班加罗尔，11月12日 - 路透社调查的大多数经济学家预计，欧洲央行将于下个月实施本轮周期内的最后一次存款利率上调，尽管超过三分之一的人预计，随着通胀率升至2%目标的两倍，明年年初还将再次加息。
BENGALURU, Nov 12 - The European Central Bank will deliver a final deposit rate hike in this cycle next month, according to most economists polled by Reuters, although more than a third expect an additional increase in early 2027 as inflation hits double the 2% target.
决策者几乎已确定12月加息，以防止高昂的能源成本产生二轮效应，一旦形成，这种效应就难以打破。
Policymakers have almost locked in the December lift to pre-empt second-round effects from elevated energy costs that are hard to break once they set in.
经济增长强劲，上月通胀率升至三年高点4%，加上进一步上升的风险，导致市场已将12月之后至少再次加息计入定价。
Resilient economic growth and inflation rising to a three-year high of 4% last month, alongside risks of a further pickup, have led markets to price in at least one more rate rise after December.
大多数经济学家尚未将其纳入基准预测。然而，他们越来越接近这一预期，并警告不要从近几周石油期货下跌超过20%中获得过多安慰。冬季来临前天然气储存水平偏低，正在增加通胀风险。
Most economists have yet to put it in their baseline forecasts. However, they are edging closer, warning against drawing too much comfort from a more than 20% slump in oil futures in recent weeks. Low natural gas storage levels ahead of winter are adding to inflation risks.
所有在11月10日至12日接受调查的71名经济学家都预计，欧洲央行将在12月将存款利率上调至2.75%。该央行此前已在6月和9月采取行动。
如果实施，这将把利率推至欧洲央行最近估计的中性区间1.75%-2.50%之上，该水平被认为对经济既不具有刺激性，也不具有限制性。
All 71 economists polled November 10-12 expected the ECB, which already acted in June and September, to hike its deposit rate to 2.75% in December. If delivered, that would push the rate above the ECB’s recent estimated neutral range of 1.75%-2.50%, a level considered neither stimulative nor restrictive for the economy. "The December hike is almost on autopilot.
“12月加息几乎是板上钉钉的事。在我看来，他们在10月达成了某种协议，当时条件可能已经成熟可以加息，但他们希望保持加息的审慎步伐，”惠灵顿管理公司首席欧洲经济学家法比奥·巴尔博尼说。
It seems to me they made some sort of a deal in October whereby the conditions were probably ready to hike but they wanted to stick to the measured pace of hikes," Fabio Balboni, chief European economist at Wellington Management, said.
“3月仍有可能，我会说是五五开，因为核心通胀将一直高企到3月，他们可能希望谨慎行事，也许会再进行一次保险性加息，”他补充道。
"March is still a possibility, I would say 50/50, because core will grind higher through to March and they might want to err on the side of caution and maybe do another insurance hike," he added.
但目前，巴尔博尼预计，除非能源价格再次飙升，否则12月将是最后一次行动。
But for now, Balboni expects December to be the last move unless energy prices flare up again.
65%的多数，即71人中的46人，预计存款利率将在12月达到2.75%的峰值。但超过三分之一，即25人，预计还将再次加息，最可能是在2027年第一季度。市场目前预计，到明年底将加息两到三次。
A 65% majority, 46 of 71, predicted the deposit rate will peak at 2.75% in December. But more than a third, 25, expect another increase, most likely in the first quarter of 2027. Markets are currently pricing in two to three hikes by the end of next year.
“我们看到的能源价格下跌，在风险图景方面略显误导。关于中东是否能实现和平，仍存在大量不确定性，且天然气库存仍维持在极低水平，”北欧联合银行首席分析师扬·冯·格里希表示。
"The downward move we have seen in energy prices is a bit misleading in terms of the risk picture. There’s still plenty of uncertainty about whether we get peace in the Middle East and gas inventories continue to run at exceptionally low levels," Jan von Gerich, chief analyst at Nordea, said.
“如果遇到寒冷的冬天，天然气价格很容易出现大幅飙升。此时断言一切安好还为时过早……如果他们认为上行通胀风险是主要威胁，最好朝着至少温和限制性的方向迈进。”经济学家们上调了较一个月前的通胀预测，预计物价涨幅将维持在欧洲央行目标的两倍左右，至少持续到2027年第二季度。今明两年通胀均值分别预计为3.1%和2.8%，高于上次调查的3.0%和2.6%。
"If we get a cold winter, then we could easily see gas prices really spiking. It would be way too early for them to conclude at this point all is well ... It’s better to go towards at least mildly restrictive if they think the upside inflation risks are the main threat here." Economists raised their inflation forecasts from a month ago, seeing price growth staying around twice the ECB’s target until at least Q2 2027. It will average 3.1% and 2.8% this year and next, up from 3.0% and 2.6% in the previous survey.
潜在价格压力也预计将增强。10月核心通胀率为2.2%，预计本季度和下季度均值将分别达到2.6%和2.8%，高于上月预测。惠灵顿管理公司的巴尔博尼认为核心通胀将进一步上升。
Underlying price pressures are also expected to strengthen. Core inflation, at 2.2% in October, is forecast to average 2.6% this quarter and 2.8% next, higher than last month’s predictions. Wellington Management’s Balboni sees core inflation rising further.
“指望工资完全不上涨是不现实的。我的意思是，实际收入已经遭受了近2%的冲击，所以我预计工会至少会部分尝试收回损失的购买力，”他说。
"It’s unrealistic to expect there will not be any pickup in wages. I mean, we’ve had almost a 2% shock to real incomes, so I would expect, at least partially, unions to try to recoup some of that lost purchasing power," he said.
经济增长预计今明两年分别为1.1%和1.3%，高于10月调查的1.0%和1.2%。
Growth was forecast at 1.1% and 1.3% this year and next, up from 1.0% and 1.2% in the October survey.