美国国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥表示，华盛顿对伊朗的经济施压行动成效显著，因此无需恢复大规模军事行动。
United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that Washington’s economic pressure campaign against Iran is proving so effective that a resumption of large-scale military operations is unnecessary.
他的表态是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普政府在伊朗冲突问题上不断变化的一系列信息中的最新一条。这番言论也出现在特朗普所属的共和党于中期选举惨败之后，总统承认，败选的部分原因可能是公众反对这场战争。
His remarks are the latest in an often-evolving series of messages from US President Donald Trump’s administration on the conflict with Iran. They also come after a crushing midterm defeat for Trump’s Republican Party, which the president acknowledged was likely partly driven by public opposition to the war.
那么，鲁比奥的最新表态与其他政府官员的立场相比如何？这些表态又说明了冲突的什么状况？
So how do Rubio’s latest remarks compare with the positions of other administration officials, and what do they say about the state of the conflict? Rubio made his latest comments on Tuesday after meeting with foreign ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) forum in Paris.
鲁比奥是周二在巴黎与七国集团（G7）外长会晤后发表上述最新言论的。
He said he told G7 allies that “the economic campaign [against Iran] is so devastating that right now there is no need for major combat operations”.
他说，他告诉七国集团盟友，“（对伊朗的）经济行动破坏性如此之大，目前无需进行大规模作战行动”。
“We don’t need to conduct military strikes if we’re achieving the same objective through economic means and economic pressure. That’s not stalemate,” Rubio said.
鲁比奥说：“如果我们通过经济手段和经济压力就能实现同样的目标，就不需要发动军事打击。这并非僵局。”他补充说：“对伊朗的经济压力还会进一步加大。”
“The economic pressure on Iran is going to get even worse,” he added. Rubio also pushed G7 allies to help “protect shipping” around the embattled Strait of Hormuz, where he said US forces would stay.
鲁比奥还敦促七国集团盟友帮助“保护航运”，以保障陷入战事的霍尔木兹海峡周边通行，并表示美军将留在那里。
The secretary of state’s remarks were largely in line with Trump’s comments on Monday, when the president said further strikes against Iran were “quite unlikely”.
国务卿的表态与特朗普周一的言论基本一致，当时总统称进一步打击伊朗“相当不可能”。
Writing on his Truth Social platform, Trump said the US’s Gulf allies preferred a continuation of the “status quo”, referring to the US’s blockade of Iranian ports.
特朗普在其“真相社交”平台上发文称，美国的海湾盟友更希望维持“现状”，指的是美国对伊朗港口的封锁。特朗普还表示，结束冲突似乎出现了“积极势头”，但若情况有变，美国仍“严阵以待”。
Trump added that there appears to be “positive momentum” towards ending the conflict, but that the US remains “locked and loaded” should circumstances change. Vice President JD Vance, who has been more critical of the war and recently wrote a lengthy social media post blaming the Republican Party’s midterm defeat on the conflict, favours a deal with Iran, which Trump does not believe is possible right now, the Reuters news agency cited an informed source as saying.
路透社援引一名知情人士的话说，副总统JD·万斯对这场战争持更为批评的态度，最近还在社交媒体上发表长文，将共和党中期选举失利归咎于这场冲突。他倾向于与伊朗达成协议，而特朗普认为目前达成协议不可能。
Negotiations to end the US-Iran conflict have been largely stalled for months, as Iran continues to target vessels it claims are violating its conditions for transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the US ramps up sanctions against Iran and continues to blockade Iranian ports, with plans to block Iran’s land-based supply routes as well. Back in September, Iran proposed a seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart talks.
旨在结束美伊冲突的谈判已基本停滞数月，伊朗继续针对其声称违反霍尔木兹海峡通行条件的船只，美国则加大了对伊朗的制裁，并继续封锁伊朗港口，还计划封锁伊朗的陆上补给路线。
Tehran has since said that timeline could be brought down to two days.
早在9月，伊朗就提出了一项为期七天的计划，以重新开放霍尔木兹海峡并重启谈判。德黑兰此后表示，这一时间表可以缩短至两天。德黑兰对美国的要求包括：解除华盛顿在6月谅解备忘录破裂后实施的制裁、减少美国在该地区的军事存在、恢复石油豁免以及解冻伊朗被冻结的资金。
Tehran’s demands for the US include lifting sanctions Washington imposed after the collapse of a June memorandum of understanding (MoU), reducing the US military presence in the region, reinstating oil waivers and releasing frozen Iranian funds. Trump, torn between restarting an unpopular war or pushing harder for a deal with Tehran, has for now settled on a middle ground: doubling down on the pressure campaign against Iran while avoiding a return to full-scale military action, according to officials quoted by Axios. That strategy is backed by several key administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and CIA Director John Ratcliffe, as well as Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, Axios cited US officials as saying.
据Axios援引官员的话说，特朗普在重启一场不受欢迎的战争与加大对德黑兰施压以达成协议之间左右为难，目前选择了中间路线：加大对伊朗的压力攻势，同时避免重回全面军事行动。
However, several US allies in the region, including Pakistan, Iraq and Turkiye, are concerned that a drawn-out US pressure campaign against Iran could hurt their own business interests, said one official cited by the news outlet.
Axios援引美国官员的话说，这一策略得到了几位政府关键官员的支持，包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特、中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫，以及特朗普的女婿贾里德·库什纳。
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said that a long-term US policy of intensive sanctions and a blockade against Iran would only prolong an “unstable status quo” that would eventually escalate into more military confrontation.
然而，该新闻机构援引一名官员的话说，美国在该地区的几个盟友，包括巴基斯坦、伊拉克和土耳其，担心美国对伊朗旷日持久的施压行动可能损害它们自身的商业利益。
However, he said one “walk-away” option for Trump could be to quietly relax the sanctions and blockade while maintaining them “on paper”.
昆西治国方略研究所执行副总裁特里塔·帕西表示，美国长期奉行严厉制裁和封锁伊朗的政策，只会让“不稳定的现状”持续下去，最终升级为更多军事对抗。
In this case, “Trump walks away and claims to retain the blockade and sanctions infrastructure, but in reality, allows it to imperceptibly wither away,” Parsi told Al Jazeera.
不过他说，特朗普还有一种“抽身”选项，那就是悄悄放松制裁和封锁，同时“在纸面上”保留这些措施。
“The blockade begins to loosen, sanctions enforcement begins to decay, and slowly but surely, Asian and Middle Eastern countries begin trading with and investing in Iran.”
帕西对半岛电视台表示，在这种情况下，“特朗普抽身而退，声称保留了封锁和制裁体系，但实际上任由其不知不觉地萎缩。封锁开始松动，制裁执行开始松懈，亚洲和中东国家开始缓慢但稳步地与伊朗开展贸易和投资。”帕西说：“一种新的平衡随之出现：制裁执行力度足够强，让美国可以声称限制措施仍然有效；但又足够弱，使德黑兰无法挑战这一新现状。”分析人士认为确实如此。
“A new equilibrium emerges in which sanctions enforcement is strong enough for the US to claim the restrictions are still in place, yet weak enough to prevent Tehran from challenging the new status quo,” Parsi said. Yes, according to analysts.
华盛顿特区国际政策中心高级非常驻研究员内加尔·莫尔塔扎维表示，共和党在选举中惨败“大幅提高了进一步升级冲突的政治代价”，并赋予民主党人更强的授权去挑战这场战争。
Negar Mortazavi, senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington, DC, said the Republicans’ resounding election defeat “dramatically raised the political cost of more escalation” and gave the Democrats a stronger mandate to challenge the war.
莫尔塔扎维对半岛电视台表示：“如果民主党人团结起来，积极运用他们的新权力，就能让特朗普越来越难以继续这场战争，迫使他结束战争。”
“If Democrats unite and use their new power aggressively, they can make it increasingly difficult for Trump to continue the war, pressuring him to end it,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera.
她补充说：“外交突破并无保证，但升级冲突的政治和战略代价不断上升，使得再打一轮战争的可能性降低。”
“A diplomatic breakthrough is not guaranteed, but the political and strategic costs of escalation keep growing, making another round of war less likely,” she added.
特朗普和万斯都承认，伊朗战争是共和党落败的部分原因。特朗普称，选民还没有准备好接受汽油价格上涨。
Both Trump and Vance have acknowledged that the Iran war was partly to blame for the Republicans’ loss, with Trump saying voters were not ready for petrol prices to rise. According to a poll by Reuters/Ipsos completed on Monday, 71 percent of Americans – including 93 percent of Democrats and 51 percent of Republicans – favour congressional legislation that would halt the Iran war.
路透社/益普索周一完成的一项民调显示，71%的美国人——包括93%的民主党人和51%的共和党人——支持国会通过立法来停止伊朗战争。
Iranian officials have upped their rhetoric even as Washington appears to be moving away from military escalation.
尽管华盛顿似乎正从军事升级中抽身，伊朗官员却加大了言辞力度。
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Tuesday said the war will “not end either through military means or by increasing sanctions”, but only through “using the language of respect”.
伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐周二表示，这场战争“既不会通过军事手段、也不会通过加大制裁来结束”，而只能通过“使用尊重的语言”来结束。
In comments carried by Iran’s IRNA news agency, he urged the US “to act on Iran’s demands and conditions”, adding that Trump “should have realised much earlier that he has not achieved, and will not achieve, any of his goals in the war with Iran”.
在伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社刊载的讲话中，他敦促美国“对伊朗的要求和条件采取行动”，并补充说，特朗普“早就应该意识到，他在与伊朗的战争中未能实现、也永远不会实现他的任何目标”。
Iran’s top security chief Mohsen Rezaei, in a social media post on Monday, said the US government had been “wrecked” by the war and that it was time for it to “surrender” to Iran’s demands.
伊朗最高安全官员穆赫辛·雷扎伊周一在社交媒体发帖称，美国政府已被这场战争“搞垮”，现在是它向伊朗的要求“投降”的时候了。
Al Jazeera’s Mohamed Vall, reporting from Tehran, noted that Iran’s language has become “more confident than ever before”.
半岛电视台的穆罕默德·瓦尔在德黑兰报道时指出，伊朗的措辞变得“比以往任何时候都更加自信”。
“They’re trying to convey to the public, internally, and also to the Americans, that there is no way this war can be declared over without responding to those conditions presented by Iran during the negotiations,” said Vall.
瓦尔说：“他们试图向国内公众、也向美国人传达，如果不回应伊朗在谈判中提出的那些条件，这场战争就不可能被宣布结束。”各方传出的信息并不一致。
There are mixed messages.
卡塔尔外交部周二表示，多哈正在其持续的调解努力中“不懈工作”，并已收到双方的积极回应。
The Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Tuesday said that Doha is “working tirelessly” in its ongoing mediation efforts, and has received positive reactions from both sides.
特朗普前一天在白宫接待卡塔尔首相后，也谈到“走向结束这场冲突的势头”，并补充说“伊朗正在与我们对话，而且他们谈得非常客气”。
Trump, the day before, after hosting Qatar’s prime minister at the White House, also spoke of “momentum towards the end of this conflict”, adding that “Iran is talking to us, and they’re talking very politely”.
卢比奥则表示，美国仍然“对外交持开放态度”，但称伊朗目前的要求“完全不切实际”。
Rubio, for his part, said the US remains “open to diplomacy”, but called Iran’s current demands “totally unrealistic”.
他说：“我们预计这种情况可能会改变——如果改变了，我们已做好外交准备。”
“We expect that could change – and if it does, we’re prepared for diplomacy,” he said.
与此同时，伊朗官员对最新的调解报道表现出更多怀疑，坚持要求美国接受伊朗的条件。
Iranian officials, meanwhile, have appeared more sceptical of the latest reports of mediation, insisting that the US must accept their demands.
礼萨伊周二表示，德黑兰与华盛顿之间没有进行任何谈判，伊朗将通过打击“远距离”的美国基地，对任何新的美国袭击进行报复。他还表示，伊朗不会让任何浓缩核材料离开该国，排除了美国在潜在核谈判中寻求的一项让步。
Rezaei on Tuesday said there were no negotiations taking place between Tehran and Washington and that Iran would retaliate against any new US attack by targeting US bases “far away”. He also said Iran would not let any of its enriched nuclear material leave the country, ruling out a concession the US has sought in potential nuclear talks.
在一条社交媒体帖子中，礼萨伊进一步指责美国“制造关于虚构谈判的假新闻”。
In a social media post, Rezaei went on to accuse the US of “manufacturing FAKE NEWS about imaginary talks”.
对伊朗的战争已经摧毁了美国政府。但华盛顿像绝望的赌徒一样挣扎。收手吧。停止制造关于虚构谈判的假新闻。停止否认西亚新秩序。是时候向伊朗反复提出的七个条件投降了。2026年11月9日
The war on Iran has already wrecked the US government. But Washington flails like a desperate gambler. FOLD YOUR HAND. STOP manufacturing FAKE NEWS about imaginary talks. Stop denying the West Asian NEW ORDER. Time to SURRENDER to the seven conditions Iran has repeatedly set out. November 9, 2026