步和对乌克兰的安全保障。
While past meetings have facilitated important results, from prisoner exchanges to the return of kidnapped Ukrainian children from Russia, they have failed to address core differences, said Boyse, referring to territorial concessions and a security guarantee for Ukraine.
莫舍斯说，归根结底，俄罗斯想要赢得战争——它想要军事胜利，而不是外交胜利。
Ultimately, Russia wants to win the war – it wants a military victory over a diplomatic one, said Moshes.
“俄罗斯有兴趣继续战争，直到乌克兰被击败，”他说，并补充说“在这么多年的抵抗[和]如此多的经济困难之后，乌克兰不能接受投降”。
“Russia is interested in continuing the war until Ukraine is defeated,” he said, adding that “Ukraine cannot accept capitulation after so many years of resistance [and] so much economic trouble”.
前美国外交官博伊斯说，普京重建俄罗斯帝国的宏大愿景是关键障碍。
Boyse, the former US diplomat, said that Putin’s grand vision of reestablishing the Russian empire was the key obstacle.
“普京对乌克兰抱有殖民态度。他想控制它，或者至少决定那里发生什么，”博伊斯说，并补充说这对乌克兰来说是不可接受的，这是可以理解的。这些会谈需要什么才能取得有意义的突破？
“Putin has a colonial attitude towards Ukraine. He wants to control it or at a minimum, decide what goes on there,” said Boyse, adding that this was understandably unacceptable to Ukraine. What would it take for these talks to produce a meaningful breakthrough?
乌克兰国立基辅莫希拉学院比较政治学教授奥列克西·哈兰说，本周在阿布扎比可以就一些技术性问题进行谈判，包括粮食供应、黑海停火、能源停火，或许还有另一次交换囚犯。但所有分析人士都确信，会谈不会产生和平协议。
Olexiy Haran, a Ukrainian professor of comparative politics at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, said some technical issues could be negotiated in Abu Dhabi this week, including grain supplies, a ceasefire in the Black Sea, an energy ceasefire and perhaps another exchange of prisoners. But all the analysts were certain no peace accord would emerge from the talks.
“白宫暗示了某种看似宏大交易的东西，似乎将谈判议题扩大到欧洲安全秩序，”博伊斯说。
“The White House has hinted at what appears to be some sort of a grand bargain that appears to expand the number of issues under negotiation to the European security order,” said Boyse.
但他说，这一保证似乎主要侧重于满足俄罗斯的要求，而不是乌克兰的要求。
But this assurance appears to focus primarily on meeting Russia’s demands, not Ukraine’s, he said.
“俄罗斯是提出要求的一方，也是侵略者，正在向一位实力被削弱、却非常想当和平缔造者的总统施压。”这位美国前外交官说。
“Russia is the demandeur and the aggressor and is pressing a weakened president who very much wants to be a peacemaker,” said the former US diplomat.
“普京认为他能在谈判桌上赢得他在战场上赢不到的东西。”斯德哥尔摩转型经济研究所的奥洛夫斯加德表示，特朗普在中期选举中所在政党失利后已成为跛脚鸭总统，他在剩余两年任期内可能会更加关注外交政策。
“Putin thinks he can win at the negotiation table what he cannot win on the battlefield.”Olofsgard of the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics said that Trump, who has become a lame-duck following his party’s losses in the midterm elections, may pay more attention to foreign policy during his remaining two years in power.
“这可能意味着特朗普会加大力度推动乌克兰实现和平，或者至少达成停火。鉴于他过去的行事倾向，这意味着他会向乌克兰施压，要求其做出更多让步，并试图达成某种美国商业协议，作为给俄罗斯的甜头。”他说。
“This could imply that Trump will push even harder to make peace, or at least a ceasefire, in Ukraine. And given his past tendencies, that means leaning on Ukraine to make more concessions and trying to strike some kind of US business deals as a sweetener for Russia,” he said.
分析人士怀疑阿布扎比会谈难以取得突破，因为这位俄罗斯领导人不会做出重大让步。
Analysts doubt a breakthrough would be achieved in the Abu Dhabi talks as the Russian leader would not offer major concessions.
“普京的谈判方式通常是：提出最高要求，升级局势，然后等到别人妥协。”博伊斯说。
“Putin’s way of negotiating is generally: demand the maximum, escalate, and wait until others compromise,” said Boyse.