美联储理事米歇尔·鲍曼表示，她看到金融市场对经济活动存在多项风险，包括如果人工智能投资回报未达预期，股价可能出现大幅下跌。
Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she sees a number of risks to economic activity from financial markets, including a sharp downturn in stock prices if returns on investments in artificial intelligence fall short of expectations.
鲍曼周二在华盛顿发言时指出，人工智能回报可能导致“股票估值大幅回调”，以及“私人长期利率急剧上升”。
Speaking in Washington on Tuesday, Bowman flagged the risk of “a large correction in equity valuations” stemming from AI returns, along with “a sharp increase in private longer-term rates.”
“股价下跌可能削弱消费支出的韧性，”她说。“利率上升还可能进一步给经济中对利率敏感的领域带来压力，例如住房和小企业投资。”鲍曼还表示，鉴于通胀持续居高不下，她可能支持央行下个月年内最后一次会议上加息。
“Lower equity prices could undermine the resilience in consumer spending,” she said. “And higher interest rates could further strain interest-rate-sensitive sectors of the economy, like housing and small business investment.”Bowman also signaled she could support an interest-rate hike at the central bank’s final meeting of the year next month, amid persistently elevated inflation.
“今天我看到通胀压力持续存在的迹象，而劳动力市场状况似乎正在趋紧，”她说。“这表明，要将通胀更接近2%，仍有工作要做。”美联储官员在10月27日至28日的会议上维持利率不变，此前他们在9月将利率上调了四分之一个百分点。这是自2023年以来的首次加息，决策者试图降低已超过其2%目标超过五年的通胀。
“Today I am seeing signs that inflation pressures are persisting, while labor market conditions appear to be firming,” she said. “This indicates that there is still work to do to bring inflation closer to 2%.”Fed officials left interest rates unchanged at their Oct. 27-28 meeting after raising them by a quarter percentage point in September. That was the first rate hike since 2023 as policymakers seek to cool inflation that has been above their 2% target for more than five years.
鲍曼表示，她支持上个月维持利率不变的决定，以便给央行时间更好地了解情况将如何演变，以及9月的加息将如何影响经济的基本趋势。但她在对外交关系委员会发表的准备发言中表示，最近的通胀数据比她预想的更热。
Bowman said she backed last month’s decision to hold rates steady in order to give the central bank time to better understand how conditions would evolve and how September’s hike would influence the underlying trends in the economy. But recent inflation data have been hotter than she envisioned, she said in prepared remarks before the Council on Foreign Relations.
“虽然我继续预计，目前推高通胀的几个因素明年将会减弱，但目前通胀已被证明比我预期的更具持续性，”她说。
“While I continue to expect that several of the factors currently boosting inflation will abate next year, currently inflation has proven to be more persistent than I had anticipated,” she said.
根据官员们的中位预测，大多数官员在9月份表示，今年还需要至少再加息一次。虽然近期几位美联储官员重申了这一观点，并表示加息可以采取渐进的步伐，但美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒周二早些时候表示，美联储应考虑在12月的下一次会议上加息半个百分点这一更大幅度。
A majority of officials in September signaled at least one more rate increase would be necessary this year, according to their median projection. While several Fed officials have reinforced this view in recent remarks and said hikes can come at a gradual pace, Governor Christopher Waller earlier Tuesday said the Fed should consider raising rates by a larger, half percentage point at its next meeting in December.
沃勒的言论发表于劳工部公布10月份消费者价格涨幅超出预期之际，核心通胀较上月加速至0.3%的步伐，达到了沃勒所说的将助推更大幅度加息的阈值。
Waller’s remarks came just before the Labor Department reported that consumer prices rose by more than expected in October, with core inflation accelerating at a 0.3% pace from a month earlier, meeting the threshold Waller said would fuel the need for a larger sized rate hike.
另据报道，达拉斯联储主席洛丽·洛根周二也发表讲话，她仍认为至少需要再加息两个25个基点。她未承诺实施大幅加息。
Separately, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who also spoke Tuesday, said she still sees the need for at least two quarter-point rate increases. She did not commit to a jumbo-sized hike.
“鉴于当前前景，对我来说仍然很清楚，联邦公开市场委员会需要至少再实施两次25个基点的加息，”洛根在休斯顿一场会议的准备发言中表示，她指的是今年拥有投票权的利率制定机构联邦公开市场委员会。
“It remains clear to me, given the current outlook, that the FOMC needs to implement at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases,” Logan said in prepared remarks for a conference in Houston, referring to the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee on which she votes this year.
在她的讲话中，鲍曼还对快速增长的人工智能相关债务表示担忧，企业债券、私人信贷和项目融资等领域的显著增长，预计今年将超过8000亿美元。
In her speech, Bowman also flagged concerns about rapidly rising AI-related debt, with notable gains in corporate bonds, private credit and project finance, on track to exceed $800 billion this year.
“鉴于其强劲的信用评级，超大规模云服务商和大型科技公司已承担表外负债，以便较小且风险更高的公司将其作为抵押品，用于数据中心建设和购买加速计算设备的资产融资，”她说。“人工智能公司之间的这些联系，还伴随着超大规模云服务商和芯片设计商对购买其产品的较小公司进行股权投资，造成循环融资的表象。”
“Given their strong credit ratings, hyperscalers and large tech firms have assumed off-balance-sheet liabilities to allow smaller and riskier companies to use them as collateral in asset-based financing for data center construction and the purchase of accelerated computing equipment,” she said. “These connections among AI firms have also been accompanied by hyperscalers and chip designers making equity investments in smaller companies that purchase their products, creating the appearance of circular financing.”