Investing.com——周三英镑走低，欧元也出现下滑，原因是美国通胀高企以及美联储官员的鹰派言论将美元推向今年的高点附近。
Investing.com -- Sterling traded lower on Wednesday while the euro also slipped, as hot U.S. inflation and hawkish Federal Reserve comments pushed the dollar toward this year’s highs.
截至美东时间凌晨4点20分（格林尼治标准时间09点20分），英镑下跌0.16%，至1.3319美元；欧元下跌0.21%，至1.1142美元。
Sterling was down 0.16% at $1.3319, while the euro fell 0.21% to $1.1142, as of 04:20 ET (09:20 GMT).
荷兰国际集团全球市场主管克里斯·特纳表示：“随着美联储将利率推至限制性区间，美国收益率曲线出现熊市平坦化，这对美元兑商品货币通常是有利的。”
"Bearish flattening of the US yield curve as the Fed takes rates into restrictive territory is normally good for the dollar against activity currencies," said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING.
他补充道：“我们预计美元将保持强劲，并在未来几周内试探交易区间的高端。”
"We expect the dollar to stay strong and explore the top end of trading ranges over the coming weeks," he added.
特纳表示，美元指数可能很快重新测试102.85/103.00的“重大阻力位”。汇丰银行的数据显示，该指数周二为102.20。
Turner said the dollar index could soon retest "big resistance" at 102.85/103.00. HSBC data showed it at 102.20 on Tuesday.
美联储理事克里斯·沃勒在发表鹰派言论时表示，他将支持在12月9日加息25个基点，如果10月通胀连续第三个月保持高位，他也可能支持加息50个基点。随后公布的数据显示通胀高企，不过荷兰国际集团表示，对许多联邦公开市场委员会投票成员而言，加息50个基点的举动可能过于激进。
Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller, in hawkish remarks, said he would back a 25 bp rate hike on Dec. 9 and could support 50 bp if October inflation was hot for a third straight month. The data then came in hot, though ING said a 50 bp move may be too aggressive for many FOMC voters.
根据荷兰国际集团的数据，短期美国国债收益率上涨了约20个基点，2年期与10年期国债收益率曲线平坦化了7个基点，不过该机构的利率交易台指出，自沃勒发表讲话以来，2年期国债收益率已上涨13个基点。
According to ING, short-dated Treasury yields rose about 20 bp and the 2s10s curve flattened 7 bp, though ING’s rates desk put the 2-year rise at 13 bp since his remarks.
荷兰国际集团高级利率策略师米希尔·图克表示：“环比0.3%的核心CPI折年率计算出的年通胀率远高于3%。”他预计10年期国债收益率将重返5%。市场目前已完全消化了12月加息25个基点的预期。
"A core CPI reading of 0.3% MoM annualises to a yearly inflation number well above 3%," said Michiel Tukker, senior rates strategist at ING, who sees the 10-year yield back at 5%. Markets now price more than a full 25 bp hike in December.
图克预计将加息25个基点，且2027年不会进一步加息。周五公布的10月PPI是下一个催化剂。由于美国市场因退伍军人节休市，流动性可能会较为薄弱。
Tukker expects 25 bp and no further 2027 hikes. Friday’s October PPI is the next catalyst. U.S. markets are shut for Veterans Day, so liquidity may be thin.
英国央行副行长克莱尔·隆巴德利上周投了赞成票，与8比1的多数票一同决定将利率从3.75%上调至4%。她在周二由伦敦国王商学院以及货币、宏观与金融学会主办的一场央行会议上发表讲话时表示：“中期内持续通胀动力的条件正在成形。”
Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli, who voted last week with the 8-1 majority to raise rates to 4% from 3.75%, said in a speech at a central banking conference hosted by King’s Business School and the Money, Macro & Finance Society on Tuesday that “the conditions for persistent inflationary dynamics over the medium term are crystallising.”
当被问及她的投票意向时，她表示“不会排除12月加息或不加息的可能，也不会排除2月加息或不加息的可能”，并补充说每一次会议都是“充满变数的”。
Asked there about her voting intentions, she said she “wouldn’t rule December in or out, February in or out,” adding that each meeting was “live.”
她在同日发表的对《卫报》的另一篇采访中表示，她“不排除”12月加息的可能，但补充说：“同样，我目前还没有足够的信息。”
In a separate interview with the Guardian, also published on Tuesday, she said she “wouldn’t rule out” a December hike but added: “Equally, I don’t have enough information just yet.”
对于欧元，荷兰国际集团的特纳表示，1.1110（即3月25日至1月26日涨势的50%斐波那契回撤位）“对投机账户而言，可能是逢低做空欧元/美元仓位并锁定部分利润的良好水平”。他表示，“从这一支撑区域反弹的理由很弱。”荷兰国际集团预计欧洲央行将在12月17日跟随美联储加息至2.75%，但认为欧洲央行延长加息周期的可能性要小得多。该机构预计今日欧元/美元将在1.1140至1.1200之间交易。欧洲央行官员奇波隆、卡扎克斯、纳格尔和拉加德将发表讲话。
For the euro, ING’s Turner said 1.1110, the 50% retracement of the 25 March-26 Jan rally, is "probably a good level for speculative accounts to book some profits on short EUR/USD positions." He said "the case for a bounce from this support region is weak." ING expects the ECB to match a Fed hike with a move to 2.75% on Dec. 17, but sees a far weaker case for an extended ECB cycle. It expects EUR/USD to trade between 1.1140 and 1.1200 today. ECB speakers Cipollone, Kazaks, Nagel and Lagarde are due.
特纳预计，到年底前欧元/美元将“逼近1.10至1.15区间的低端”，尽管12月的季节性因素通常对欧元有利。
Turner expects EUR/USD to "press the lower end of a 1.10-1.15 range" into year-end, even though December seasonality is usually euro-positive.
美国价格数据走软（例如温和的PPI）将对这一观点构成挑战，有迹象表明欧洲央行面临的紧缩路径比美联储更长也是如此。作为参考，汇丰银行引用的LSEG共识预期显示，第四季度英镑/美元为1.3346，欧元/美元为1.1250。
Softer U.S. price data, such as a cool PPI, would challenge that view, as would signs the ECB faces a longer tightening path than the Fed. For reference, an LSEG consensus cited by HSBC puts Q4 GBP/USD at 1.3346 and EUR/USD at 1.1250.