由于美国通胀高于预期，强化了美联储下个月加息的预期，美元正朝着自9月以来最大涨幅迈进。
The dollar headed for its strongest gain since September after hotter-than-forecast US inflation reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike next month.
周二，彭博美元现货指数上涨0.6%，此前一项关键消费者物价指标连续第三个月超出预期。美元对所有主要货币均走强，挪威克朗、澳元和瑞典克朗跌幅均超过1%。日元对美元一度下跌0.6%。
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6% on Tuesday after a key measure of consumer prices topped estimates for a third consecutive month. The dollar strengthened against all of its major peers, with the Norwegian krone, Australian dollar and Swedish krona falling more than 1%. The yen fell as much as 0.6% against the dollar.
通胀数据紧随美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒的发言之后。沃勒支持12月加息，并表示如果通胀继续加速，他将支持加息半个百分点。根据劳工统计局的数据，不含食品和能源的消费者价格10月较上月上涨0.3%。总体而言，价格上涨0.4%。
The inflation data followed comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who backed a rate hike in December and said he would support a half-percentage-point increase if inflation continues to accelerate. Consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% in October from a month earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Overall, prices climbed by 0.4%.
“50个基点的加息现在被视为一种真实的可能性，此前我认为没有人真的在考虑这一点，”Monex Inc.外汇交易员安德鲁·哈泽特说。“利率可能会维持高位更长时间。”交易员增加了对2027年更多加息的押注，并开始将12月出现大幅加息半个百分点的小概率计入定价。此前，他们已完全将下个月加息四分之一百分点的预期计入定价。
“A 50-basis-point hike is now being considered as a real possibility, and I don’t think anyone was really considering that before,” said Andrew Hazlett, a foreign-exchange trader at Monex Inc. “Rates will likely stay higher for longer.”Traders added to bets on more hikes in 2027 and started to price in a small chance of a jumbo-sized half-point move in December. Earlier, they’d fully priced in expectations for a quarter-point increase next month.
达拉斯联储行长洛丽·洛根周二在通胀数据公布后的一次讲话中支持至少再加息两个四分之一百分点。
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan backed at least two additional quarter-point rate increases in a speech Tuesday following the inflation print.
彭博策略师表示：“美联储最终是否会将鹰派言辞转化为行动，结论尚未定论，但得益于利率市场，美元走高的机会正在增加。”——布伦丹·法根，宏观策略师，市场直播。本月迄今，美元上涨0.5%。在中期选举后，美元走强，其驱动因素大体保持不变，因为在科技股近期抛售期间，交易员转向避险资产。
What Bloomberg strategists say: “The jury is ultimately still out on whether the Fed matches the hawkish rhetoric with action, but the dollar’s chances of breaking higher are rising thanks to the rates market.”—Brendan Fagan, Macro Strategist, Markets LiveFor the full analysis, click here The dollar is up 0.5% so far this month, emerging from the US midterm elections stronger with its drivers largely intact as traders turned to the haven during a recent selloff in technology stocks.
野村国际有限公司外汇策略师宫入祐介表示：“除非出现会削弱市场对鹰派美联储热情的负面事件，否则投资者很难对抗美元走强。”
“It will be challenging for investors to fight dollar rally unless we have negative events that will reduce the market’s excitement on hawkish Fed,” said Yusuke Miyairi, a foreign-exchange strategist at Nomura International Plc.