随着总统竞选人本周齐聚丹佛，参加民主党中期选举后首次大型聚会，会场上最抢手的人并非候选人本人，而是幕僚。
As presidential contenders gather in Denver this week for Democrats’ first big meeting since the midterms, the most sought-after people working the rooms won’t be the candidates. They’ll be the staffers.
2028年民主党总统初选的首场实战将围绕竞选操盘手展开，因为民主党正为竞选活动、国会山各办公室以及上下票各层级竞选中普遍存在的政治人才短缺做准备。
The first real fight of the 2028 Democratic presidential primary will be over campaign operatives, as Democrats prepare for a widespread shortage of political talent in races up and down the ballot and in offices across Capitol Hill.
需求来自四面八方。总统候选人阵容可能多达二十余人，每人大概率都会有一个附属的超级政治行动委员会（超级筹委会），且必须将其幕僚与竞选团队严格隔离。参议院选举地图让民主党处于进攻态势。此外，数十名当选众议员已在为连任做准备。
The demand is coming from every direction. There is a presidential field that could reach two dozen candidates, each likely with an ancillary super PAC that must firewall its staff off from the campaign., There’s a Senate map that puts Democrats on offense. And there are dozens of House members-elect who are already preparing for reelection.
这一切让渴望上位的年轻民主党操盘手获得了他们罕见拥有的东西：筹码。
All of that has handed hungry young Democratic operatives something they rarely have: leverage.
“政治顾问不够用，连一半竞选团队都凑不齐，”一位二十多岁的民主党顾问说，受访者均因商业敏感性要求匿名。“对擅长此道的幕僚来说，这是买方市场。”同龄段的一位民主党媒体顾问表示赞同：“国会山幕僚不够，竞选总管不够，竞选幕僚也不够。”
“There are not enough political consultants for half of the campaigns,” said a 20-something Democratic consultant, who, like others interviewed for this story, requested anonymity out of business sensitivities . “It is a buyer’s market for staffers who are good at this.”A Democratic media consultant in the same age bracket concurred: “There is not enough Hill staff, there aren’t enough chiefs, there isn’t enough campaign staff,” the consultant said.
凡有实绩者皆供不应求。上周中期选举大胜后，民主党人描述称，在国会山新议员培训周期间，各方陷入疯狂抢人大战。与此同时，竞选顾问已在为未来两年的薪酬包设定条款，条件是承诺全周期服务。
Anyone with a proven record is in demand. After last week’s midterm landslide, Democrats describe a frantic dash to hire staff amid Capitol Hill’s orientation week. Meanwhile, campaign consultants are already setting the terms of their pay packages for the next two years, with the condition they commit for the full cycle.
一些资历较深的总统潜在候选人早已组建起初具规模的竞选班底，筹款人、传播幕僚和全能型顾问已进入其正式团队或其政治行动委员会的薪资名单。
Some of the more-established presidential aspirants long ago assembled their nascent campaign teams of fundraisers, communications staffers and all-around consiglieris are already on their official staffs or their political action committees’ payrolls.
“拥有良好的文化氛围和足够的资金来吸引人才至关重要，”这位年轻的媒体顾问说。“像[伊利诺伊州州长J.B.]普里茨克和[佐治亚州联邦参议员乔恩]奥索夫这样的人，他们组建了庞大的2026年竞选团队，并证明自己是好老板，给予应有的报酬，他们起步就非常、非常稳健，拥有巨大优势。”资深顾问仍然是每一位总统竞选人的首选目标，因为在没有明显领跑者的情况下，他们能为竞选带来即时的公信力。
“Having the culture and the money for talent is huge,” said the young media consultant. “People like [Illinois Gov. J.B.] Pritzker and [Georgia U.S. Sen. Jon] Ossoff who hired massive 2026 campaign teams and proved to be good bosses who pay their worth, start on a really, really strong foot and have a big advantage.”Seasoned consultants remain top draws for every presidential aspirant because they bring instant credibility to a field without a clear front-runner.
争夺资深顾问很可能是检验候选人生存能力最明显的试金石，这是一场争夺拥有庞大人脉名录、掌握媒体联系人和党内权力掮客的顾问的战斗。
The elder consultant draft may well be the most obvious test of candidate viability, a battle for advisers with fat rolodexes jammed with media contacts and party powerbrokers.
一代人以前，这个赛前阶段被称为“施拉姆初选”，当时顶尖的民主党候选人竞相聘请罗伯特·施拉姆，他是已故参议员爱德华·M·肯尼迪、前副总统阿尔·戈尔和前参议员约翰·克里总统竞选活动的战略师。
A generation ago, this pre-season phase was known as “the Shrum primary,” when top Democratic candidates competed to hire Robert Shrum, a strategist for the presidential campaigns of the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, former Vice President Al Gore and former Sen. John Kerry.
然而，如今许多最知名的顾问手握多个客户，而这些客户可能会相互竞争。就像施拉姆当年一样，他们将不得不选择单一客户以避免利益冲突。这几乎注定会让一些候选人无人问津。
However, many of today’s most prominent consultants have multiple clients who may run against each other. Like Shrum before them, they will have to pick a single client to avoid conflicts of interest. That is all but certain to leave some candidates out in the cold.
最激烈的争夺战预计将发生在早期初选州的实地人力上：南卡罗来纳州、内华达州、新罕布什尔州、新墨西哥州、密歇根州和弗吉尼亚州。民主党人士表示，今年参与过全州范围和下层选票竞选的工作人员将受到候选人的关注，特别是密歇根州和内华达州的竞选团队。但几位民主党竞选消息人士称，最抢手的顾问将是参议员当选人安妮·安德鲁斯竞选团队的成员，南卡罗来纳州将在2028年举行民主党首个初选。
The most cutthroat fight of all is expected to be for on-the-ground manpower in the early primary states: South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan and Virginia. Democrats say staffers who worked on statewide and downballot campaigns this year will get a look from candidates, particularly campaigns in Michigan and Nevada. But the most in-demand advisers, several Democratic campaign sources said, will be the team that worked on Sen.-elect Annie Andrews’ campaign in South Carolina, which will hold Democrats’ first-in-the-nation primary in 2028.
尽管如此，一些顾问仍会选择放弃。鲜有总统竞选能持续足够长的时间，让竞选团队支付民调、电视广告和直邮佣金，而这些佣金构成了顾问的生计来源。此外，政治供应商往往对现有的下层选票客户极其忠诚，一些人担心总统竞选的需求可能会使他们的业务组合不堪重负。预计总统竞选将比以往任何时候都更早启动，这也可能考验顾问群体的耐力和精力。
Still, some consultants will take a pass. Few presidential campaigns last long enough for the campaign to pay the polling, television and direct mail commissions that make for a consultants’ livelihood. Moreover, political vendors tend to be fiercely loyal to their current down-ballot clients, and some worry that the demands of a presidential campaign could overload their portfolios. The anticipated earlier-than-ever launch of presidential campaigns could also test the endurance and bandwidth of the consultant class.
“人们长期处于高负荷工作状态，”民主党直邮顾问阿希姆·伯格曼说。“我的一些同事可能会感到职业倦怠。”而在尚未建立客户名单或政治忠诚度、渴望在政坛闯出名堂的年轻操盘手中，情绪则截然不同。
“People are working at a high capacity for longer,” said Achim Bergman, a Democratic direct mail consultant. “Some of my colleagues might feel burnout.”It’s a different sentiment among younger operatives who have yet to build their client lists or political loyalties and are eager to make their names in politics.
“大多数行业老手都知道，在参议院竞选中担任更高职位或管理众议院竞选更像是苦力活，但每个人内心深处都梦想在白宫工作，并想方设法进入那里，”这位年轻媒体顾问说。“我还要说，我交谈的几乎所有人都想参与总统竞选。”这种吸引力可能会从下层选票竞选中抽走年轻人才。民主党必须捍卫深陷共和党腹地的数十个众议院席位。在上周众参两院取得进展后，他们也越发渴望进一步向共和党把持的席位发起冲击。
“Most industry vets know that a higher position on a Senate race or managing a House race is more of a work horse job, but everyone secretly dreams of working in the White House and wants to get there,” said the young media consultant. “I’ll also say that pretty much everyone I talk to wants to do a presidential.”That allure could drain young talent from the down-ballot races. Democrats must defend dozens of House seats deep in Republican territory. After last week’s gains in the House and Senate, they are also increasingly eager to push further into GOP-held seats.
即便如此，这些成长的烦恼对一些民主党人士来说仍属于“幸福的烦恼”。
Even so, the growing pains are a high class dilemma for some Democratic hands.
“这是多么棒的问题。我们刚刚在全国范围内赢得了历史性数量的竞选，大批无名竞选人才崛起并获胜，”曾管理奥巴马总统2012年连任竞选的吉姆·梅西纳说。“这为新面孔争取更大角色提供了绝佳机会，党派也因此变得强大得多。”
“What a great problem to have. We just won a historic amount of races across the country, with a ton of unknown campaign talent who have risen up and won,” said Jim Messina, who managed President Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign. “This is a great opportunity for new faces to get their shot at bigger jobs and the party is so much stronger for it.”