国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥周二在巴黎与七国集团（G7）同僚会面时，他告诉他们，特朗普总统曾考虑恢复与伊朗的战争，或达成一项协议——但选择了第三种选择：扼杀伊朗政权，三位与会者向Axios透露。
When Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with his G7 counterparts in Paris on Tuesday, he told them that President Trump had considered resuming the war with Iran or cutting a deal — but chose a third option: strangling the Iranian regime, three people who attended the meeting told Axios.
为何重要：伊朗战争已成为特朗普第二任期的政治包袱，让共和党人在中期选举中付出了惨重代价。数月来，特朗普总统在威胁要摧毁伊朗和预测伊朗将屈服、给他想要的协议之间反复摇摆。
Why it matters: The Iran war has become a political albatross in Trump's second term, costing Republicans dearly in the midterms. For months, the president has alternated between threatening to obliterate Iran and predicting it will capitulate and give him the deal he wants.
- “他一直在寻找解决方案，但不确定哪条路最好，”一位亲近特朗普的美国官员说。
• "He's been searching for the solution, but he wasn't sure what's the best way to go," a U.S. official close to Trump said.
- 关于应采取哪条路线的争论，导致政府高层内部几个派系之间产生矛盾。每个派系都得到中东美国盟友的支持——具体来说，以色列支持重新打击，而大多数海湾国家反对打击。
• This debate over which course to follow has led to strife between several factions within the top echelon of the administration. Each faction had the support of U.S. allies in the Middle East — namely Israel favoring renewed strikes and most Gulf countries opposing them. Driving the news:
推动新闻：特朗普周一与卡塔尔首相谢赫·穆罕默德·本·阿卜杜勒拉赫曼·阿勒萨尼会面后表示，新一轮针对伊朗的打击“可能性不大”且“似乎没有必要”。• 特朗普表示，他倾向于继续对伊朗实施经济打击和海上封锁，此外还要开展一项名为“铁门”的新行动，以切断伊朗用于运送先进武器和其他技术的陆路通道。
After meeting with the Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani on Monday, Trump said that a new round of strikes against Iran is "quite unlikely" and "doesn't seem to be necessary." • Trump said he instead favors continuing the economic crackdown and naval blockade against Iran, in addition to a new operation dubbed "Iron Gate" to cut off land routes that Iran uses to move advanced weaponry and other technology. Behind the scenes:
幕后：鲁比奥周二在巴黎与七国集团国家外长的闭门会议上阐述了美国的伊朗政策。
Rubio explained the U.S. Iran policy in a closed meeting on Tuesday with the foreign ministers of the G7 countries in Paris. • "The President doesn't just have two options.
- “总统不只有两个选择。不只是回到战争或签署一份荒谬的和平协议。我们不会达成一个愚蠢的协议。我们拥有的第三个选择是继续我们现在所做的事，”鲁比奥说，根据三位在场人士的说法。
It's not just return to war or sign a ridiculous peace deal. We won't do a stupid deal. The third option we have is to continue to do what we do now," Rubio said, according to three people in the room.
- 鲁比奥接着说，美国正在给伊朗经济造成毁灭性代价，使其更难为恐怖组织提供资金或重建军队。而且没有结束日期。
• Rubio went on to say that the U.S. is imposing devastating costs on Iran's economy, making it harder for it to fund terrorist organizations or rebuild its military. And there's no end date.
- “总统并非处于虚假的时间压力之下，伊朗人正在给自身经济造成重大损害，”鲁比奥说。
• "The President is not under false time pressure, the Iranians are inflicting major damage on their own economy," Rubio said.
The intrigue:美国官员表示，鲁比奥是特朗普国家安全团队中推动“绞杀战略”的成员之一，其他人还包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特、中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫以及特朗普的顾问兼女婿贾里德·库什纳。
The intrigue: U.S. officials say that Rubio was among the members of Trump's national security team who pushed for the strangulation strategy, along with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Jared Kushner, Trump's adviser and son-in-law.
- 该组织反对恢复战争，不相信伊朗当前的立场能达成符合美国利益的协议，并为第三种选择进行游说。
• That group opposed the resumption of war, didn't believe Iran's current positions could lead to a deal that serves U.S. interests and lobbied for the third option.
State of play:鲁比奥对外交突破深表怀疑。
State of play: Rubio is deeply skeptical of a diplomatic breakthrough.
- “伊朗当然想要达成协议。问题是他们继续提出的条件荒谬至极。比如，他们现在甚至不认真，”他在七国集团会晤后对记者说。
• "Iran would love a deal. The problem is the conditions they continue to place are absurd. Like, they're not even serious right now," he told reporters after the G7 meeting.
- 他说，如果伊朗人感受到更多经济痛苦，情况可能会改变。“最终你得吃饭，”他说。“最终，经济现实会渗透进最激进的疯子的头脑。所以我认为，随着时间的推移，这会产生影响。”
• That could change if the Iranians feel more economic pain, he said. "Eventually you have to eat," he said. "Eventually the economic realities penetrate the skull of even the most radical lunatic. So I think as time goes on that will have an impact."
Yes, but:一名美国官员表示，几个美国盟友——例如土耳其、伊拉克和巴基斯坦——对特朗普延长经济挤压的意图感到担忧。
Yes, but: Several U.S. allies — such as Turkey, Iraq and Pakistan — are concerned about Trump's intention to prolong the economic squeeze, a U.S. official said.
- 该人士表示，这些盟友担心，美国施压让他们停止与伊朗开展业务——包括停止航班和关闭边境——会在其本国造成不稳定。
• The person said those allies worry that U.S. pressure on them to stop doing business with Iran — including by stopping flights and closing their borders — will create instability in their own countries. The other side:
The other side:特朗普选择的路线与伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊给其政府和伊斯兰革命卫队的指令完全相悖。
The course Trump has chosen is completely at odds with the directive Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei gave his government and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
- 哈梅内伊下令结束“不战不和”的现状，要求战争得出明确结论。伊朗民选领导层将此解读为谈判达成协议的绿灯。
• Khamenei ordered an end to the "no war, no deal" status quo, demanding a clear conclusion to the war. Iran's civilian leadership interpreted this as a green light to negotiate a deal.
- 但如果当前僵局持续，对伊朗的压力加剧，伊朗革命卫队可能将其视为在该地区发动更激进攻击的绿灯，以试图打破现状。
• But if the current stalemate continues and pressure on Iran intensifies, the IRGC could see it as a green light for more aggressive attacks in the region in an attempt to break the status quo.
- “伊朗无意无限期地简单接受这种情况，”大西洋委员会伊朗问题专家丹尼·西特里诺维奇说。“德黑兰可能会认为，增加华盛顿及其地区伙伴的经济和安全成本，是迫使美国改变政策的唯一途径。”
• "Iran has no intention of simply accepting this situation indefinitely," said Danny Citrinowicz, an expert on Iran at the Atlantic Council. "Tehran may conclude that increasing the economic and security costs for Washington and its regional partners is the only way to force a change in American policy."
- 他补充说：“危险显而易见：伊朗升级局势，华盛顿做出回应，双方都发现自己陷入了另一场军事对抗，而这场对抗未必是双方所想要的。”What to卡塔尔首相向七国集团会议介绍了调解努力以及他前一天与特朗普的谈话。
• He added: "The danger is obvious: Iran escalates, Washington responds, and both sides find themselves in another military confrontation that neither necessarily wanted." What to Qatar's prime minister briefed the G7 meeting on mediation efforts and his conversation with Trump the previous day.
- 萨尼表示，他与特朗普会面后认为，外交努力有更多喘息空间。
• Al Thani said he came away from his meeting with Trump believing there's more breathing room for diplomatic efforts.
- 症结仍在于哪一方将首先采取降级措施，以及各方同意采取哪些建立信任措施。
• The sticking points remain which side will take the first step toward de-escalating and which confidence-building measures the parties will agree to take.
- 卡塔尔首相表示，他希望引入中国和欧洲国家作为担保方，以帮助缓解伊朗的深层疑虑，即担心特朗普会违反协议并在几个月后重启战争。
• The Qatari prime minister said he wants to bring in China and European countries as guarantors, to help ease deep Iranian suspicions that Trump will break the agreement and resume the war in a few months.