班加罗尔，11月10日电 - 路透社调查：所有101位受访经济学家均表示，美联储将在12月将联邦基金利率上调至4.00%-4.25%区间。路透社调查：56位经济学家预计联邦基金利率将在本轮加息周期中见顶于4.00%-4.25%。路透社调查：37位经济学家中有29位表示，中期选举以来，对中期美国通胀前景的风险看法未变。
BENGALURU, Nov 10 - REUTERS POLL- US FEDERAL RESERVE WILL HIKE FED FUNDS RATE IN DECEMBER TO 4.00%-4.25%, SAID ALL 101 ECONOMISTSREUTERS POLL-FED FUNDS RATE WILL PEAK AT 4.00%-4.25% IN CURRENT HIKING CAMPAIGN, SAID 56 OF 101 ECONOMISTSREUTERS POLL-RISK TO MEDIUM TERM US INFLATION VIEW HASN’T CHANGED SINCE MIDTERM ELECTIONS, SAID 29 OF 37 ECONOMISTSThe US Federal Reserve will hike interest rates for a second and final time in the current cycle in December, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters who said the risks to their inflation outlook had not changed since the midterm elections.
根据路透社对经济学家的调查，大多数受访者认为，美联储将在12月进行本轮周期中的第二次、也是最后一次加息。他们表示，中期选举以来，其通胀前景的风险看法并未改变。
Voters focused on the rising cost of living, fueled by Republican President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and higher energy costs from the war with Iran, handed solid majorities in both houses of Congress to the Democratic Party.
选民关注不断上涨的生活成本，这受共和党总统唐纳德·特朗普的贸易关税以及与伊朗战争导致的能源成本上升推动，使民主党在参众两院均获得了稳固多数席位。
However, the political shift is unlikely to bring rapid relief from inflation, even after oil futures tumbled more than 22% from their late-October high on hopes of a resolution to the nearly 9-month-old Middle East conflict.
然而，即使石油期货价格从10月下旬高点暴跌逾22%，市场寄希望于这场持续近9个月的中东冲突得到解决，这种政治格局的变化也不大可能迅速缓解通胀。
A strong jobs market, resilient economic growth and inflation stuck above the Fed’s 2% target for nearly six years all suggest further tightening is required.
强劲的就业市场、有韧性的经济增长，以及通胀连续近六年卡在美联储2%目标之上，所有这些都表明仍需进一步收紧政策。
The central bank raised the federal funds rate in September but paused in October. It is forecast to hike one more time by 25 basis points in December to a 4.00%-4.25% range, unchanged from last month’s survey, according to all 101 economists in the November 6-10 Reuters poll.
美联储在9月加息，10月暂停。根据11月6日至10日进行的路透社调查，所有101位经济学家均预测，央行将在12月再加息一次，幅度为25个基点，将利率区间上调至4.00%-4.25%，这与上个月调查结果一致。
"The Fed is at the mercy of incoming inflation data and it will lend itself to the Fed raising rates once more," said Tom Porcelli, chief economist at Wells Fargo. "There was a fair argument that the Fed could have easily raised rates at this October meeting." Around 55% of forecasters, 56 of 101, expect December’s move to mark the end of the current cycle, also broadly steady compared with last month.
富国银行首席经济学家汤姆·波尔切利表示：“美联储受制于即将公布的通胀数据，这将导致美联储再加息一次。美联储本可以在10月这次会议上轻松加息，这有一个相当充分的理由。”约55%的预测者，即101位中有56位，预计12月的行动将标志着本轮周期的结束，这也与上个月大体持平。
A strong minority, 45, including more than half of the primary dealers surveyed, still see at least two more increases ahead, in line with market pricing.
仍有相当一部分少数派，即45位受访者，其中包括超过一半的受访初级交易商，仍预计未来至少还会加息两次，这与市场定价一致。
If the consensus view proves correct, just two rate rises would be the shortest Fed rate-hiking campaign in more than a decade.
如果共识观点被证明是正确的，仅加息两次将是十多年来美联储最短的加息周期。
A majority of economists who answered an additional question, 29 of 37, also said the risk to their medium-term inflation views had not changed since last week’s midterm elections.
在回答一个额外问题的经济学家中，多数派即37位中的29位也表示，自上周中期选举以来，他们对中期通胀前景的风险看法没有改变。决策者对通胀威胁的严重程度存在分歧。
There are differences of opinion among policymakers on the severity of the inflation threat.
美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒周二表示，即使通胀降温，美联储也应在12月加息，并考虑如果通胀加速则采取更大幅度的行动；而一天前，里奇蒙德联储主席汤姆·巴尔金表示，货币政策应“谨慎”调整。另一路透社调查显示，周二晚些时候公布的10月消费者价格指数（CPI）预计将显示通胀回升。
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Tuesday that the Fed should raise rates in December even if inflation cools and consider a bigger move if it accelerates, while a day earlier Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said monetary policy should be moved only "with care." The October Consumer Price Index, due later on Tuesday, is expected to show inflation picking up, a separate Reuters survey showed.
社会生成银行首席美国经济学家扬·格罗恩表示：“老实说，我认为通胀软化的迹象并不在管道里。对我来说，核心通胀在今年秋冬季和明年第一季度出现有意义的再加速这一情景依然存在。”
"I don’t think any softening in inflation is in the pipeline, to be honest. For me, the scenario is still of a meaningful re-acceleration in core inflation into the fall of the winter and Q1 of next year," said Jan Groen, chief US economist at Societe Generale.
调查中位数显示，作为美联储首选通胀指标的个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数在未来几个季度将仍比2%高出一个百分点以上，且至少要到2028年才会回到目标水平。
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will remain more than a percentage point above 2% over coming quarters and not return to target until at least 2028, poll medians showed.
预计今明两年PCE物价指数将分别平均上涨3.5%和2.6%，略高于上个月的预测。
It is expected to average 3.5% and 2.6% this year and next, respectively, slightly higher than forecast last month.
在第三季度以3.4%的年化率扩张后，预计本季度经济将增长2.2%，主要得益于人工智能驱动的投资。按年率计算，预计今年增长2.4%，2027年增长2.2%，均较上月预测略有上调。
The economy is expected to grow 2.2% this quarter after expanding at a 3.4% annualized pace in the third quarter, powered largely by AI-driven investment. On an annual basis, growth is forecast at 2.4% this year and 2.2% in 2027, slight upgrades from last month’s forecasts.
多数经济学家，即41位中的27位，表示自中期选举以来，他们对人工智能资本支出的看法没有改变。
A majority of economists, 27 of 41, said their view on AI capital spending had not changed since the midterm elections.
“我不认为明年在人工智能相关的企业投资支出方面会出现突然的大幅打击。我认为肯定会放缓，只是因为利率较高。越来越多的人工智能建设是通过企业发债融资的，”兴业银行的Groen补充道。
"I don’t think we’re going to see a sudden big hit next year in terms of AI related business investment spending. It’s definitely going to slow, I think, just because of higher interest rates. A lot of the AI buildout is more and more financed through corporate bond issuance," added Societe Generale’s Groen.