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美元卖家暂停观望美国通胀数据Dollar sellers hit pause for US inflation data

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悉尼,11月10日——美元在经历了动荡的几天后获得支撑,并在周二的亚洲交易时段保持坚挺,交易员们正等待美国通胀数据,该数据若能增强加息预期,可能会推高美元。

SYDNEY, Nov 10 - The dollar found support following a bumpy few days and held firm in Tuesday’s Asia session while traders waited for US inflation data, which could push it higher if it bolsters rate hike bets.

油价下跌以及隔夜股市上涨曾令美元走低,因投资者重新转向风险较高的资产。

A tumble in oil prices and gains overnight for stocks had knocked the dollar lower as investors rotated back into riskier assets.

受贸易和市场情绪影响的澳元周一上涨近1%,周二早盘报0.6921美元,新西兰元涨幅更大,报0.5624美元,两者在亚洲早盘交易中均保持稳定。

The trade and sentiment-sensitive Australian dollar rose by nearly 1% through Monday to sit at $0.6921 early on Tuesday and the New Zealand dollar rose even further to trade at $0.5624, with both steady in morning Asia trade.

欧元隔夜跳涨0.7%,报1.1220美元,扭转了周五的跌势。周五强劲的美国就业数据显示美元和利率预期走高,使欧元/美元汇率大致回到一个月来的交易区间的中部。

The euro jumped 0.7% overnight to $1.1220, reversing a Friday fall when strong US jobs data lifted the dollar and interest rate expectations, and putting the euro/dollar pair roughly into the middle of a range it has held for a month.

市场美元仓位较重,美元指数今年以来上涨,因此前对美国降息的预期迅速转变为加息押注,此前美伊战争推高了能源价格并加剧了通胀。

The market is long dollars and the dollar index has gained this year as early expectations for US interest rate cuts quickly turned to bets on hikes after the US-Israeli war on Iran drove up energy prices and fuelled inflation.

周五公布的10月份强劲就业报告显示,招聘人数是预期的两倍多,市场预计美联储下个月加息的可能性为85%。

A blowout October jobs report on Friday, with hiring more than twice forecasts, has markets pricing an 85% chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase next month.

路透社调查的经济学家预计,10月份美国消费者物价指数(CPI)同比涨幅将达到3.9%,核心通胀率将达到2.8%,因此分析师表示,任何高于此的数据都将增加加息预期,并可能提振美元。

US CPI AWAITED Headline inflation is seen picking up to 3.9% and core to 2.8%, year-on-year, in October, according to economists polled by Reuters, so anything hotter than that will add to rate hike expectations and probably lift the dollar, analysts said.

西太平洋银行(Westpac)驻奥克兰的策略师Imre Speizer表示:“12月份的(加息)幅度只能稍微增加一点,但未来会议的预期可能会更高。”

"You can only put a little bit more (in the price) in December, but the price for meetings into the future could go higher," said Imre Speizer, strategist at Westpac in Auckland.

市场已消化了明年年中前两次美国加息的预期,尽管近期人工智能(AI)股票的动荡使前景有所黯淡,人们担心民主党赢得国会控制权可能导致更严格的监管并减缓AI热潮。

Markets have priced two US hikes by the middle of next year, though the outlook has dimmed somewhat amid the recent turbulence in AI stocks on fears a Democratic sweep of Congress could lead to tighter regulation and slow the AI boom.

“这可能是一个在2027年拖累美国经济增长并帮助美元触顶的因素,”麦格理策略师蒂埃里·维兹曼和加雷斯·贝里在一份客户报告中表示。

"This could be a factor that slows US growth in 2027 and helps put a top in for the dollar," said Macquarie strategists Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry in a note to clients.

英镑上周在英国央行三年来首次加息后获得支撑,目前报1.3441美元,处于近一年半以来交易区间的中间位置。[英镑/]日元兑美元汇率徘徊在157.97,在过去六个月中,由于日本政府的强力干预,日元成为G10货币中表现最好的货币。

Sterling, which has drawn support since the Bank of England hiked interest rates for the first time in three years last week, sat in the middle of a range it has traded in for almost a year and a half at $1.3441. [GBP/] Japan’s yen hovered at 157.97 per dollar, having been the best-performing G10 currency against the greenback over the past six months on the back of heavy official intervention.

周一公布的数据显示,日本在7月下旬和8月期间,为捍卫日元而动用了970亿美元的储备,当时日元兑美元汇率跌至四十年来新低。尽管日本12月加息的预期近期有所减弱,但进一步抛售美元的威胁仍使日元保持稳定。

Figures on Monday showed Japan sold $97 billion in reserves defending the yen through late July and August as it traversed four-decade lows on the dollar. The threat of further dollar sales is keeping the currency steady, even as expectations for a December rate hike in Japan have lately faded.

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