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通胀居高不下加之美联储鹰派言论推高加息押盘,美元走强Dollar gains as hot inflation, hawkish Fed talk lift rate-hike bets

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这张插图拍摄于2022年6月16日,图中可见日元和美元纸币。路透社/弗洛伦斯·罗/插图Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration

11月11日:周三,美元兑多数货币上涨,在前一天公布通胀数据以及美联储官员发表鹰派言论后扩大涨幅,这些因素助长了美国央行将于下个月加息的押盘。

Nov 11 : The dollar rose against most currencies on Wednesday, extending gains after inflation data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials a day earlier fuelled bets that the US central bank will raise interest rates next month.

衡量美元兑一篮子六种货币强弱的美元指数上涨0.2%,至102.4,逼近约两周来的最高水平。

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was 0.2 per cent higher at 102.4, closing in on a high not seen in about two weeks.

周二,该指标上涨了0.5%。此前公布的数据显示,由于食品和住宿成本上升,美国10月消费价格涨幅超预期,标志着物价连续第三个月出现超预期的意外上行。

The gauge traded up 0.5 per cent on Tuesday after data showed US consumer prices increased by more than expected in October amid higher costs for food and accommodations, marking a third consecutive month of upside surprises.

伦敦Marex的外汇交易员罗里·格拉斯表示:“由于市场预期美联储将在货币紧缩方面采取更激进的举措,美元持续获得广泛支持。”

"The dollar has continued to have some broad-based support on the expectation that the Fed would be more aggressive in their monetary tightening," said Rory Glass, an FX dealer at Marex in London.

欧元小幅贬值至1.114美元,在周二跌幅超过0.5%的基础上进一步下跌。周三公布的数据显示,德国10月通胀率放缓至2.8%,印证了初步统计结果。

The euro depreciated slightly to $1.114, extending losses after a fall of more than 0.5 per cent on Tuesday. Data on Wednesday showed German inflation slowed to 2.8 per cent in October, confirming a preliminary reading.

英镑下跌0.2%至1.332美元,徘徊在两周以来的最低点附近,同时瑞士法郎走软0.4%,触及两周低点。

The pound fell 0.2 per cent to $1.332 and was pinned near its lowest point in two weeks, while the Swiss franc weakened 0.4 per cent to hit a two-week low.

日元微跌0.1%,盘中短暂触及七周低点,逼近跌破具有心理重要性的160日元兑1美元关口。

The Japanese yen eased 0.1 per cent, briefly hitting a seven-week low, close to falling below the psychologically important 160-per-dollar mark.

澳元是唯一兑美元上涨的G10货币,微涨0.1%,从七个月低点回升。

The Australian dollar was the only G10 currency to rise against the dollar, inching 0.1 per cent higher and coming off a seven-month low.

根据芝商所的美联储观察工具显示,美联储利率制定委员会的投票成员发出对高通胀感到不安的信号,巩固了市场对进一步加息的预期,交易员目前已完全将12月加息25个基点的预期计入定价。

Comments from voting members of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee signalling unease over high inflation have firmed up expectations for further rate hikes, with traders now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

根据伦敦证券交易所集团编制的数据,交易员甚至看到下个月加息50个基点的微小可能性,并计入了截至明年9月总计约75个基点的加息预期。

Traders even saw slim chances of a 50-bp rate hike next month and close to 75 bps worth of hiking by September next year, according to data compiled by LSEG.

在周二的数据公布后,一些经纪商修正了对美联储未来货币政策的预测,高盛目前预计美联储将在12月和3月加息,而德意志银行则预计将在12月、1月和3月加息。

Some brokerages revised their calls on future Fed monetary policy after Tuesday's data, with Goldman Sachs now expecting hikes in December and March, while Deutsche Bank expects hikes in December, January and March.

*由于利差扩大提振了美国货币,今年迄今为止,除澳元和挪威克朗外,多数发达市场货币兑美元均有所走弱。

Most developed-market currencies, barring the Australian dollar and the Norwegian crown, have weakened against the dollar so far this year as a widening interest-rate gap boosted the US currency.

一些分析师还将美元今年的走势归因于美以对伊朗战争期间的避险资金流入。

Some analysts also attributed the dollar's strength this year to safe-haven flows amid the US-Israeli war on Iran.

在加密货币方面,比特币下跌0.1%至73,672.8美元,徘徊在两个多月来的最低点附近。以太坊保持稳定,报2,055.5美元。

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was 0.1 per cent lower at $73,672.8, holding near its lowest in over two months. Ether held steady at $2,055.5.

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