英伟达董事会正在调查首席执行官黄仁勋，援引近期报道称他成为“外国情报活动”的目标，但预测市场上的交易者认为他被免去首席执行官一职的可能性不大。
Nvidia's board is investigating CEO Jensen Huang, citing recent reports that he's been targeted by a "foreign intelligence effort," but traders on prediction markets think it's unlikely he'll be ousted as chief.
周日，黄仁勋承认与一名女子有婚外情。据《纽约时报》报道，美国情报官员称该女子是中国国家安全部的间谍。
On Sunday, Huang admitted to an extramarital affair with a woman who U.S. intelligence officials — according to The New York Times – say is a spy for China's Ministry of State Security.
在Kalshi平台上，投机者认为黄仁勋在2027年前离职的概率仅为17%。这一概率到2028年升至30%，到2029年升至35%。不过，他们认为黄仁勋在2031年前离职的概率为75%。
On Kalshi, speculators say there's just a 17% chance Huang is gone by 2027. Those odds rise to 30% by 2028, and 35% by 2029. However, they think there is a 75% probability that Huang will depart by 2031.
Kalshi上关于黄仁勋离职的合约依据彭博社的信息进行结算。
Contracts on Huang's departure on Kalshi are resolved using information from Bloomberg.
在Polymarket平台上，投机者认为黄仁勋在2027年3月底前辞职或被赶下台的概率仅为四分之一。该平台的合约依据公司或黄仁勋本人的官方声明进行结算。周一消息传出后，英伟达股价下跌超过5%。
On Polymarket, speculators place just one-in-four odds that Huang resigns or is forced out by the end of March 2027. Contracts are resolved on the platform using official statements from the company or Huang himself. Shares of Nvidia were down more than 5% after the news on Monday.
披露：CNBC与Kalshi存在商业关系，包括客户获取和少数股权投资。
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.