CNBC“投资俱乐部：吉姆·克雷默”每个工作日都会发布“收盘前瞻”，这是一份可操作的下午更新，正好赶上华尔街最后一小时的交易时间。周二，市场普遍下跌，抹去了周一标普500指数和纳斯达克指数超过2%涨幅的大部分。波动依然居高不下，股票涨跌日复一日地反复无常。这就是为什么我们不愿在股价上涨时追高，也不会在大幅下跌后过于悲观。
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Markets fell broadly on Tuesday , reversing a large chunk of Monday's more than 2% gains in the S & P 500 and Nasdaq . Volatility remains elevated, with stocks flipping from one day to the next. That's why we are hesitant to chase stocks higher or turn too negative after a big downdraft.
市场正努力理清的是中期选举对数据中心建设的影响，以及英伟达持续存在的争议。周二早上，我们将这家芯片制造商的评级下调至2，因为过去两天股价下跌了10%，但对我们来说，买入股票的不确定性仍然太大。10年期国债收益率重新飙升至5%，此前10月份消费者物价指数高于预期。CPI同比上涨0.4%，快于经济学家预期的0.3%。
What the market is struggling to sort out is the midterm election's impact on the data center buildout and the ongoing controversy at Nvidia . We downgraded our rating on the chipmaker to a 2 on Tuesday morning because there is too much uncertainty for us to buy shares, even after a 10% decline over the past two days. The 10-year Treasury yield surged back to 5% after the October consumer prices came in hotter than expected. The CPI rose 0.4% year over year, faster than the 0.3% that economists expected.
剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心CPI上涨0.3%，高于预期的0.2%。由于去年政府停摆导致无法公布2025年10月的数据，未提供同比数据。CPI大幅提高了市场对美联储12月会议加息的预期。根据CME美联储观察工具，市场不仅已完全将下个月加息25个基点计入价格，还认为美联储加息50个基点的概率为12%。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒在数据公布前，周二一早就引发了关于50个基点加息的讨论。
Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3%, above the 0.2% forecast. No year-over-year figures were provided because last year's government shutdown prevented the release of October 2025 data. The CPI sharply raised Fed rate hike expectations at its upcoming December meeting. Not only is the market now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point increase next month, but it also puts a 12% probability on the Fed raising rates by 50 basis points, according to CME FedWatch. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller got the 50-basis-point conversation going early Tuesday, before the data was released.
沃勒在伦敦的一个活动上表示，如果10月份的数据疲软，他“倾向于”加息，但如果数据偏热，他将支持“更有力的行动”。而情况正是如此。软银决定重新考虑其为美国人工智能数据中心采购电力设备的方式后，通用电气维诺瓦股票周二大幅下跌。
Waller said at an event in London that he was "leaning toward" raising rates if October's data was soft, but would support "more robust action" if the data came in hot. And that's exactly what we got. GE Vernova shares tumbled Tuesday after SoftBank decided to re-think the way it purchases power equipment for its U.S. artificial intelligence data centers.
为此，日本财团披露，截至9月30日的六个月内，因支付“非退还预付款”，即所谓的“槽位费”，以在担心设备短缺的情况下确保设备，录得37亿美元的亏损。原因是什么？软银管理层表示，美国数据中心建设的起伏变化如此之快，以至于可能需要调整哪些设备分配给哪些项目。这项采购流程改革包括软银在俄亥俄州的大型数据中心项目，GE Vernova为该项目提供用于发电的燃气涡轮机，供电在电表之后。
To that end, the Japanese conglomerate disclosed that it recorded a $3.7 billion loss in the six months ending Sept. 30, related to "non-refundable advance payments," or so-called slot fees, paid to secure equipment amid fears of shortages. The reason? SoftBank management said that the ebb and flow of U.S. data center construction is happening so fast that it might have to adjust which equipment gets assigned to which project. Included in this purchase process overhaul is SoftBank's massive Ohio data center project, for which GE Vernova is the supplier of natural gas turbines used to generate behind-the-meter energy.
软银表示，俄亥俄州项目按计划进行，但合同正在修订。它还表示，埃隆·马斯克上周在X上发帖称软银正在拖欠其涡轮机订单，这一说法“完全不正确”。GE Vernova告诉路透社，基于软银的变化，没有“负面或正面影响”。周二给客户的备忘录中，摩根大通表示，如果出现任何延迟或取消，GE Vernova可以将订单转移给等待的客户。
SoftBank said the Ohio project is on track, but the contract is being revised. It also said that Elon Musk claims last week in an X post that SoftBank was defaulting on its turbine orders is "simply not correct at all." GE Vernova told Reuters there is "no negative or positive impact" based on the SoftBank changes. In a Tuesday note to clients, JPMorgan wrote that if any delays or cancellations were to occur, GE Vernova could shift the order to waiting customers.
吉姆·克莱默对情况有类似看法。“该公司的订单已排到2029-2030年，”他周二在CNBC上表示。“如果有空余槽位，当天就会被抢光。”GE Vernova的俱乐部股票下跌约6%，这是过度反应。然而，我们目前不会急于增加数据中心敞口，考虑到上周中期选举中民主党浪潮引发的对建设放缓的担忧。CoreWeave将在收盘后公布财报，这家新云公司关于算力需求、融资环境以及在美国建设新数据中心能力的说法，可能会影响AI交易的情绪。周三开盘前没有重大财报。周三唯一的经济数据发布是每周抵押贷款申请。()
Jim Cramer had a similar read on the situation. "The company is booked through 2029-2030," he said Tuesday on CNBC. "If there are slots available, they're going to be taken by the end of the day." The roughly 6% decline in Club stock GE Vernova is an overreaction. However, we are not rushing in to add to our data center exposure right now, considering the concerns about a slowdown in the buildout due to the Democratic wave in last week's midterm elections. CoreWeave reports earnings after the close , and what the neocloud company says about compute demand, the funding environment, and the ability to build new data centers in the U.S. could influence sentiment around the AI trade. There are no major earnings before the opening bell on Wednesday. The only economic release Wednesday is weekly mortgage applications. ()