
民主党凭借“蓝色浪潮”在美国中期选举中获胜,赢得了国会两院的控制权。现在的问题是,他们能否兑现承诺。
Democrats rode a blue wave to victory in the United States midterm elections winning control of both chambers of Congress Now comes the question of whether they can deliver on their promises.
该党竞选主张包括降低生活成本、结束对伊朗的战争、追究总统唐纳德·特朗普的责任,以及反对他的移民打压行动。
The party campaigned on bringing down the cost of living, ending the war on Iran and holding President Donald Trump accountable, as well as pushing back against his immigration crackdown.
但民主党要到1月才能掌控国会。即便如此,在没有共和党合作的情况下,他们能做的事情也有限。
But Democrats won’t take control of Congress until January. Even then, there’s only so much they’ll be able to do without Republican cooperation.
大多数法案需要60票才能在参议院通过阻挠议事,即使民主党做到这一点,特朗普仍可否决他们的立法。他已经威胁要这样做,周一在一次播客节目中表示:“我将否决一切。”但民主党现在也有其他可用工具,包括对参议院确认程序的权力,以及控制可以启动调查的委员会。
Most bills need 60 votes to get past a filibuster in the Senate, and even if Democrats manage that, Trump can still veto their legislation. He has already threatened to do just that, telling a podcast on Monday, “I’ll veto everything.”But the Democrats now also have other tools at their disposal, including power over Senate confirmations and control over committees that can launch investigations.
那么,未来两年民主党实际能完成什么,又在哪些方面可能难以兑现承诺?民主党能降低生活成本吗?
So what can Democrats realistically accomplish over the next two years, and where might they struggle to make good on their promises? Can Democrats bring down the cost of living?
可负担性是选民在周二中期选举前最关心的问题之一,民主党抓住这一点,承诺降低能源、住房、医疗和杂货的成本。
Affordability was one of the biggest issues for voters heading into Tuesday’s midterm elections, and Democrats seized on that, promising to bring down the costs of energy, housing, healthcare and groceries.
迪恩·贝克是一位经济学家,也是位于美国的智库经济政策研究中心的联合创始人。他说,民主党降低成本最有效的做法之一,是推动结束对伊朗的战争。
Dean Baker, an economist and cofounder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a US-based think tank, said one of the most effective things Democrats can do to bring down costs is push for an end to the war on Iran.
自2月以来,这场冲突推高了能源价格,因为伊朗限制了通过霍尔木兹海峡的商业交通,该海峡是石油和天然气贸易的重要水道。
Since February, the conflict has driven up energy prices, as Iran has restricted commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for the oil and gas trade.
贝克认为,民主党可以利用国会调查和监督,向特朗普政府施压,要求其结束战争,这可能有助于为消费者提供缓解。
Baker argued that Democrats could use congressional investigations and oversight to pressure the Trump administration to end the war, potentially helping to give consumers relief.
贝克表示,外交政策是一些共和党人可能与民主党找到共同点的领域。
Foreign policy is an area where some Republicans could find common cause with Democrats, said Baker.
他补充说,另一个领域可能是医疗保健,这一问题同样影响选民的钱包。
Another area, he added, might be healthcare, an issue that similarly hits voters in the pocketbook.
2025年《平价医疗法案》增强补贴到期,使许多美国人面临更高的保险费用。
The expiration of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies in 2025 has left many Americans facing higher insurance premiums.
凭借新的国会多数席位,民主党可以推动恢复这些补贴,并撤销对医疗补助计划的削减,该计划是面向低收入美国人的政府医疗保健项目。
With their new congressional majorities, Democrats could push to restore those subsidies and reverse cuts to Medicaid, the government healthcare programme for low-income Americans.
贝克表示,实现这一目标的可能途径是将这些措施纳入国会需要通过的政府支出法案中。这也将使特朗普更难予以否决。
A possible path to accomplishing that goal would be to include those measures in government spending bills that Congress needs to pass, according to Baker. That would also make them harder for Trump to reject.
“生活在特朗普之后世界的共和党人,我认为他们不想站在阻止人们获得医疗保健,或者说基本上让人们为医疗保健支付更多费用的一边,”贝克说。“他们可以让政治局势变成他不想否决它的样子。”特朗普的关税运动是推高消费者成本的另一个因素。但贝克警告说,要推翻特朗普的否决,没有共和党的大力支持可能会更难。即使他们做到了,价格也可能需要一段时间才能真正下降。
“Republicans living in a post-Trump world, I don’t think they want to be on the side of preventing people from getting healthcare or basically paying more for healthcare,” Baker said. “They can make the politics such that he doesn’t want to veto it.”Trump’s tariff campaign is another factor driving up consumer costs. But Baker warned that they could be tougher to reverse, without substantial support from Republicans to override a Trump veto. Even if they do manage that, prices could take a while to actually drop.
“价格像火箭和羽毛。它们像火箭一样飞升;像羽毛一样飘落,”进步派经济智库Groundwork Collaborative的政策与倡导主管亚历克斯·贾凯兹说。
“Prices are like rockets and feathers. They shoot up like rockets; they come down like feathers,” said Alex Jacquez, chief of policy and advocacy at Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive economic think tank.
然而,贾凯兹指出,民主党还可以采取另一条不需要特朗普批准的道路。
Jacquez, however, pointed to another path Democrats could take that wouldn’t need Trump’s approval.
凭借国会多数席位,民主党可以利用国会委员会调查那些一直在推高从杂货到电费等各种商品价格的公司。
With majorities in Congress, Democrats could wield congressional committees to investigate companies that have been raising the prices of everything from groceries to electricity bills.
“仅仅通过掌握议事权并能够传唤首席执行官、将人们带到国会面前,就有很多先例能够取得一些真正的实质性成果,”贾凯兹在接受半岛电视台采访时表示。
“There’s a lot of precedent for getting some real material outcomes just through having the gavels and being able to subpoena CEOs and haul people in front of Congress,” Jacquez told Al Jazeera.
虽然这些调查不一定能降低价格,但可能会迫使公司解释或调整其决策。民主党控制的国会能否让特朗普承担责任?
While there’s no guarantee these investigations would bring down prices, they could put pressure on companies to explain or adjust their decisions. Could a Democratic Congress hold Trump accountable?
乔治城大学政府事务研究所高级研究员劳拉·布莱辛预计,民主党将大量运用其新的调查权力。
Laura Blessing, a senior fellow at Georgetown University’s Government Affairs Institute, expects Democrats to make extensive use of their new investigative powers.
“就花费的时间和报纸的篇幅而言,民主党将在这一领域采取最多的行动,远超其他领域,”她在接受半岛电视台采访时表示。国会调查不需要白宫批准。但通过审查特朗普在政府内外的行为,这些调查可能会让他的生活更加困难。
“In terms of time spent and newspaper ink spilled, this is where you’re going to see the most action from Dems, by a mile,” she told Al Jazeera in an Congressional investigations do not require White House approval. But they could make life harder for Trump by scrutinising his actions both within and outside of government.
许多民主党人已表示,计划在即将就职的新一届国会中,调查特朗普家族财富的来源。
Many Democrats have signalled they plan to investigate the source of the Trump family’s wealth as part of January’s incoming Congress.
根据今年早些时候公布的财务披露表,特朗普的个人财富自其任期开始以来已增加了约22亿美元。
Trump’s personal wealth has soared by about $2.2bn since the start of his term, according to financial disclosure forms released earlier this year.
过去两年中,其家族商业帝国也扩展到了从加密货币、无人机到人工智能和预测市场等各个领域——这些行业正是其政府在政策中所支持的。
His family’s business empire has likewise expanded over the last two years into everything from cryptocurrency and drones to artificial intelligence and prediction markets — industries his government has favoured in its policies.
民主党参议员们已经开始为可能的调查打基础,向公司和政府部门发函,要求其保存记录。
Democratic senators have already been laying the groundwork for potential investigations, sending letters to companies and government departments demanding that they preserve records.
他们可能审查的问题包括:特朗普白宫舞厅的捐款人是否获得了政府的优待,以及司法部是否针对其政治对手。然而,不能保证所有人都会配合。
Among the issues they could examine are whether donors to Trump’s White House ballroom received favourable treatment from the government, and whether the Justice Department targeted his political opponents. There is no guarantee, however, that everyone will cooperate.
特朗普政府官员可能会在法庭上对传票提出质疑,从而拖延调查。但布莱辛表示,她不指望“特朗普的核心家庭成员会出庭应传”,不过,民主党仍可询问政府雇员以及与特朗普内圈有关联的其他人。
Trump administration officials could challenge subpoenas in court, delaying investigations. But while Blessing doesn’t expect “Trump’s nuclear family to show up to a subpoena”, she said Democrats could still question government employees and others connected to Trump’s inner circle.
即使他们发现不法行为,也无法保证会有法律后果,因为决定是否受理这些案件的是特朗普自己的司法部。
Even if they uncover wrongdoing, however, there is no guarantee of legal consequences, since it’s Trump’s own Justice Department that would have to decide whether to take up the cases.
弹劾是另一种可能性。议员们已经针对国防部长皮特·赫格塞思提出了弹劾条款,理由包括多项指控,其中包括他未先寻求国会批准就对伊朗发动战争的指控。
Impeachment is another possibility. Lawmakers have already introduced articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for multiple reasons, including allegations that he waged war against Iran without seeking congressional approval first.
共和党众议员托马斯·马西表示,他将试图在下周退任国会恢复会议时,迫使众议院对赫格塞思的弹劾进行表决。
Republican Representative Thomas Massie has said he will try to force a House vote on Hegseth’s impeachment when the outgoing Congress returns to session next week.
然而,特朗普在其第一个任期内曾两次被弹劾,他却否认自己会面临第三次弹劾的前景,周三对记者表示,他“一点也不”担心。
Trump, who was impeached twice during his first term, however, dismissed the prospect of facing a third impeachment himself, telling reporters on Wednesday that he was “not even a little bit” worried.
“如果他们那样做,我认为这会摧毁民主党,因为那是毫无理由的弹劾,”他说。特朗普还为赫格塞思辩护,称他正在做“一份非常好的工作”。
“I think it would destroy the Democratic Party if they did that, because it would be impeachment for no reason,” he said. Trump also defended Hegseth, saying he was doing “a very good job”.
即使众议院投票弹劾一名政府官员,该案件仍需在参议院审判中进行审议。
Even if the House of Representatives votes to impeach a government official, the case must still be weighed in a Senate trial.
罢免一名民选官员需要参议院三分之二的票数,这意味着许多共和党人需要加入,才能罢免特朗普或赫格塞思这样的人物。美国历史上,从未有总统因弹劾程序被免职。民主党能结束对伊朗的战争吗?
Removing an elected official would require a two-thirds vote in the Senate, meaning many Republicans would need to get on board to oust a figure like Trump or Hegseth. No president in US history has ever been removed from office as a result of an impeachment proceeding. Could Democrats end the war on Iran?
距离第120届国会宣誓就职还有不到两个月,专家预计特朗普将利用退任的共和党多数派的最后几周时间,推动通过任何剩余的立法优先事项。
With less than two months until the 120th Congress is sworn in, experts anticipate Trump will use his final weeks with the outgoing Republican majorities to push through any remaining legislative priorities.
昆西负责任国家政策研究所执行副总裁特里塔·帕尔西表示,这也为特朗普提供了一个关键窗口,以升级对伊朗的战争。
It also leaves Trump a critical window in which to escalate the war on Iran, according to Trita Parsi, the executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a foreign policy think tank.
“他在面对屈辱和失败时,会变得更加鲁莽,这表现出一种模式,”帕尔西告诉半岛电视台。
“He has shown a pattern in which, in the face of humiliation and defeat, he becomes more reckless,” Parsi told Al Jazeera.
民主党可能会推动一项具有约束力的决议,以结束这场战争。毕竟,美国宪法赋予国会宣战的唯一权力,而1973年《战争权力法》等法律为立法者在未经授权的冲突持续超过60天后终止冲突提供了一条途径。
Democrats could pursue a binding resolution to wind down the war. After all, the US Constitution assigns Congress the sole authority to declare war, and laws like the War Powers Act of 1973 give lawmakers a path to ending unauthorised conflicts past the 60-day mark.
但鉴于特朗普可能否决他们提出的措施,这些努力是否奏效并无保证。
But there is no guarantee that those efforts would work, given the possibility of Trump vetoing their proposed measures.
不过,专家表示,民主党还有另一种方式来限制特朗普的战争权力。他们最有力的工具之一将是对政府支出的控制。
Experts, however, say there is another way that Democrats could rein in Trump’s war powers. One of their most powerful tools will be control over government spending.
特朗普政府可以继续使用已拨款用于军事行动的资金,但民主党可能会试图阻止为战争提供额外资金。
The Trump administration can continue using money already allocated for military operations, but Democrats could try to block additional funding for the war.
“这为他开展战争的时间设定了限制,”帕尔西说。“如果他需要为此筹集更多资金,我们谈论的可不是他能轻易从其他地方挪用的小笔款项。”凭借对国会委员会的控制,民主党还可以调查政府在战争期间的行为,包括其军事行动是否符合美国法律。
“It creates a limitation for how long he can pursue the war,” Parsi said. “If he needs more funding for it, we’re not talking about small sums that he can just reallocate from other places easily.”With control of congressional committees, Democrats could also investigate the administration’s conduct during the war, including whether its military operations complied with US law.
“严格的监督本身不会限制军事行动,但可能会使战争的政治成本超出总统或其他关键官员愿意承受的范围,”政府监督项目的政策分析师大卫·扬诺夫斯基说。
“Rigorous oversight would not restrict military operations by itself but could raise the political costs of the war beyond what the president or other key officials are willing to endure,” said David Janovsky, a policy analyst at the Project on Government Oversight.
然而,民主党到底有多少政治意愿来结束这场冲突,仍是一个未知数。
How much political will Democrats have to end the conflict, however, is an open question.
政府事务研究员布莱辛指出,该党历史上一直不愿扣留军事资金,担心被指责削弱美军。
Blessing, the government affairs fellow, noted that the party has historically been reluctant to withhold military funding out of fear of being accused of undermining US troops.
但帕尔西警告说,不采取行动在政治上将不可持续——并且可能被该党的基本选民视为默许美国在中东的军事介入。
But Parsi warned that failing to act would be politically unsustainable — and could be seen by the party’s base as a tacit endorsement of US military involvement in the Middle East.
“这将不再只是特朗普的战争,”帕尔西说。“他们也将共同承担,因为他们会成为共犯,因为他们有能力阻止它。”民主党能否约束特朗普的移民打压?
“It will no longer be just Trump’s war,” Parsi said. “They will also co-own it, because they will be complicit, because they have the ability to stop it.”Could Democrats rein in Trump’s immigration crackdown?
即将由民主党主导的国会的另一个目标可能是特朗普的强硬移民打压。
Another target for the incoming Democrat-led Congress could be Trump’s hardline immigration crackdown.
他承诺主持美国历史上最大规模的大规模驱逐行动,引发了广泛的公众反对。今年早些时候的一项民意调查发现,65%的美国人认为移民与海关执法局(ICE)在其努力中“走得太远”。
His pledge to oversee the largest mass deportation in US history has sparked widespread public backlash. A public opinion poll earlier this year found that 65 percent of Americans believe Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has “gone too far” in its efforts.
由于控制了国会两院,民主党可以对ICE和其他参与打压的机构展开调查。
With control of both chambers of Congress, Democrats could launch investigations into ICE and other agencies involved in the crackdown.
他们的调查可能会寻求关于拘留中心内部条件、虐待指控以及纳税人资金如何用于移民执法的信息,国家移民法律中心政策副总裁海迪·奥尔特曼说。
Their probes could seek information about conditions inside detention centres, allegations of abuse and how taxpayer dollars are being used for immigration enforcement, said Heidi Altman, the vice president of policy at the National Immigration Law Center.
奥尔特曼认为,国会还可以收回过去两年已经给予特朗普政府的约2400亿美元移民执法资金。
Altman argues Congress could also claw back the roughly $240bn already given to the Trump administration for immigration enforcement over the past two years.
她解释说,这笔资金使ICE能够在很少限制的情况下运作,而不必优先考虑进入哪些社区或拘留谁。
That amount of money, she explained, has allowed ICE to operate with few constraints, without having to prioritise which communities to go into or who to detain.
“迫使放缓并实现某种决策、优先排序和执法的唯一方法,是通过从上一届会议收回资金来大幅削减他们的预算,”她说。
“The only way to force a slowdown and actual sort of decision-making and prioritisation and enforcement is to dramatically curtail their budget by taking back the funding from the last session,” she said.
这样做需要通过特朗普最终可能否决的立法。但奥尔特曼认为,民主党仍应继续推进。
Doing so would require passing legislation that Trump could eventually veto. But Altman argued that Democrats should push ahead anyway.
“我们能做的最糟糕的事就是举手投降,说我们权力有限,”她说。
“The worst possible thing we could do is throw up our hands and say we have limited power,” she said.
“通过法案,看看会发生什么,把它们放在总统的办公桌上,挑战他面对美国人民说他没有做他们压倒性要求的事情。”
“Pass the bills, see what happens, put them on the president’s desk, and dare him to look at the American people and say he’s notg something that they overwhelmingly demanded.”