Global Carbon Budget Projects 0.4% Drop in 2026 Fossil Fuel Emissions Amid Clean Energy Growth and Energy Shocks
2026年11月10日发布的最新《全球碳预算》（Global Carbon Budget）报告显示，2026年全球化石燃料二氧化碳排放量预计将下降0.4%，降至382亿吨。“全球碳计划”（Global Carbon Project）的研究人员指出，这一降幅主要得益于太阳能和风能的快速推广，以及伊朗冲突导致的石油消费减少。尽管中国、美国和欧盟的排放量均有所下降，但印度的排放量却增长了4.4%。此外，土地利用产生的排放增加，使得全球碳排放总量推高至433亿吨。科学家强调，地缘政治冲击无法取代长久且结构性的脱碳努力，并警告称，实现1.5摄氏度温控目标的剩余碳预算目前已降至约1500亿吨。
Global fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions are projected to decrease by 0.4% to 38.2 billion tonnes in 2026, according to the latest Global Carbon Budget released on November 10, 2026. Researchers from the Global Carbon Project attributed the drop to rapid solar and wind deployment as well as reduced oil consumption driven by the Iran conflict. Despite decreases in China, the United States, and the European Union, India's emissions rose by 4.4%. Additionally, higher land-use emissions brought total carbon emissions up to 43.3 billion tonnes. Scientists caution that geopolitical shocks cannot replace durable structural decarbonization, warning that the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C warming is now down to roughly 150 billion tonnes.
—— University of Exeter 2026-11-10 UTC