随着交易员为下周的英国预算案进行布局，英镑对欧元汇率波动的对冲成本升至五个月来的最高水平。
The cost of hedging against swings in the pound versus the euro rose to the highest in five months as traders position for next week’s UK Budget.
投资者正聚焦于该国的财政前景以及财政大臣约翰·希利将如何平衡收支，特别是由于政府在今年上半年的借款额超过预测，进一步加剧了已经突破3万亿英镑（约合4万亿美元）的国库债务。
Investors are focused on the country’s fiscal outlook and how Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey will balance the books, particularly after the government borrowed more than forecast in the first half of the year, adding to a national debt pile that has topped £3 trillion ($4 trillion).
涵盖预算案宣布的欧元对英镑一周隐含波动率最高升至4.88%，创下5月以来的最高水平。
Euro-sterling one-week implied volatility, which now captures the Budget announcement, rose as high as 4.88%, the strongest since May.
期权市场情绪（以所谓的风险逆转指标来衡量）表明，尽管交易员支付更多费用以防范围绕财政声明的大幅波动，但市场仍预计未来一周英镑对欧元将出现温和走强。
Options sentiment, as depicted by so-called risk reversals, points to expectations for modest pound strength against the euro over the coming week, even as traders pay more to protect against larger moves around the fiscal statement.
鉴于驱动美元的因素较多，交易员经常利用欧元来表达英国本土的风险。不过这一次，由于欧元自身也面临财政和地缘政治压力，这种区别已不再那么清晰。
Traders often use the euro to express UK-specific risks, given the additional factors driving the dollar. That distinction is less clear this time as the euro faces its own fiscal and geopolitical pressures.
美国存管信托与清算公司的数据显示，交易员已经在跨越预算案期限的合约中对冲了英镑对美元下跌的风险，而针对欧元的头寸则更为错综复杂。
Data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation show traders have hedged against pound losses versus the dollar in contracts extending beyond the Budget, while positioning against the euro is more mixed.
事件溢价也体现在一周与三周波动率的价差中，目前该价差对短期波动率的倾斜程度达到了五个月来的最大值。尽管三周期权也涵盖了英国央行和欧洲央行的政策会议。
The event premium is also reflected in the spread between one-week and three-week volatility, which now favors the short-end by the most in five months. That is despite three-week options also capturing policy meetings by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.
尽管预算声明存在不确定性，但数据同时巩固了利率将走高的预期。在汽油和柴油成本飙升之后，英国9月通胀率触及11个月高点，这使得英国央行有望迎来三年多来的首次加息。
While there’s uncertainty around the budget statement, data is meanwhile reinforcing expectations for higher rates. UK inflation hit an 11-month high in September after a surge in petrol and diesel costs, leaving the BOE on track for its first interest-rate hike in more than three years.
对央行而言，核心问题在于财政声明是否会改变通胀前景。施罗德全球经济主管大卫·里斯表示：“预期虽然较低，但任何重大的财政刺激都将增加输入型通胀变得更为持久的风险，并迫使英国央行进入更长的紧缩周期。”
For the central bank, the key question is whether the fiscal statement alters the inflation outlook. “Expectations are low, but any significant fiscal boost would raise the risk that imported inflation becomes more persistent and force the BOE into a longer tightening cycle,” according to David Rees, head of global economics at Schroders.