密西西比州参议员候选人斯科特·科洛姆（Scott Colom，民主党）猛烈抨击知名选情预测机构低估了他击败参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯（Cindy Hyde-Smith，共和党）的胜算，认为这些悲观预测让民主党更难筹款、也更难在南方具备竞争力。科洛姆是一名黑人律师，在上周中期选举的最大冷门之一中，以不足3000票的微弱优势领先海德-史密斯，该席位归属目前仍难以判定。
Mississippi Senate candidate Scott Colom (D) blasted prominent election forecasters for underestimating his chances of defeating Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) in their election ratings, arguing that the grim predictions made it harder for Democrats to raise money and compete in the South. Colom, a Black attorney, has maintained a narrow lead over Hyde-Smith by less than 3,000 votes in one of the biggest surprises of last week’s midterm elections, with the race still too close to call.
他在社交媒体发文，指责非党派选情分析机构“库克政治报告”（Cook Political Report）及其他未具名的选情预测机构依赖过时的南方选举假设，忽视了能让深红州竞争变得激烈的候选人。“到了某个时候，我们必须谈谈@CookPolitical和其他‘预测者’，他们在竞选周期的大部分时间里，把我和其他南方候选人都标记为‘稳操胜券的共和党’（Solid R）。”
In a post on social media, Colom accused the nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report and other unnamed election forecasters of relying on outdated assumptions about Southern elections and overlooking candidates who could make races in deep-red states competitive. “At some point, we have to talk about @CookPolitical and other ‘prognosticators’ who had me and other southern candidates labeled as solid R for much of the campaign cycle,” Colom wrote on the social platform X on Monday.
科洛姆周一在社交平台X上写道。“他们让筹款变得困难得多，也是南方长期被忽视的原因之一。”
“They made it much more difficult to fundraise and are part of the reason the South has been neglected for so long.”
库克政治报告最初将密西西比州参议院竞选评为“稳操胜券的共和党”（Solid Republican），理由是怀疑民主党人能否在特朗普2024年以24个百分点优势拿下的州里对海德-史密斯构成挑战。10月，该评级调整为“倾向共和党”（Likely Republican）。即使在大选日前最后几周竞选受到更多关注，预测者仍对科洛姆在该州的前景持怀疑态度——该州自1982年以来未曾选出过民主党籍联邦参议员。
The Cook Political Report had initially rated the Mississippi Senate race as “Solid Republican,” citing doubts over the ability for a Democrat to challenge Hyde-Smith in a state President Trump carried by 24 percentage points in 2024. It later shifted to “Likely Republican” in October. Even as the race attracted more attention in the finals weeks before Election Day, forecasters remained skeptical of Colom’s chances in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1982.
库克政治报告10月30日的一篇分析称科洛姆的竞选“令人钦佩”，但指出共和党认为后期涌入的竞选开支帮助巩固了海德-史密斯的连任之路。科洛姆竞选团队筹集了440万美元，海德-史密斯方面筹集了630万美元，尽管双方近期都在为这场意外胶着的参议院竞选加大筹款力度。
An Oct. 30 analysis from Cook Political Report described Colom’s campaign as “admirable” but noted that Republicans believed a late influx of campaign spending had helped shore up Hyde-Smith’s reelection bid. Colom’s campaign raised $4.4 million compared to Hyde-Smith’s $6.3 million, though both parties have recently ramped up the pressure to raise more money in the surprisingly tight Senate race.
科洛姆表示，预测者在预测失误时逃避问责，并指责《库克政治报告》一位不愿透露姓名的分析师对他的解释态度傲慢，这位分析师无视他试图说明为何该机构对其竞选活动的评估是错误的。他写道：“当我试图陈述理由，说明他们对我的评级为何错误时，他们的一位‘分析师’对我极其傲慢（不是杰西卡），仿佛他懂密西西比州政治，可他从未去过‘西普’。”
Colom said the forecasters avoid accountability when wrong about their predictions, and accused an unnamed Cook Political Report analyst of dismissing his attempts to explain why their assessment of his campaign was incorrect. “One of their ‘analysts’ was extremely condescending to me (not Jessica) when I tried to make my pitch for why they were wrong about my rating like he knew something about MS politics when he’s never been to the Sip,” he wrote, clarifying that Senate and Governors editor Jessica Taylor was not the individual to whom he was referring.
他澄清，参议院和州长版编辑杰西卡·泰勒并非他所指的那个人。他补充说，这种态度在中期选举中伤害了其他南方候选人，其中包括路易斯安那州参议员候选人杰米·戴维斯，后者以微弱劣势败给了联邦众议员朱莉娅·莱特洛（共和党-路易斯安那州）。《国会山报》已联系《库克政治报告》置评。
He added that the attitude had hurt other Southern candidates in the midterms, including Louisiana Senate candidate Jamie Davis, who narrowly lost to Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.). The Hill has reached out to Cook Political Report for comment.