这是一句古老的政治格言：你无法用无人来击败某人。目前，这正是国会山上少数呼吁众议院和参议院更换领导层的民主党议员——无论是新面孔还是在任者——面临的重大问题。对于那些批评现任民主党领导层的众多网络评论者来说，这也是一个问题：究竟谁来取代他们？
It’s an old political adage: You can’t beat somebody with nobody. At the moment, that’s the big problem for the handful of Democratic lawmakers on Capitol Hill — both new and incumbent — who are calling for new leaders in the House and Senate. It’s also a problem for the torrent of online commentators critical of the current Democratic leaders: Who, exactly, would replace them?
就目前情况而言，纽约州众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯有望在明年成为首位执掌议长木槌的黑人。而杰弗里斯的布鲁克林同乡、参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默则表示有信心在明年1月重新夺回参议院多数党领袖的头衔。目前没有人公开宣布挑战这两位领袖。
As it stands now, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York is on track to become the first Black person to ever wield the Speaker’s gavel next year. And Jeffries’ fellow Brooklynite, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, is expressing confidence he will regain the title of Senate Majority Leader in January. No one has publicly announced bids to challenge either leader.
但是，随着民主党人消化上周选举大胜的结果，他们在选举中的巨大收获并未平息一些长期酝酿的更换领导层的呼声——前提是反对者能找到愿意参选的人。
But as Democrats unpack the results of their electoral romp last week, their big electoral gains have done little to quell some of the long-simmering calls for new leadership — if detractors can find someone willing to run.
在参议院，马里兰州民主党人克里斯·范霍伦最接近公开挑战舒默。
In the Senate, Maryland Democrat Chris Van Hollen has come the closest to publicly challenging Schumer.
这位67岁的议员在众议院任职十多年后于2017年首次进入参议院，他一直处于“倾听模式”，本周表示他一直在给同僚打电话。
The 67-year-old, who first joined the Senate in 2017 after serving for more than a decade in the House, has been in “listening mode” and said this week that he’s been making calls to his colleagues.
“不应该搞加冕仪式，”范霍伦周二说。“我们需要在党团内进行讨论，需要有一个计划，说明我们将如何利用这一巨大的多数优势为国家服务。”范霍伦和其他拒绝支持75岁的舒默的人所提出的论点，部分在于：本月选民呼吁的是华盛顿的全面洗牌——而不仅仅是由哪个政党掌握木槌的改变。
“There should not be a coronation,” Van Hollen said Tuesday. “We need to have a discussion in the caucus, and there needs to be a plan on how we’re going to use this large majority to deliver for the country.”The argument Van Hollen and others who have declined to back the 75-year-old Schumer are making is, in part, that voters this month were calling for a total shakeup in Washington — not just a change in which party holds the gavels.
与民主党人一起参加党团会议的独立参议员伯尼·桑德斯告诉MS NOW，这次“选举关乎变革”。“人们希望参议院有新的领导层，所以我不会支持查克，”他说。
Sen. Bernie Sanders, an Independent who caucuses with the Democrats, told MS NOW that this “election was about change.”“People want new leadership here in the Senate, so I will not be supporting Chuck,” he said.
周二，参议员埃莉萨·斯洛特金（民主党-密歇根州）与桑德斯一同出席新闻发布会时表示，民主党人“需要新一代的领导层”。“我之前在众议院任职时就说过这话，我也曾这样说过乔·拜登，现在我在这里再说一遍，”斯洛特金说。她通常并不会发现自己与伯尼·桑德斯在意识形态上站在同一阵营。不过她澄清说，她本人“并未积极争取”多数党领袖一职。“我寻求的是变革，”她说。
At a Tuesday press conference alongside Sanders, Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., said Democrats “need a new generation of leadership.”“I said it before when I served in the House, I said it about Joe Biden, and I’m saying it here,” said Slotkin, who doesn’t typically find herself on an ideological island with Bernie Sanders. She clarified, however, that she herself is “not actively seeking” the majority leader job. “I am seeking change,” she said.
当MS NOW就领导层问题追问参议员拉斐尔·沃诺克时，这位佐治亚州民主党人不置可否，称他愿意听取有意出任领袖的同事们的意见。“美国人民想要变革，”他说。
When MS NOW pressed Sen. Raphael Warnock about leadership questions, the Georgia Democrat was noncommittal, saying he’s open to hearing from colleagues interested in being leader. “The American people want change,” he said.
沃诺克特别表示，他想知道任何候选人打算如何应对“企业势力在我们政治中的巨大影响，以及我们正在目睹的腐败”。一些即将上任的参议员也暗示他们不会支持舒默——考虑到舒默的民调数字处于水下，这或许并不那么令人意外。NBC新闻最近的一项民调发现，仅有13%的登记选民对他持正面看法。53%的人持负面看法。
In particular, Warnock said he wants to know any candidate’s plans to address the “outsized impact of corporate powers in our politics, the corruption that we’re witnessing.”Some incoming senators have also suggested they won’t support Schumer — perhaps not all that surprising, given that Schumer’s polling numbers are underwater. A recent NBC News poll found just 13% of registered voters view him positively. Fifty-three percent held a negative view.
上周二他的竞选结果刚揭晓，堪萨斯州民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿就告诉MS NOW，他对舒默“并无不敬”之意，但他想找到“能让我们团结起来的人”。显然有一些民主党人对舒默的领导并不满意——这种不满在私下里可能更深——但这位自2017年以来的民主党领袖在可能到来的领导权争夺中拥有一些显著优势。
Moments after his race was called last Tuesday, Kansas Democrat Adam Hamilton told MS NOW that he means “no disrespect” to Schumer, but he wants to find “people who unite us.”There are clearly some Democrats who aren’t satisfied with Schumer’s leadership — and that discontent could be even deeper privately — but the Democratic leader since 2017 has some significant advantages heading into a potential leadership contest.
其一，尽管范霍伦已暗示他正在考虑发起挑战，但他尚未投入这场角逐。目前，舒默是唯一宣布参选的候选人，而民主党人不愿开启一场内斗式的领导权之争——如果这场争斗注定徒劳无功，而且是在民主党今年取得压倒性胜利之后。
For one, while Van Hollen has signaled that he is considering a challenge, he hasn’t jumped into the race. For now, Schumer is the only declared candidate, and Democrats are leary of opening up an internecine leadership fight — if it’s going to be fruitless and after this year’s sweeping Democratic wins.
舒默周二表示，他“有信心”再次当选多数党领袖。而在周末发表于《纽约时报》的一篇文章中，舒默的助手称，他已从民主党参议员那里争取到足够多的承诺，足以在下个月的党内私下投票中当选领袖。
Schumer said Tuesday he is “confident” he will be elected majority again. And in a New York Times piece over the weekend, Schumer aides claimed he had already secured enough commitments from Democratic senators to be elected leader in next month’s private vote.
六个月前，几乎没有选举预测人士认为，面对艰难的选举版图，民主党有机会翻转参议院。然而，在舒默招募的一些候选人相当大的推动作用下，民主党翻转了参议院，最终可能净增多达九个席位。
Six months ago, few election prognosticators thought Democrats — facing a tough map — had a shot at flipping the Senate. Instead, fueled in no small part by some of Schumer’s recruits, they flipped the chamber and could end up netting as many as nine seats.
纽约州民主党参议员柯尔斯滕·吉利布兰德周二提出了这一论点，认为舒默理应因招募到北卡罗来纳州的罗伊·库珀和俄亥俄州的谢罗德·布朗等强有力候选人而获得赞誉，称他们帮助腾出资源，在其他地方扩大竞争版图。
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., made that case Tuesday, arguing Schumer deserves credit for strong recruits like Roy Cooper in North Carolina and Sherrod Brown in Ohio, saying they helped free up resources to expand the map elsewhere.
“我们用了一年半的时间谈论成本、腐败和混乱。那全是舒默领袖的决策和努力，才让我们的党团保持团结，”吉利布兰德说。
“We spent a year and a half talking about cost, corruption, and chaos. That was all Leader Schumer’s decisionmaking and effort to keep our caucus united,” Gillibrand said.
亚利桑那州民主党参议员鲁本·加列戈表达了同样的看法，称尽管他与舒默可能存在分歧，“这些是历史性的数字。”
Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., echoed that sentiment, saying despite any differences he may have with Schumer, “these are historic numbers.”
“现在是我们团结起来的时候了，”加列戈说。“我们将作为一个党团共同努力，制定一项计划，推进国家希望我们做的事情。”其他人，如夏威夷州民主党参议员布莱恩·沙茨和即将上任的俄亥俄州民主党参议员谢罗德·布朗，也表达了对舒默的支持。
“It’s time for us to unify,” Gallego said. “We’re going to work together as a caucus to put a plan together about how to move forward for what the country wants us to do.”Others, like Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, and incoming Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, have also voiced support for Schumer.
而当MS NOW问新墨西哥州民主党参议员本·雷·卢汉是否支持舒默时，他提出了一个难以置信的问题：“他有对手吗？”然而，舒默的批评者有几个有利因素。首先是时间。
And Sen. Ben Ray Lujan, D-N.M., had an incredulous question when MS NOW asked him if he’s backing Schumer: “Does he have an opponent?”Schumer’s critics, however, have a few factors working in their favor. The first is time.
参议院民主党领袖选举要到12月才举行。距离选举还有数周，范霍伦或其他民主党人仍可能发起挑战。而投票的性质可能对挑战者有利：投票采用无记名方式。这意味着参议员们可以公开支持舒默，私下却投票反对他——如果他们担心反对可能带来某些立法后果的话。
The Senate Democratic leadership elections are not until December. With weeks to go, Van Hollen or another Democrat could mount a bid. And the nature of the vote could be beneficial to a challenger: It’s by secret ballot. That means senators could publicly back Schumer and privately vote against him, if they feared their opposition may come with some legislative consequences.
但这种保密性是一把双刃剑：可能有些参议员私下支持舒默，却不愿公开表态支持他。
But the secrecy cuts both ways: There could be some senators who support Schumer privately but don’t want to back him publicly.
当“MS NOW”询问参议员罗恩·怀登（民主党-俄勒冈州）是否支持舒默时，他回答说：“我正在深入探讨实质性问题。我们不谈论那类事情。”参议员蒂姆·凯恩（民主党-弗吉尼亚州）则表示，他关于党团领导层的讨论是与党团成员进行的。“我不觉得有必要通过媒体向任何人传递关于那个话题的信息，”他说。
When MS NOW asked Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., whether he supported Schumer, he replied, “I’m getting into substance issues. We don’t talk about those kinds of things.”And Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., said his discussions about caucus leadership are with caucus members. “I don’t feel the need to send anybody messages through the press about that topic,” he said.
值得注意的是，舒默只需要获得其党团的简单多数支持，即使只有30名民主党参议员支持他，票数也足以获胜。
Schumer notably just needs a simple majority of his caucus, and even if he only gets the support of 30 Democratic senators, that would still be more than enough votes to win.
这门槛远低于杰弗里斯在众议院面临的计票难题，在那里，下一任民主党领袖需要获得全院过半数票才能当选议长。
That is a much lower bar than the math facing Jeffries in the House, where the next Democratic leader will need a majority of the entire chamber to become speaker.
虽然预计杰弗里斯将轻松当选议长，但他必须经受众议院全院公开投票的考验，在那里他需要获得全院过半数支持——而共和党人将全票投给他。
While Jeffries is expected to waltz to the Speaker’s office, he will have to survive a public vote on the House floor where he needs a majority of the entire chamber — with Republicans all voting against him.
通常这会是更艰巨的任务，但民主党有望在435个席位的众议院中占据近260个席位。杰弗里斯在议长选举中即使失去40多名民主党人的支持，依然能轻松当选。
Normally that would be a tougher task, but Democrats are on pace to have nearly 260 House seats in a chamber of 435. Jeffries could lose more than 40 Democrats on the speakership vote — and he would still comfortably be elected.
杰弗里斯的盟友并不指望会突然出现针对这位57岁纽约人的倒戈潮。
And Jeffries’ allies don’t exactly expect a sudden turn against the 57-year-old New Yorker.
“我们不会经历15轮投票。我们不会经历超过一轮投票，”众议员格雷戈里·米克斯（民主党-纽约州）对“MS NOW”表示——他援引了2023年凯文·麦卡锡（共和党-加利福尼亚州）最终获得议长木槌前经历的多轮投票。
“We won’t have 15 votes. We won’t have more than one vote,” Rep. Gregory Meeks, D-N.Y., told MS NOW — invoking the numerous rounds of votes it took for former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., to finally get the gavel in 2023.
杰弗里斯本人对有关他是否拥有必要支持的问题予以驳回，本周他半开玩笑地向记者反问：“你们以为我没有把票数锁定吗？”他说：“我将努力与每一位成员交谈，谈谈我们在过去两年里共同取得的成就，以及我们在未来两年里共同合作、兑现美国人民如此果断投票要求的剧变的机遇。”
Jeffries himself dismissed questions about whether he’ll have the necessary support, playfully posing this question to reporters this week: “You think I don’t have the vote nailed down?”“I’m going to work hard to talk to every single member about what we’ve been able to do together over the last two years, and what the opportunities are for us to do together in the next two years to deliver upon the dramatic change that the American people so decisively voted for,” he said.
当然，仍有持保留态度的人，特别是进步派阵营中那些寻求政策承诺的人。
Of course, there are still holdouts, particularly among the progressive ranks who are looking for policy assurances.
众议员普拉米拉·贾亚帕尔（民主党-华盛顿州）本周告诉“MS NOW”，总是“存在谈判”。“我想确保‘全民医保’法案有实际的修订和表决，”她在“State of Play”节目中表示。“我想确保我们打击腐败、遏制大型科技公司。我想确保我们的以色列政策发生改变。这些都是最终总会进入谈判的事项。”一些新当选的进步派民主党人将自己标榜为“未决定”，表示他们想就如何兑现——正如科罗拉多州当选众议员梅拉特·基罗斯所言——“赢得中期选举周期的民粹主义政治”进行对话。基罗斯说，她在寻找一份议程。“这不关乎个人，”她说。
Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., told MS NOW this week that there’s “always a negotiation.”“I want to make sure that there is an actual markup and vote on Medicare for All,” she said during an appearance on State of Play. “I want to make sure that we are taking on corruption and reining in big tech. I want to make sure that there’s a change to our Israel policy. These are the things that always end up in a negotiation.”Some of the new incoming progressive Democrats have labeled themselves undecided, saying they want a conversation about how to deliver on — as Rep.-elect Melat Kiros of Colorado put it — the “populist politics that won the midterm cycle.”Kiros said she’s looking for an agenda. “It’s not about the individual,” she said.
“这关乎我们要有什么样的优先事项、什么样的全院表决、什么样的计划，才能真正为美国人民派我们来此要做的大胆变革而战，”她补充道。
“It’s about what kind of priorities, what kind of floor votes, what kind of plan do we have to actually fight for the bold change the American people sent us here to do,” she added.
不过，新当选议员中也有其他声音渴望迅速结束领导层讨论——担心任何长期斗争都是适得其反。
Still, there are other voices within the new class that are eager to wrap up the leadership discussion fast — worrying that any prolonged fight is counterproductive.
马萨诸塞州当选众议员丹·科赫告诉“MS NOW”，他支持杰弗里斯，援引了米克斯同样提到的、共和党内部围绕麦卡锡竞选议长职位的漫长内斗。
Rep.-elect Dan Koh of Massachusetts told MS NOW he is backing Jeffries, invoking, like Meeks, the protracted internecine GOP battle over McCarthy’s speakership bid.
“我们需要向MAGA学习，”他说。“我们需要彻查特朗普的腐败问题，为民众降低成本。我们不能有数月数月的激烈对立。”在国会大厦之外，网络评论员在社交媒体上热议这场竞选，批评杰弗里斯面对特朗普打破常规过于胆怯，并呼吁替换他。
“We need to learn from MAGA,” he said. “We need to get to the bottom of Trump’s corruption and lower costs for people. We can’t have months and months of acrimony.”Outside of the Capitol, internet commentators have lit up social media about the race, knocking Jeffries as too timid in the face of Trump blowing up norms and calling for him to be replaced.
对此，众议员亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯（民主党-纽约州）发布了一段“校舍摇滚”风格的视频，解释议长选举实际如何运作——以及议长职位实际包含哪些职责。
In response, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., has posted a ‘School House Rock’ style video explaining how speakership elections actually work — and what the speaker role actually entails.
前国会进步核心小组主席、众议员马克·波坎（民主党-威斯康星州）——他告诉《MS NOW》杰弗里斯“毫无疑问”将成为议长——提出了一条建议。
And former Congressional Progressive Caucus chair Rep. Mark Pocan, D-Wis. — who told MS NOW there’s “no question” Jeffries will be speaker — had a word of advice.
“归根结底，我们需要办成一些大事，我们真的能在许多方面推动实质性进展，”波坎说。“但前提是大家齐心协力——无论是在大楼内部还是外部。”
“At the end of the day, we need to get some big things done, and we can really move the needle on a lot of stuff,” Pocan said. “But not if people aren’t all rowing together — both inside and outside the building.”