美国国会山内部的众议院和参议院党团领袖选举，是最引人入胜的政治博弈之一。众议院和参议院的民主党与共和党都将在未来几天内选出各自的领袖，而这些变动将是巨大的。
Internal party House and Senate leadership elections are some of the most fascinating exercises which unfold on Capitol Hill. Both House and Senate Democrats and House and Senate Republicans will choose their leaders in the coming days. And the changes are going to be seismic.
但并非所有人都认可这些顺理成章的继任者，这正是这一过程如此耐人寻味的原因。
But not everyone is on board with heir apparent leaders. That’s what makes this process so intriguing.
然而，领袖选举只有两条铁律：你不能用无人来击败有人。或许更重要的是，这关乎数字游戏。
However, there are only two rules in leadership elections: You can’t beat someone with no one. And, perhaps more importantly, it’s about the math.
一些进步派和“美国民主社会主义者”（DSA）背景的民主党人明年将成为众议员，他们希望由非现任众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯（民主党-纽约州）的人选担任领袖。是谁？目前无人表态。再说了，你不能用无人来击败有人。坦率说，很难相信民主党会不选出首位非裔众议长。但让我们深究一下数字。
There are some progressives and DSA-affiliated Democrats who will be House Members next year who want someone other than House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. Who? Well, no one has said. Again, you can’t beat someone with no one. And frankly, it’s hard to believe that Democrats would not elect the first Black Speaker of the House. But drill down on the math.
姑且假设民主党在新一届国会拥有260个众议院席位。首先，民主党必须在党团会议上提名一名众议长候选人，这需要简单多数。因此，杰弗里斯在众议长的无记名投票中肯定能获得至少131票。
For the sake of argument, let’s say Democrats have 260 House seats in the new Congress. First, Democrats must tap a nominee for Speaker in their Caucus. That needs a simple majority. So surely Jeffries will score at least 131 votes in a private ballot for Speaker.
众议长是立法部门的宪法职位官员——正如总统之于行政部门、美国首席大法官之于司法部门。因此，当新一届国会于1月3日中午召开时，全体众议员将投票选举众议长。
The Speaker of the House is the constitutional officer for the legislative branch of government – much like the president is for the executive branch and the chief justice of the United States for the judicial branch. Thus, the ENTIRE House votes for Speaker when it convenes the new Congress at noon on Jan. 3.
共有435名议员。如果所有议员都投出选票，杰弗里斯只需218票。杰弗里斯即便流失40票左右仍可胜出，所以那种情况不会发生。坦率说，他甚至可能只会流失几票而已。
There are 435 Members. If all Members cast ballots, Jeffries simply needs 218. Jeffries could lose 40 votes or so and still prevail. So that is not going to happen. It might not even lose more than a couple votes, frankly.
现在来看共和党及其竞选少数党领袖的情况。众议院多数党领袖史蒂夫·斯卡利斯（共和党-路易斯安那州）正在与众议员吉姆·乔丹（共和党-俄亥俄州）竞争。如果民主党拥有260个席位，共和党将拥有175个席位。所有新当选的众议院共和党人（包括来自美国领土的无表决权代表）均可在党团会议上投票。少数党领袖的选举不像议长那样提交全院表决。因此，获胜候选人只需获得简单多数。那将是88票。
Now let’s look at the GOP and their case for Minority Leader. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., is running against Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio. If Democrats have 260 seats, Republicans would have 175. All INCOMING House Republicans (including non-voting delegates from U.S. territories) are allowed to vote in CONFERENCE. The selection of Minority Leader does NOT go before the entire House like Speaker. So, the winning candidate only needs a simple majority. That would be 88.
众议院多数党党鞭汤姆·埃默（共和党-明尼苏达州）与众议员奥古斯特·普夫格（共和党-得克萨斯州）竞选少数党党鞭的情况也是一样。
The same for the race between House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., and Rep. August Pfluger, R-Texas, for Minority Whip.
参议院民主党党团和共和党党团的运作方式与众议院大体相同。在民主党党团中，简单多数决定多数党领袖人选；在共和党党团中，简单多数决定少数党领袖人选。然而，参议院多数党领袖的选举不是在参议院议场进行的投票。“参议院多数党领袖”这一职位概念仅存在于20世纪初以来，宪法中并未提及。请记住我们之前提到的，众议院议长是这一政府分支的首脑。
The Senate Democratic Caucus and Republican Conference works much the same way as the House. A simple majority wins for Majority Leader in the Democratic Caucus and Minority Leader in the Republican Conference. However, the selection of Senate Majority Leader is not a vote which plays out on the floor. The concept of "Senate Majority Leader" has only been around since the early 20th Century and is not mentioned in the Constitution. Remember what we said about the House Speaker being the head of this branch of government.
很难想象一种情景：民主党在参议院以压倒性优势翻盘后，参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默（民主党-纽约州）不会成为多数党领袖。
It would be hard to envision a scenario where Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., would not become Majority Leader after Democrats flipped the Senate in a beat down.
首先，还有谁在竞选？参议员布赖恩·沙茨（民主党-夏威夷州）在参议院民主党人中非常受欢迎。但他正在竞选多数党党鞭，以接替即将退休的参议院少数党党鞭迪克·德宾（民主党-伊利诺伊州）。如果舒默出现什么情况，人们可以预见民主党会默认选择沙茨。
First, who else is running? Well, Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, is very popular among Senate Democrats. But he’s running for Majority Whip to succeed retiring Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill. One could see Democrats defaulting to Schatz is something happens with Schumer.
当选参议员阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德（民主党-密歇根州）表示他想考虑各种选择，并已背书参议员克里斯·范霍伦（民主党-马里兰州）竞选多数党领袖。但范霍伦并未参选。当选参议员安妮·安德鲁斯（民主党-南卡罗来纳州）告诉同事布雷特·拜尔，她希望领导层实现“代际更替”。当选参议员特洛伊·杰克逊（民主党-缅因州）和当选参议员亚当·汉密尔顿（民主党-堪萨斯州）均表示将反对舒默。但话又说回来，你无法用无人来击败无人。
Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed, D-Mich., has said he wants to look at his options and as endorsed Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., for Majority Leader. But Van Hollen isn’t running. Sen.-elect Annie Andrews, D-S.C., told colleague Bret Baier she wants a "generational change" in leadership. Sen.-elect Troy Jackson, D-Maine, and Sen.-elect Adam Hamilton, D-Kan., both said they would oppose Schumer. But again, you can’t beat someone with no one.
算笔账：假设民主党赢下密西西比州和阿拉斯加州，使他们拥有56名与民主党核心小组会议的参议员。舒默只需要29名民主党人在核心小组会议上支持他，他就会成为下一任多数党领袖。
Here’s the math: Let’s say Democrats do win Mississippi and Alaska, giving them 56 senators who caucus with the Democrats. All Schumer needs is 29 Democrats to support him in Caucus and he’s the next Majority Leader.
关于参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩（共和党-南达科他州）的前途，目前议论较少。迄今为止，特朗普总统尚未呼吁参议院更换领导层。但参议院共和党人将在参议院共和党核心小组会议上通过秘密投票选择图恩或其他任何人。简单多数即可获胜。如果共和党席位降至44个，获胜者只需23票。
There has not been as much rumbling about the future of Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D. Heretofore, President Trump has not called for new leadership in the Senate. But Senate Republicans would choose Thune or anyone else on a secret ballot in the Senate GOP Conference. A simple majority would win. If Republicans are down to 44 seats, the winner would just need 23 votes.