英镑兑美元周三升至一周高点，因交易员正等待一份可能影响货币政策走向的美国通胀报告。
The British pound rose to a 1-week high against the dollar on Wednesday as traders awaited a US inflation report that could influence the monetary policy path.
截至格林尼治时间1023，英镑兑美元上涨0.1%，报1.3268，触及自10月7日以来的最高水平。该货币对欧元也升至16个月来的最高点，最新交易价为84.34便士，因油价上涨以及对法国公共财政的担忧拖累了欧元。
Sterling was up 0.1% at 1.3268 per dollar by 1023 GMT, touching its strongest level since October 7. The currency also rose to a fresh 16-month high against the euro and was last trading at 84.34 pence as higher oil prices and concerns about France's public finances weighed on the euro.
投资者正等待美国通胀数据的公布，该数据预计将显示9月份消费者价格因汽油和食品成本上升而激增。CME的FedWatch工具显示，金融市场认为美联储10月27日至28日的政策会议加息的概率约为22%。
Investors are awaiting the release of US inflation data, which is expected to show consumer prices surged in September, driven by rising gasoline and food costs. Financial markets assign a roughly 22% chance of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's October 27-28 policy meeting, CME's FedWatch Tool showed.
市场还关注英国政府即将发布的预算公告的进展。英国财政大臣约翰·希利预计将通过增税或削减开支而非更多借贷来为本月预算中的新举措买单，路透社《金融时报》周三报道称。
Focus was also on developments around the UK government's upcoming budget announcement. UK finance minister John Healey is expected to pay for new initiatives in this month’s budget with higher taxes or spending cuts rather than more borrowing, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday.
据《金融时报》报道，伊朗战争给英国公共财政带来了额外压力，使希利在遵守财政规则后可操作空间减少。该报道还称，财政大臣预计将把这一空间作为“应急基金”使用。Monex Europe的分析师在一份报告中表示：“我们继续认为，市场在10月28日预算之前低估了财政风险，10年期国债收益率高于5.4%，且可操作空间薄弱，因此我们维持对月末的看空偏见。”
The Iran war has put additional pressure on Britain's public finances and left Healey with less headroom after meeting fiscal rules, according to the FT report, which also said the finance minister is expected to let the headroom act as a "contingency fund." "We continue to think the market is under-pricing fiscal risk ahead of the Budget on October 28th, with 10-year gilts above 5.4% and headroom thin, so we retain our bearish bias into month-end," analysts at Monex Europe said in a note.
“今日，英镑将跟随美元对CPI的反应而走势；若数据符合预期，将支撑英镑向1.33水平上行，但我们认为应抛售英镑的涨势。” 国际货币基金组织支持英国的财政策略，敦促其“坚持当前方针”，而非加速赤字削减。尽管英国的债务水平低于大多数主要发达经济体，但英国政府借贷成本在七国集团中最高，且上周因全球债券抛售而升至1998年以来的最高水平。英国政府债券收益率当日有所回落。
"For today, cable will follow the dollar’s reaction to CPI; an in-line print supports a push towards 1.33, but we would look to fade sterling strength." The IMF backed Britain's fiscal strategy, urging it to "stay the course" rather than accelerate deficit reduction. Despite lower debt levels than most of the largest advanced economies, British government borrowing costs are the highest in the Group of Seven and last week touched their highest since 1998 as part of a global bond selloff. British government bond yields slipped on the day.
与此同时，英国央行首席经济学家胡韦尔·皮尔（Huw Pill）在过去几个月中曾投赞成票支持加息25个基点，他表示，对市场预期英国央行在未来一年内将四次上调借贷成本持更加怀疑的态度。
Meanwhile, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill, who has voted for a quarter-point interest rate hike in recent months, said he was more sceptical about market pricing of four increases to borrowing costs by the BoE over the next year.
投资者正在预计英国央行在11月会议上加息的可能性几乎为确定，随后将在2027年9月前再进行三次加息。英国将于周四公布对8月国内生产总值（GDP）数据的修正值。
Investors are pricing in a near certain chance of a BoE rate hike at its November meeting followed by three more increases by September 2027. Revisions to the UK's August GDP data will be released on Thursday.