乌克兰和谈在停摆九个月后重启，前景几何旨在结束俄乌战争的美国主导谈判将于本周在阿联酋首都阿布扎比恢复。实现停火不会列入议程。
Ukraine Peace Talks Are Restarting After 9 Months. Here’s What to Expect. U.S.-led talks to end the war between Russia and Ukraine will resume this week in Abu Dhabi. A cease-fire won’t be on the table.
经过九个月的停滞，结束乌克兰战争的谈判定于周二在阿布扎比重启。
After a nine-month lull, talks to end the war in Ukraine are set to resume in Abu Dhabi, the Emirati capital, on Tuesday.
白宫主导的进程此前因俄罗斯要求乌克兰移交约2000平方英里（约合5180平方公里）领土而陷入僵局，俄军一直未能在战场上夺取这些领土。随后，美国和以色列对伊朗的战争爆发，打断了谈判进程。
The White House-led process had stalled over Russian demands that Ukraine hand over about 2,000 square miles of territory that the Russian military has been unable to seize on the battlefield. They were then interrupted by the start of the United States-Israeli war against Iran.
美国官员表示，本周谈判代表将重点讨论安全保障，旨在防止若达成停火后战争重燃。思路是将视野从领土主张扩大到欧洲更广泛的安全问题，以期打破僵局。
This week, negotiators will focus on security guarantees intended to prevent the war from restarting if a cease-fire is reached, U.S. officials have said. The idea is to pan out from territorial claims to look at broader issues of European security, in hope of breaking the stalemate.
不会出席谈判的特朗普总统表示，目标是达成“一项宏大、美好的协议”。事态是如何发展到这一步的？
President Trump, who will not attend the talks, said the goal was “a big, beautiful agreement.”How did we get here?
这场全面战争是二战以来欧洲规模最大的冲突，始于2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰。美国的和平努力始于特朗普2025年就职后。
The all-out war in Ukraine, the largest in Europe since World War II, began in 2022 when Russia invaded. The U.S. peace effort began after Mr. Trump’s inauguration in 2025.
该进程由政府和平特使史蒂夫·威特科夫和总统女婿贾里德·库什纳主导。两人同时也主导对伊朗外交，自2月以来主要精力集中在另一场冲突上。
The process is helmed by Steve Witkoff, the administration’s peace envoy, and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law. Both also lead diplomacy on Iran and have been largely focused on the other conflict since February.
政府最新一轮推动始于9月，围绕给予俄罗斯商业和经济优惠展开谈判，包括解除柴油出口制裁，此举引发乌克兰不满。
The latest push by the administration began in September with talks over business and economic sweeteners for Russia, including lifting sanctions on diesel exports, which upset Ukraine.
谈判将在美国、乌克兰和俄罗斯之间进行，定于周二和周三举行。法国外长表示法国将参会，但克里姆林宫发德米特里·S·佩斯科夫称会议不会有欧洲官员参加。
The talks will be between the United States, Ukraine and Russia, and are scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. France’s foreign minister said that his country would participate, but the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, said the meetings would not include European officials.
威特科夫在X平台发文称，谈判将聚焦“战后安全安排、降级冲突”以及人道主义问题。策略是什么？
Mr. Witkoff wrote in a post on X that negotiations would focus on “post-war security arrangement, de-escalation” and humanitarian issues. What’s the strategy?
2025年3月，乌克兰提出沿当前前线立即、无条件停火——这一提议依然有效。普京总统表示，要结束战争，俄罗斯必须获得其军队未能攻克的乌克兰东部顿涅茨克地区约20%的领土。
In March 2025, Ukraine offered an immediate, unconditional cease-fire along the current frontline — an offer that stands. President Vladimir V. Putin said that to end the war, Russia must be given the roughly 20 percent of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine that his military has failed to capture.
今年早些时候的谈判曾探讨过妥折方案，包括双方军队撤回以及建立中立的平民行政管理，但俄罗斯和乌克兰均予以拒绝。自谈判停摆以来，战局已向有利于乌克兰的方向发展。乌克兰已在关键地区收复领土。
Talks earlier this year explored compromises, including pullbacks by both armies and establishing a neutral civilian administration, which both Russia and Ukraine declined. Since talks halted, the fighting turned in Ukraine’s favor. Ukraine has recaptured territory in critical areas.
本周的谈判将探讨，给予俄罗斯在塑造战后地区安全架构中发挥作用的机会，是否能软化莫斯科结束实战的要求。
The talks this week will explore whether offering Russia a role in shaping a post-war regional security architecture could soften Moscow’s demands for ending the actual war.
甚至有人认为这种做法本身就是向俄罗斯做出的让步。“普京的目标是举行新的雅尔塔会议，”反对党欧洲团结党的议会成员弗拉基米尔·阿列耶夫说，指的是二战后划分欧洲势力范围的协议。欧洲将扮演什么角色？
Some see even that approach as a concession to Russia. “Putin’s goal is to hold a new Yalta,” said Volodymyr Ariev, a member of Parliament in the opposition European Solidarity party, referring to the post-World War II agreement that divided spheres of influence in Europe. What role will Europe play?
威特科夫和库什纳上周在布鲁塞尔会见了欧洲官员，随后才是本周计划中的美俄乌三方会谈。
Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner met European officials in Brussels last week, before the planned three-way talks with Russia and Ukraine.
周六，欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表卡娅·卡拉斯表示，“任何协议都需要欧盟参与才能得以实施。”这在欧洲将难以推销。波兰和波罗的海国家反对在其境内削减北约军事力量。俄罗斯在2021年和2022年初试图就欧洲安全达成一项大交易，但以失败告终。接下来可能会发生什么？
On Saturday, the European Union’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, said that “any agreement would require E.U. participation to be implemented.”It will not be an easy sell in Europe. Poland and the Baltic nations oppose any reduction in NATO military forces in their countries. An effort by Russia in 2021 and early 2022 to negotiate a grand bargain on European security fell flat. What might come next?
许多分析人士预计，在俄罗斯评估其冬季轰炸行动的结果之前，春季前谈判不太可能取得任何突破。
Many analysts don’t expect any breakthrough in talks until the spring, after Russia can assess the outcome of its winter bombing campaign.
为了打击平民士气，随着严寒天气来临，俄罗斯正在摧毁乌克兰城市的供暖、电力和供水基础设施。乌克兰则瞄准炼油厂和其他石油设施，以削弱俄罗斯对石油依赖的经济。
In an effort to break civilian morale, Russia is knocking out heating, electricity and water infrastructure in Ukrainian cities as freezing weather sets in. Ukraine is targeting oil refineries and other petroleum facilities to whittle away at Russia’s oil-dependent economy.
在会谈前，双方都加强了轰炸。乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，周六夜间至周日，俄罗斯发射了36枚弹道导弹。据电力公司DTEK称，这轮轰炸导致乌克兰中部约60万人断电。
Before the talks, both sides have stepped up bombardments. Russia fired 36 ballistic missiles overnight Saturday to Sunday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said. The barrage knocked out electrical power for about 600,000 people in central Ukraine, according to DTEK, an electrical company.
分析人士看到了实现局部停火的某些希望，这类似于教皇利奥十四世和第一夫人梅拉尼娅·特朗普上个月推动的一项协议，旨在将平民从被围困的奥列什基镇转移出去。
Analysts saw some hope for local cease-fires similar to an agreement promoted last month by Pope Leo XIV and Melania Trump, the first lady, to move civilians from the besieged town of Oleshky.
“问题是：‘普京是否意识到他有麻烦了？’”前美国驻乌克兰大使威廉·泰勒说道，指的是前线上的挫折。
“The question is: “Has Putin recognized he has a problem?’” said William Taylor, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, referring to reversals on the front.
他说，目前看来并非如此，俄罗斯既没有软化其要求，也没有表现出寻求停火的迹象。“没有任何感兴趣的迹象，”他说。
For now, he said, that doesn’t appear to be the case, with Russia neither softening its demands nor showing signs of seeking a cease-fire. “There’s no indication of any interest,” he said.
安德鲁·E·克雷默是《纽约时报》基辅分社社长，自2014年以来一直报道乌克兰战争。
Andrew E. Kramer is the Kyiv bureau chief for The Times, who has been covering the war in Ukraine since 2014.