韩国正加紧外交努力，因美国国会由民主党掌控，其核动力潜艇计划面临新障碍。
South Korea is ramping up diplomatic efforts as fresh hurdles loom for its nuclear-powered submarine ambitions following a Democratic Party takeover of the US Congress.
首尔防卫事业厅上周批准了潜艇的初步计划，设计工作定于明年启动，初始预算为966亿韩元（约合7250万美元），交付目标定在2030年代末或更晚。
Seoul’s Defence Acquisition Programme Administration last week approved preliminary plans for the submarines, with design work set to begin next year under an initial budget of 96.6 billion won (US$72.5 million) and delivery targeted for the late 2030s or beyond.
去年10月，美国总统特朗普在与韩国总统李在明的峰会上认可了该潜艇计划——作为一项更广泛协议的一部分，该协议包括首尔承诺向美国投资3500亿美元——但获得美国核燃料仍是主要绊脚石。
While US President Donald Trump endorsed the submarine plans at a summit with President Lee Jae Myung in October last year – as part of a broader deal that included Seoul’s pledge to invest US$350 billion in the United States – securing US nuclear fuel remains a major stumbling block.
根据2015年美韩《第123条核合作协议》，严禁将核材料用于军事用途。解除这些限制或转让海军核动力燃料需要单独的双边协议，并须根据美国《原子能法》接受国会监督——这一过程因民主党在中期选举中获胜而变得更加复杂。
Under the 2015 US-South Korea Section 123 Agreement on nuclear cooperation, the use of nuclear material for military applications is strictly prohibited. Lifting those restrictions or transferring naval nuclear propulsion fuel requires a separate bilateral agreement and congressional oversight under the US Atomic Energy Act – a process complicated by the Democrats’ midterm election victory.
分析人士对该项目前景看法不一。一些人警告，民主党议员坚决反对核扩散，可能会延误或使该计划脱轨——尤其是在特朗普政治地位削弱的情况下；另一些人则认为，潜艇将增强美国地区安全，这为首尔寻求两党支持并利用其投资承诺提供了依据。
Analysts are divided over the project’s prospects. While some warn that Democratic lawmakers’ staunch opposition to nuclear proliferation could delay or derail the programme – particularly with Trump politically weakened – others argue the submarines would strengthen US regional security, giving Seoul grounds to seek bipartisan support and leverage its investment pledges.
梨花女子大学政治学教授朴元坤（Park Won-gon）表示，一些民主党议员在核不扩散问题上持“非常强硬立场”——1月份，由参议院核武器与军控工作组联合主席爱德华·马基和杰夫·默克利率领的四名民主党参议员曾敦促特朗普对韩国维持严格管控，这凸显了这一立场。
Park Won-gon, a political science professor at Ewha Womans University, said some Democratic lawmakers held “a very hardline stance” on nuclear non-proliferation – highlighted in January when four Democratic senators, led by Senate Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control Working Group co-chairs Edward Markey and Jeff Merkley, urged Trump to maintain strict controls on South Korea.
“民主党即将在众议院和参议院均占据多数，他们很可能会对核动力潜艇项目提出异议，制造另一道障碍，”朴元坤说。
“With the Democrats set to hold the majority in both the House and the Senate, they are likely to raise objections to the nuclear-powered submarine project, creating another hurdle,” Park said.
“最终，很大程度上将取决于特朗普对这些倡议有多大兴趣，以及他愿意以多大力度推动它们向前发展，”朴元坤说，并警告称，一个在政治上被削弱、面临复杂国内挑战的特朗普可能导致“相当大的延误和困难”。
“Ultimately, much will depend on how interested Trump is in these initiatives and how strongly he is willing to push them forward,” Park said, warning that a politically weakened Trump facing complicated domestic challenges could lead to “considerable delays and difficulties”.
除了潜艇项目，首尔和华盛顿在移交韩军战时作战指挥权（OPCON）问题上也存在分歧。首尔视移交为紧迫的政治优先事项，而华盛顿则坚持严格基于条件的技术性做法。
Beyond the submarine programme, Seoul and Washington also differ over transferring wartime operational control (OPCON) of South Korean troops. Seoul views the transfer as an urgent political priority, whereas Washington has maintained a strictly conditions-based technical approach.
“这些项目只有在特朗普任内才有可能切实推进。即使由另一位共和党人继任，前景也可能变得困难得多，”朴元坤补充道。“换句话说，韩国现在发现自己处于这样一个位置：必须在特朗普剩余两年任期内为这些项目争取最终的绿灯。”韩国执政党共同民主党议员金炳柱，同时担任总统国家防卫政策特别顾问，承认美国民主党的选举胜利因其对核扩散的“极度谨慎”而制造了“一些额外障碍”，但对该项目能获得两党支持表示乐观。
“These are projects that could only realistically move forward under Trump. Even if another Republican were to succeed him, the prospects could become much more difficult,” Park added. “In other words, South Korea now finds itself in a position where it has to secure a final greenlight for these projects within the remaining two years of Trump’s term.”Kim Byung-joo, a lawmaker from South Korea’s ruling Democratic Party who serves as a special adviser to the president on national defence policy, acknowledged that the US Democrats’ electoral victory had created “some additional hurdles” given their “extreme caution” over nuclear proliferation, but expressed optimism that the programme could win bipartisan support.
“既然获得核动力潜艇将极大增强韩国的国防能力——从而也符合美国的安全利益——我认为美国两党都会看到其中的价值，”他在韩国Channel A电视台上表示。
“Since the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines would dramatically enhance South Korea’s defence capabilities – thereby also serving US security interests – I believe both parties in the US would see the value in it,” he said on South Korean broadcaster Channel A.
然而，前驻韩美国代理大使尹朱永周二表示，他预计在首尔3500亿美元投资承诺及其他贸易争端摩擦下，多个已陷入停滞的双边议题将进展缓慢。
Former acting US ambassador to South Korea Joseph Yun, however, said on Tuesday that he expected slow progress on several bilateral issues already stalled amid friction over Seoul’s US$350 billion investment pledge and other trade disputes.
“华盛顿并未达成共识，认为韩国应该拥有铀浓缩或核潜艇，所以我认为这些事情会非常困难，”尹在一个论坛上表示。
“There is no consensus in Washington that Korea ought to have enrichment or nuclear submarines, so those things I find will be very difficult,” Yun said at a forum.
美国专家还警告说，民主党在中期选举中取得的大胜将使复杂化首尔的雄心。
US experts also warned that the Democrats’ sweeping midterm gains would complicate Seoul’s ambitions.
“民主党可能比共和党更坚持不扩散规范，这可能会给李在核动力潜艇获取之路上制造障碍，”布鲁金斯学会高级研究员安德鲁·叶被韩联社引述说。
“Democrats may hold on to non-proliferation norms more strongly than Republicans, which may create obstacles to Lee’s path to acquire nuclear-powered subs,” Andrew Yeo, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, was quoted as saying by Yonhap News Agency.
叶补充说，尽管特朗普和美国国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯比其他美国政策制定者更倾向于该时间表，但民主党控制可能会加强对首尔在2030年或更早完成作战控制权移交目标的抵制。
Yeo added that Democratic control could stiffen resistance to Seoul’s target of completing the OPCON transfer by 2030 or earlier, despite Trump and US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth appearing more open to that timeline than other US policymakers.
哈德逊研究所亚太安全问题主席帕特里克·克罗宁也警告说，潜艇计划可能在国会山搁浅。
Patrick Cronin, chair for Asia-Pacific security at the Hudson Institute, also warned that the submarine plans could stall on Capitol Hill.
“雄心勃勃的承诺，例如核动力潜艇合作，可能会面临延误或阻挠，即使对核心联盟承诺（包括延伸威慑）的长期两党支持仍然相对坚韧，”克罗宁说。
“Ambitious commitments, such as cooperation on nuclear-powered submarines, could face delays or obstruction, even as long-standing bipartisan support for core alliance commitments, including extended deterrence, remains comparatively resilient,” Cronin said.
与此同时，汉阳大学公共政策研究生院教授文根植指出，韩国国防部最近提出的一项法案放弃发展核武器，作为向华盛顿提供安抚的一部分努力。
Meanwhile, Moon Keun-sik, a professor at Hanyang University’s Graduate School of Public Affairs, pointed to a recent bill introduced by South Korea’s Defence Ministry renouncing the development of nuclear weapons as part of an effort to reassure Washington.
“国会两党普遍认为，韩国核潜艇对美国安全也是必要的，尽管在程序事项上会有一些延误，因为民主党希望不遗余力，”文说。
“There is a broad consensus across the aisles in Congress that South Korean nuclear submarines are also necessary for US security, although there would be some delays in procedural matters as the Democrats want to leave no stones unturned,” Moon said.
“如果华盛顿继续拖延，韩国也有自己的筹码可以依靠——合作振兴美国造船业，提供高端半导体和电池，”他补充说。
“If Washington keeps dragging its feet, South Korea also has its own leverage to rely on – cooperation in rejuvenating the American shipbuilding industry, supplying high-end semiconductors and batteries,” he added.
庆南大学远东研究所研究员杜镇浩表示，首尔需要加大努力，通过将潜艇和战时作战控制权计划与地区威慑联系起来，说服双方。
Doo Jin-ho, a research fellow at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies, said Seoul needed to step up efforts to persuade both parties by linking the submarine and OPCON plans to regional deterrence.
在此背景下，韩国驻美国大使姜京和周三在《华盛顿邮报》撰文表示，去年特朗普—李在明协议制定了“我们联盟下一阶段的路线图”——以首尔承诺投资3500亿美元（其中2000亿美元用于能源和高科技产业，1500亿美元用于造船业）以及美国支持韩国核动力潜艇计划和民用核能合作为基础。
Against this backdrop, South Korean Ambassador to the United States Kang Kyung-wha wrote in The Washington Post on Wednesday that last year’s Trump-Lee agreement had set out “a road map for the next stage of our alliance” – anchored by Seoul’s US$350 billion investment pledge (US$200 billion in energy and hi-tech industries and US$150 billion in shipbuilding) alongside US support for South Korea’s nuclear-powered submarine plans and civilian nuclear energy cooperation.
“两方面的进展都将进一步加强我们的安全伙伴关系，”姜京和写道。
“Progress in both would further strengthen our security partnership,” Kang wrote.