伊朗战争爆发后油气价格飙升，促使人们寻求化石燃料以外的替代能源，从而导致今年破坏气候的碳排放有所缓和。
Soaring oil and gas prices following the war in Iran have encouraged people to look beyond fossil fuels, leading to an easing of climate-damaging carbon emissions this year.
科学家的一项综合评估显示，根据今年以来的数据预测，2026年石油、天然气和煤炭产生的二氧化碳排放量将趋于平稳。仅燃烧石油产生的排放量将下降2%，因为驾驶员在节约燃油使用并纷纷转向电动汽车。
Carbon dioxide from oil, gas and coal is forecast to flatline for 2026, based on data from the year so far, according to a comprehensive assessment by scientists. Emissions from burning oil alone will drop by 2% as drivers economise on fuel use and flock to electric vehicles instead.
这些发现于周二上午在土耳其安塔利亚举行的第31届缔约方大会（Cop31）气候谈判上发布，显示了伊朗战争的影响以及廉价可再生能源（主要是太阳能和风能）的全球扩张。
The findings, presented on Tuesday morning at the Cop31 climate talks hosted by Turkey in Antalya, show both the impact of the Iran war and the global expansion of cheap renewable energy, chiefly solar and wind power.
不过，报告作者和其他分析师表示，谈论全球性的扭转还为时过早。与去年相比，2026年化石燃料排放量的减少幅度约为0.4%。
Talk of a global turnaround would be premature, however, the report’s authors and other analysts said. The reduction in emissions from fossil fuels for 2026 will be about 0.4% compared with last year.
然而，今年的轻微下降可能是暂时的，且被因东南亚发生大火以及更多荒野被转为农田而导致的毁林和土地利用变化排放增加所抵消。
Yet this year’s slight fall could be temporary, and was more than offset by increased emissions from deforestation and land use change, following major fires in south-east Asia and further conversions of wild land to agriculture.
许多因素可能破坏化石燃料排放放缓的脆弱趋势，包括印度煤炭扩张加剧、油价回落以及美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对化石燃料的热衷。报告作者表示，要实现年度排放量的永久性减少，仍需要在可再生能源以及电动汽车等低碳技术方面进行大得多的投资。
Many factors could disrupt the fragile trend of slowing emissions from fossil fuels, including an intensified expansion of coal in India, an easing of oil prices and US president Donald Trump’s enthusiasm for fossil fuels. Much greater investment in renewable energy, and low-carbon technology such as electric vehicles, would still be required to make permanent reductions in annual emissions, the report’s authors said.
西塞罗国际气候研究中心研究教授格伦·彼得斯表示：“单一年份的排放下降不代表达到了峰值，除非这是由结构性变化驱动的。太阳能、风能、电池和电动汽车的加速部署正在推动数十个国家的排放下降，并在更多国家放缓排放增长，但这些变化尚不足以锁定全球排放的峰值。”
Glen Peters, research professor at the Cicero Centre for International Climate Research, said: “A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak, unless it is driven by structural change. Accelerated deployment of solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles are pushing emissions down in dozens of countries, and slowing emissions growth in many more, but the changes are not sufficient to lock in a peak in global emissions.”
据全球碳预算显示，今年将排放约382亿吨二氧化碳。全球碳预算是由世界各地数十所大学和科研机构的科学家每年进行的评估，发表在《地球系统科学数据》期刊上。
About 38.2bn tonnes of CO2 will be emitted this year, according to the Global Carbon Budget, an annual assessment by scientists from scores of universities and science institutions around the world, published in the journal Earth System Science Data. Energy demand continues to increase around the world, as more people gain access to electricity and are pulled out of poverty, but two-thirds of the increase is being met from rising generation from the sun and wind and the uptake of electric vehicles.
随着更多人获得用电机会并摆脱贫困，全球能源需求持续增加，但其中三分之二的增量是由太阳能和风能发电的增加以及电动汽车的普及来满足的。
On the downside, emissions from deforestation and the conversion of land to agriculture have also ticked upward this year, leading to total carbon emissions rising slightly for the year, from 42.8bn tonnes last year to 43.3bn forecast for 2026.
不利方面是，今年因毁林和土地转为农业用地产生的排放也有所上升，导致全年碳排放总量略微上升，从去年的428亿吨增至预计2026年的433亿吨。
The scientists warned that the world’s remaining “carbon budget” – the amount of carbon that can be poured into the atmosphere before global heating is likely to permanently exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – was about 150bn tonnes, or less than four years at current rates.
科学家警告称，世界剩余的“碳预算”——即在全球升温很可能永久超过工业化前水平1.5摄氏度之前，还能向大气排放的碳量——约为1500亿吨，按当前速度不足四年。
Already, temperatures have exceeded the 1.5C threshold for more than two years, and El Niño conditions are heating the sea and air further.
目前，气温已连续两年多超过1.5摄氏度的阈值，厄尔尼诺现象正进一步加热海洋和大气。如果世界要有机会限制气温超过1.5摄氏度的“超调”幅度，全球排放必须迅速达峰，并在随后几年大幅下降。
Global emissions must peak imminently and fall rapidly in subsequent years if the world is to have a chance of limiting the “overshoot” of temperatures above 1.5C. China, the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, is likely to reduce its carbon output by close to 1% this year, mostly because of a 5% reduction in oil use, following the Iran war.
中国是世界最大的温室气体排放国，今年碳排放量有望减少近1%，主要得益于伊朗战争后石油使用量减少5%。彼得斯表示：“过去几年中国排放量趋于平稳，此前十年曾大幅增长。关于中国是否已达峰，讨论很多。这究竟是一次性波动，还是明年中国会反弹，我们还得拭目以待，现在下结论为时过早。”印度排放量大幅增长，主要源于煤炭使用增加，而该国石油使用量略有下降。美国排放量今年预计下降约1.3%，因煤炭使用减少，尽管特朗普曾试图提振煤炭产业。
Peters said: “China has had flat emissions for the last few years after a fairly steep increase in the last decade. There’s been a lot of discussion about whether China has peaked or not. Whether this is just a one-off and China rebounds next year, we’ll have to wait and see, it’s too early to say.”India’s emissions have grown strongly, mostly from an increase in coal use, while the country’s oil use has declined slightly. Emissions from the US are likely to fall by about 1.3% this year, as less coal is used, despite Trump’s attempts to boost it. Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics, who was not involved in the research, cautioned against taking too much from the report.
未参与该研究的气候分析机构首席执行官比尔·黑尔对过度解读报告提出警示。他说：“全球碳预算呈现的是平稳态势，而非下降——预计2026年仅下降0.4%，这一数字在统计学上不幸地与零无法区分。我们正朝着2030年前后持续突破1.5℃的方向发展。面对迫在眉睫的超标，我们有理由期待各国政府果断采取行动，削减化石燃料二氧化碳排放。”
“The picture from the Global Carbon Budget is a flatline, not a decline – a projected fall of just 0.4% in 2026, a figure that is unfortunately statistically indistinguishable from zero,” he said. “We are heading towards a sustained breach of 1.5C by around 2030. With imminent overshoot, we are entitled to expect governments everywhere to move decisively to cut fossil fuel CO2 emissions.”
在第31届缔约方大会上，似乎鲜有此类果断举措的迹象，90多位国家元首和政府首脑，以及190多个国家的高级别代表正聚集一堂，进行为期两周的气候危机谈判。
There seemed little sign of such a decisive move at Cop31, where more than 90 heads of state and government, and high-level representatives from more than 190 countries are gathering for a fortnight of talks on the climate crisis.
黑尔表示：“我们看到加拿大、美国和新西兰等国的政府正在尽可能快地撤销气候政策，而澳大利亚等国——作为第31届缔约方大会的联合主席国——仍在继续大力推进大规模煤炭和天然气开发项目，使化石燃料二氧化碳排放量维持在创纪录水平。目前几乎没有迹象表明，土耳其和澳大利亚的领导层[即第31届缔约方大会的领导层]打算在[三年前作出的逐步摆脱化石燃料的承诺]基础上采取更有力的行动。”
Hare said: “We see governments in countries such as Canada, the US and New Zealand rolling back climate policies as fast as they can, and countries such as Australia – co-president of Cop31 – continuing to press forward with massive coal and gas developments that are holding fossil fuel CO2 emissions at record levels. There is little sign yet that the Turkish and Australian leadership [of Cop31] intends to build on [the commitment to transition away from fossil fuels made three years ago] with stronger action.”