评估每年的全球气温需要结合背景来看。年与年之间存在相当多的自然波动，因此重要的是关注长期趋势。众所周知，全球变暖并没有像一些人二十年前所声称的那样在1998年结束——我们只是在一次非常强烈的厄尔尼诺之后，经历了一段由拉尼娜主导的年份。
Evaluating the annual global temperatures each year requires context. There is a fair amount of natural variability from one year to the next, so it’s important to focus on the trend over time. Famously, global warming did not end in 1998, as some claimed a couple of decades ago—we just had a run of La-Niña-dominated years after a very strong El Niño.
年度温室气体排放量的波动要小得多，一直相当稳定地增长，但仍有许多复杂因素会模糊整体图景。有时这些因素共同作用，使某一年的数据偏离趋势。看起来2026年将是这样的年份之一。
Annual greenhouse gas emissions are much less variable, having increased fairly steadily, but many complicating factors can still muddy the picture. Sometimes those factors conspire to throw a year off the trend. It looks like 2026 will be one of those years.
由东英吉利大学的科琳·勒凯雷领导的一项新分析估计，化石燃料排放量比去年下降了约0.4%。不过，这很可能不是一个象征气候变化应对取得鼓舞人心进展的峰值；研究人员认为，这是由伊朗战争及其对油价的影响所导致的短期下降。
A new analysis led by Corinne Le Quéré at the University of East Anglia estimates that fossil fuel emissions have fallen about 0.4 percent from last year. This probably isn’t a peak that symbolizes heartening progress on climate change, though; the researchers think it’s a short-term dip driven by the war in Iran and its effect on oil prices.