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分析:共和党给出对中期选举惨败的回应:加剧对抗Analysis: The GOP delivers its answer to midterms rout: It’s intensifying the fight

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共和党为选民在中期选举中对唐纳德·特朗普总统的惊人谴责,选择了一种违背直觉的补救之道:更多的特朗普主义。

Republicans have chosen a counterintuitive remedy for voters’ stunning midterm election rebuke of President Donald Trump: more Trumpism.

周二,众议院共和党会议选定来自俄亥俄州、作风强硬的众议员吉姆·乔丹,明年领导少数党阵营。就在几天前,总统提拔“美国优先”鼓吹者斯蒂芬·米勒出任白宫幕僚长。

The House GOP conference on Tuesday picked combative Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan to lead its minority next year, days after the president promoted Stephen Miller, the “America first” agitator, to serve as White House chief of staff.

而即将不复存在的共和党众议院多数派,从对选举惨败的哀悼中走出,力保国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯——总统内阁中最具特朗普色彩的成员——免遭弹劾。

And the soon-to-be extinct Republican House majority emerged from mourning the election debacle to save Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth — the Trumpiest member of the president’s Cabinet — from impeachment.

这些举动丝毫不像是一个寻求为全国性惨败(包括在深红地区的失利)赎罪的政党所为。相反,共和党的挑衅似乎印证了即将卸任的众议院议长迈克·约翰逊周一的断言:“选民做出了错误的选择。”除了特朗普本人,乔丹和米勒堪称“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)阵营中最好斗的搭档。

These are hardly the actions of a party seeking to atone for sweeping national losses, including in deep-red territory. Rather the GOP’s defiance seems to animate the verdict of outgoing House Speaker Mike Johnson on Monday: “The voters made the wrong choice.”Aside from Trump, there’s no more pugilistic pair in MAGA politics than Jordan and Miller.

乔丹是一位擅长制造混乱、出手狠辣的高手,在野时或许比在朝时更有效;他在国会听证会上以机关枪般的连珠炮式发问逼退证人,屡掀轩然大波。明年民主党调查攻势展开时,他将成为特朗普的第一道防线。

Jordan is a sharp-elbowed master of disruption who may be even more effective in opposition than in government, and who has sparked uproar in many a congressional hearing with his staccato defenestration of witnesses. He’ll be Trump’s first line of defense when the Democratic investigative blitz fires up next year.

米勒是特朗普基本盘中不加修饰的民族主义化身,将榨取老板剩余两年执政期的每一秒价值。

Miller is the avatar of unfiltered nationalism in Trump’s base and will wring every second from his boss’s remaining two-year lease on power.

2026年11月6日,新任白宫幕僚长斯蒂芬·米勒在佛罗里达州西棕榈滩的棕榈滩国际机场乘坐空军一号抵达后,出现在总统座驾中。Alex Wroblewski/AFP/Getty ImagesNewly appointed White House Chief of Staff Stephen Miller is seen in the Presidential limousine upon arriving on Air Force One at Palm Beach International Airport in West Palm Beach, Florida on November 6, 2026. Alex Wroblewski/AFP/Getty Images

他们的晋升释放出强烈信号:尽管选民上周否决了特朗普政策、表现和个性的多个层面,特朗普式共和党绝无悔意,也不会退缩。这不是一个寻求重塑自我的政党。它想要一场斗争。

Their elevation sends a strong signal that there will be no contrition and no retreats in the Trump GOP just because voters rejected multiple aspects of Trump’s policies, performance and personality last week. This is not a party looking for reinvention. It wants a fight.

旁观者本以为,在特朗普的红色防线崩塌、共和党众参两院双双输给民主党之后,特朗普及其团队会做更多反思。难道该党不需要吸引更广泛的受众,才能扭转颓势、在2028年有机会夺回国会并保住白宫吗?

An outsider might have expected more reflection from Trump and his team after his red wall crumbled and they lost the House and the Senate to Democrats. Surely, the party needs to appeal to a wider audience if it is to reverse its losses and have a chance of winning back Congress and retaining the White House in 2028?

但革命很少会变得更加温和。而在失去政治中间派后,特朗普现在可能只剩下他最忠实的信徒。

But revolutions rarely get more moderate. And having lost the political middle, Trump may now be down to his truest believers.

周二,众议院共和党人出人意料地团结一致,挫败了持不同政见的共和党众议员托马斯·马西弹劾赫格塞斯的尝试,这显示了特朗普在其党内依然强大的掌控力。

His still-strong hold in his party was revealed on Tuesday when the House GOP surprisingly united to stave off dissident GOP Rep. Thomas Massie’s attempt to impeach Hegseth.

挽救赫格塞斯的职位对选民来说似乎是一种侮辱:他是伊朗战争的主要策划者和鼓吹者,即使许多共和党选民也憎恨这场战争。

Saving Hegseth’s job may seem like an insult to voters: He is the primary planner of and cheerleader for the Iran war, which even many GOP voters hate.

2026年11月9日,众议员托马斯·马西在华盛顿特区国会山外,就针对国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯的弹劾条款举行的新闻发布会上发言。Jim Watson/AFP/Getty ImagesRep. Thomas Massie speaks during a press conference on articles of impeachment against Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, outside the Capitol in Washington, DC, on November 9, 2026. Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

但这场投票在共和党遭遇毁灭性的选举之夜一周后,提振了众议院共和党人的士气,并受到特朗普在社交媒体上的狂热庆祝。

But the vote was a morale boost for House Republicans a week after a devastating election night and was exuberantly celebrated by Trump on social media.

尽管如此,民主党即将获得的巨大多数席位意味着,这很可能只是一支已战败之军的殿后之胜。“这不是结束;这只是开始,”民主党众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯说,他有望在新年成为议长。

Still, massive incoming Democratic majorities mean this was likely a rearguard win by an already-defeated army. “This is not the end of it; it’s just the beginning,” said Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is poised to become speaker in the new year.

民主党在中期选举中胜利的规模——他们在参议院已获得54个席位,另有两个席位未宣布结果,在众议院目前已获得256个席位——意味着共和党要在2028年夺回权力面临艰巨任务。

The size of the Democrats’ midterm victory — they are up to 54 seats in the Senate with two undeclared, and 256 seats so far in the House — means Republicans have a massive task to win back power in 2028.

因此,特朗普在未来两年加倍坚持选民已经厌恶的做法,似乎是糟糕的策略。

So two years of Trump doubling down on an approach that voters already hate seems like poor strategy.

但新的共和党反映了一位总统的基因,他一生都在通过加剧斗争来应对每一次失败,往往采取更极端的方式。

But the new Republican Party reflects the DNA of a president who has spent a lifetime responding to every defeat by intensifying the fight, often on more extreme terms.

而在很久以前,特朗普领导的共和党就不再听取评论员、温和派和建制派领袖关于其最明智下一步棋的建议。2012年大选后,该党委托进行了一份“尸检报告”,分析其提名人米特·罗姆尼为何未能阻止奥巴马总统连任。研究发现,共和党需要扩大基本盘,吸引更多元化的非白人、年轻和女性选民,以夺回白宫。但事与愿违:特朗普带着他的民粹主义、民族主义、反移民巨轮横空出世,在一场将陈旧迂腐的老牌共和党按他的形象重塑的竞选中横扫夺权。

And the Trump GOP long ago stopped listening to pundits, moderates and establishment leaders regarding its smartest next steps. After the 2012 election, the party commissioned an autopsy on why its nominee, Mitt Romney, failed to thwart President Barack Obama’s reelection bid. The study found that the GOP needed to broaden its base to appeal to a more diverse base of nonwhite, young and female voters to win back the White House. But the opposite happened: Trump arrived, with his populist, nationalist, anti-immigration juggernaut and swept to power in a race that transformed the starchy old GOP in his image.

乔丹和米勒从2026年选举灾难的废墟中崛起,代表了向特朗普基本盘靠拢的这一转向的更新版本。

The rise of Jordan and Miller from the wreckage of the 2026 electoral catastrophe represents an updated version of this pivot, to Trump’s base.

2026年11月10日,众议员吉姆·乔丹在华盛顿特区国会山,于众议院共和党领导层选举当天接受媒体采访。Annabelle Gordon/ReutersRep. Jim Jordan speaks to the media on the day of House Republican leadership elections at the Capitol in Washington, DC, on November 10, 2026. Annabelle Gordon/Reuters

乔丹的胜利也反映了政治物理学规律。上周民主党的惨败抹去了摇摆选区中最温和的共和党人。幸存者来自最深红的选区,因此更加保守、更加亲特朗普。总统可能对一个规模更小的共和党拥有更紧密的掌控。

Jordan’s victory also reflects political physics. The Democratic rout last week wiped out the most moderate Republicans in swing seats. Survivors are from the deepest-red districts and are therefore more conservative and more pro-Trump. The president might have an even tighter grip on a smaller GOP.

民主党在新一届国会将面临相反的局面,他们在长期被认为本党难以企及的地区获胜。他们的意识形态跨度现在大得多——来自得克萨斯州、堪萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州等红州的参议员将凸显中间派民主党人与来自自由派大本营的进步派之间的内部分歧。

Democrats will face an opposite scenario in the new Congress after winning in areas long thought out of reach for their party. Their ideological span is now far wider — senators from red states like Texas, Kansas and South Carolina will highlight internal divides between centrist Democrats and progressives from liberal bastions.

尽管在中期选举中惨败,共和党基本盘拒绝温和,这一点最好由一场关于移民的激烈争议来说明。此前,特朗普在《60分钟》节目采访中似乎暗示,可能与新的民主党控制的国会达成移民改革协议。国土安全部长马克韦恩·马林随后表示,此类协议可能涉及给予那些童年时期被带入美国的无证移民——即所谓的“梦想家”——永久合法身份。

The GOP base’s refusal to moderate despite a heavy midterms defeat is best illustrated by an intense controversy over immigration, after Trump seemed to hint in a “60 Minutes” interview at a potential deal on immigration reform with the new Democratic Congress. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin then suggested such an agreement could involve permanent legal status for undocumented migrants brought to the US as children — so-called Dreamers.

2026年11月3日,国土安全部长马克韦恩·穆林在华盛顿特区白宫准备接受电视采访。Alex Brandon/APHomeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin prepares to do a television interview at the White House on November 3, 2026, in Washington, DC. Alex Brandon/AP

MAGA社交媒体上的爆发式反应,引发了特朗普正在背叛其最忠诚支持者的担忧。特朗普告诉哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS),大多数美国人可能已经反抗他所实施的严厉移民打压,这可能做得太过火了。但基本盘不想要任何退让。

An explosion on MAGA social media raised the prospect that Trump was betraying his most loyal supporters. A majority of Americans might have rebelled against draconian immigration crackdowns that he told CBS may have gone too far. But the base wants no retreat.

福克斯新闻明星劳拉·英格拉姆周一在其节目中警告不要搞“特赦”,该环节标题为“错误的教训”。到周二晚上,马林上了她的节目,坚称移民和驱逐政策没有任何变化。

Fox News star Laura Ingraham warned on her show Monday against “amnesty” in a segment entitled “Wrong Lessons.”By Tuesday evening, Mullin was on her program to insist nothing had changed in immigration and deportation policy.

事实上,一个仍由特朗普控制的政党在选举后进行方向修正,始终不切实际。共和党在特朗普时代之后可能的重新定位之争,最好留给那些可能领导它的人。这一过程的最初迹象上周可见于副总统JD·万斯和佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯对共和党惨败的反应,万斯否定了这场战争,德桑蒂斯则警告可能出现十年的政治损害。

In truth, it was always unrealistic for a party still controlled by Trump to course-correct after the election. A debate over the potential repositioning of the GOP in the post-Trump era is best left to those who might lead it. First hints of that process could be seen last week in reactions to the GOP wipeout by Vice President JD Vance, who repudiated the war, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who warned of a possible decade of political damage.

但目前,特朗普、米勒、乔丹和赫格塞思的表演正在为最后一季做准备。这意味着2027年将是华盛顿动荡不安的一年。

But for now, the Trump, Miller, Jordan and Hegseth show is gearing up for a final season. That means 2027 will be a tempestuous year in Washington.

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