
对即将在国会成为多数党的民主党来说,以生活负担能力和生活成本为竞选主题本是显而易见的选择。现在难的是:如何兑现所有这些竞选承诺。
For the incoming Democratic majority in Congress, running on affordability and the cost of living was an obvious choice. Now comes the hard part: making good on all those campaign promises.
民主党人表示,他们将迅速采取行动,恢复《平价医疗法案》下的医疗保险补贴,并逆转特朗普政府和国会共和党人对医疗补助和食品福利的削减。有望出任众议院议长的纽约州众议员哈基姆·杰弗里斯也已表示,众议院将投票废除政府部分关税,这些关税推高了企业和消费者的成本。
Democrats have said they will act quickly to restore health insurance subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, and to reverse cuts to Medicaid and food benefits enacted by the Trump administration and congressional Republicans. The likely Speaker of the House, New York Representative Hakeem Jeffries, has also signaled the chamber will vote to repeal some of the administration’s tariffs, which have driven up costs for businesses and consumers.
但该党将受到多重制约:总统唐纳德·特朗普仍掌控行政分支并拥有否决权,财政前景严峻,而且美联储可能进一步加息。此外还有一个棘手的政策难题:住房和燃料等生活成本问题难以轻易解决。
But the party will be constrained by President Donald Trump’s continued control of the executive branch and veto power, a dire fiscal outlook, and the likelihood of more Federal Reserve rate hikes. Then there’s a stubborn policy challenge: Cost-of-living issues such as housing and fuel defy easy fixes.
无党派的负责任联邦预算委员会主席玛雅·麦吉尼亚斯警告存在“政治迎合”的风险,指出美国赤字约占GDP的6%,并称增加支出可能在短期内使情况更糟。
Maya MacGuineas, president of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, warned of the risk of “political pandering” with the US deficit at about 6% of GDP, noting that more spending could make things worse in the short run.
麦吉尼亚斯在彭博电视台的一次采访中说,民主党的可负担性议程“高度依赖于我们在财政上负责任,而一旦人们明白,当你的赤字如此之高时,你无法降低利率,无法压低物价,也无法提高工资”。她还说,要控制不断上升的债务,既需要削减支出,也需要增税。
The Democratic affordability agenda “is so highly dependent on us being responsible fiscally that once people come to understand you cannot bring interest rates down, you cannot bring prices down, you cannot bring wages up when your deficit is this high,” MacGuineas said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. She added that both spending cuts and tax increases are needed to bring rising debt under control.
如何回报选民在经济上的信任,已经在民主党人内部暴露出分歧,其中包括一些本月为民主党赢得最重大胜利的人。
Figuring out how to reward voters’ trust on the economy is already exposing divisions among Democrats, including some of those who scored the party’s most dramatic victories this month.
南卡罗来纳州当选参议员安妮·安德鲁斯表示,她宁愿与特朗普合作,在生活成本问题上实现本党的目标,而不是把精力放在“报复之旅”上。
South Carolina Senator-elect Annie Andrews said she’d rather work with Trump to achieve her party’s goals on cost-of-living issues instead of focusing on a “retribution tour.”
安德鲁斯在赢得选举后接受福克斯新闻采访时说:“我愿意与特朗普总统合作,确保边境安全,阻止这些医疗补助削减,为这场战争找到出路。与政府对抗不会降低汽油价格和食品杂货价格,也不会解决我过去18个月里听到的那些问题。”但这种本能反应在党内许多人看来是不可接受的,他们视全国选民对共和党的排斥为对大胆政策举措的授权,包括在经济事务上。
“I’m willing to work with President Trump to secure the border, to stop these Medicaid cuts, to find a way out of this war,” Andrews said on Fox News after her election win. “Fighting the administration is not going to lower gas prices and grocery prices, it’s not going to solve the problems I’ve heard about the past 18 months.”But that instinct is anathema to many within the party, who see the nationwide rejection of Republicans as a mandate for bold policy moves, including on economic matters.

“当我们获得权力时,我们需要用它来做点什么,”民主党策略师、Fight Agency公司的联合创始人丽贝卡·卡茨说。她参与了一些本党获胜的竞选活动,包括密歇根州当选参议员阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德的竞选,以及去年纽约市长佐赫兰·马姆达尼的竞选。
“When we get power, we need to do something with it,” said Rebecca Katz, a Democratic strategist and co-founder of the firm Fight Agency, who worked on some of the party’s winning campaigns, including that of Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and, last year, New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
卡茨周二在进步经济智库“基础工作协作组织”举办的一场论坛上发表了讲话。党内顾问和议员们在这场论坛上交流了如何向选民表明他们正在着手解决选民的经济关切,与会者包括马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦和马里兰州参议员克里斯·范霍伦。
Katz spoke Tuesday at a forum organized by the progressive economic think tank Groundwork Collaborative, where party consultants and lawmakers including Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Chris Van Hollen of Maryland compared notes on how to demonstrate to voters that they are acting on their economic concerns.
自从特朗普最初表示愿意与民主党人合作以来,沃伦一直敦促本党“戳穿他的虚张声势”,向总统提交大量新立法,涵盖从药品定价到伊朗战争等各个领域。
Since Trump initially signaled a willingness to work with Democrats, Warren has urged her party to “call his bluff” and send the president rafts of new legislation on everything from drug pricing to the war in Iran.
但党内策略师也表示,利用总统职位的讲坛为消费者争取更好的价格和待遇可能同样重要——而且可能比试图驾驭难以控制的经济力量更有效。
But party strategists also say that the use of the bully pulpit to win better pricing and treatment for consumers could be equally important – and possibly more effective than trying to wrangle intractable economic forces.
“刚刚上任的民主党人处境很微妙,因为他们在联邦、州和地方层面都获得了授权,但在联邦层面他们并不掌控行政权,”阿尔瓦罗·贝多亚说。他曾是联邦贸易委员会成员,此前曾担任时任明尼苏达州民主党参议员阿尔·弗兰肯的法律顾问。
“The Democrats who just came in are in this curious spot because they have a mandate at the federal and state and local level, but at the federal level they don’t control the executive,” said Alvaro Bedoya, a former member of the Federal Trade Commission who previously served as counsel to then-Senator Al Franken, Democrat of Minnesota.
贝多亚举了Instacart的例子:该公司在收到民主党参议员就浮动食品杂货定价做法提出抱怨的公开信后,几天内就放弃了一项相关试验。他在接受采访时说,这是民主党可以复制的策略。
Bedoya pointed to the example of Instacart, which abandoned an experiment with variable grocery pricing within days of receiving public letters from Democratic senators complaining about the practice. That’s a strategy the party could replicate, he said in an interview.
“如果你向一家上市公司发出一封监督信,对方的回应往往要快得多,因为这家公司必须对消费者作出回应,也必须对媒体的强烈反应作出回应,”贝多亚说。
“If you send an oversight letter to a publicly traded company, the response is often much quicker because that company has to respond to consumers and it has to respond to an outcry in the press,” Bedoya said.
在拜登政府期间,国会民主党人和政府就专利做法公开批评制药公司,促使勃林格殷格翰、阿斯利康和葛兰素史克等一些公司自愿将吸入器价格上限设为35美元。
During the Biden administration, congressional Democrats and the administration called out pharmaceutical companies over their patenting practices, leading some, such as Boehringer Ingelheim, AstraZeneca PLC and GlaxoSmithKline, to voluntarily cap inhaler prices at $35.
据“基础工作协作组织”负责政策、倡导和研究的高级副总裁亚历克斯·哈克斯称,在下一届国会中,民主党人可能会就涨价或潜在串通行为,对公用事业、医疗保健和租赁公司施加类似压力。该组织一直在与国会民主党人合作制定经济战略。
In the next Congress, Democrats could exert similar pressure on utility, healthcare and rental companies over price hikes or potential collusion, according to Alex Jacquez, Groundwork Collaborative’s senior vice president for policy, advocacy and research. The organization has been working with Congressional Democrats on economic strategy.
“你可以想象,我们也会审视住房市场中的算法租金串通或租户服务费问题,然后是医疗保健成本,”哈克斯说,并提到了制药公司和药品福利管理机构。
“You could imagine looking at algorithmic rent collusion or service fees for renters in the housing market as well, and then on healthcare costs,” Jacquez said, citing pharmaceutical companies and pharmacy benefit managers.
布鲁金斯学会经济研究主任、曾在珍妮特·耶伦手下担任财政部助理部长的本·哈里斯表示,民主党人还可以在谈判中利用自己的筹码——通过年度预算和提高美国政府可发行债务的上限——来迫使对方撤销对补充营养援助计划(SNAP)、联邦医疗保险(Medicare)和医疗补助(Medicaid)的削减。预计美国将在明年触及国会授权的债务上限。
Ben Harris, director of economic studies at the Brookings Institution and a former assistant secretary of Treasury under Janet Yellen, said that Democrats could also use their leverage during negotiations to pass annual budgets and raise the level of debt the US government can issue to force rollbacks of cuts to SNAP, Medicare and Medicaid. The US is expected to hit its congressionally-authorized debt limit next year.
哈里斯也认同,温和派与进步派民主党人在生活负担问题上的紧张关系也会显现出来:更偏左的声音主张采取“更强硬的手段”,推行租金管制等政策,而中间派民主党人则将更多关注住房、医疗和教育。政党组织者表示,对新多数党而言最大的风险是未能大胆行动。
Harris agreed that tensions between moderate and progressive Democrats on affordability will also play out, with farther-left voices advocating “a more heavy-handed approach” with policies like rent control, while centrist Democrats will focus more on housing, medical care and education. The greatest risk for the new majority, party organizers said, is failing to act boldly.
“我们将很难兑现自己的承诺,”招募公职候选人的非营利组织“为某事而竞选”的创始人阿曼达·利特曼说。“我们在特朗普身上就看到了这一点:选民会注意到。不要开你兑现不了的支票。不要做出你守不住的承诺。我很担心。这是一个真实的忧虑。”
“We’re going to have a really hard time keeping our promises,” said Amanda Litman, a founder of Run For Something, a nonprofit that recruits candidates for political office. “And we’re seeing this now with Trump: Voters notice. Don’t write checks you can’t cash. Don’t make promises you can’t keep. And I’m worried. It’s a real concern.”