
民主党将控制国会,但特朗普总统仍有权阻挠其计划作者:米歇尔·弗勒里 两位相隔半个国家的企业主,出于不同原因想要同一件事。
Democrats will hold Congress but President Donald Trump still has the power to block their plans. By Michelle Fleury Two business owners, half a country apart, want the same thing for different reasons.
在得克萨斯州,蒂莉酒店、餐厅和水疗中心的老板金·汉克斯表示,不断上涨的食品杂货和燃油成本迫使她为300名员工加薪。这家企业位于奥斯汀附近。
In Texas, Kim Hanks, who owns Tillies, a hotel, restaurant and spa business near Austin, says rising grocery and fuel costs are forcing her to raise wages for her 300 staff.
“对我们来说,负担能力一直是个移动的靶子,”她告诉BBC世界服务台。
"It's been such a moving target for us on affordability," she told the BBC World Service.
在印第安纳州,经营斯蒂芬森服装与婚纱店的丹尼·雷诺兹,只是希望华盛顿能整顿好局面。“我希望我们能找到一些一致性,一些合作的方式,”他说。民主党人表示,他们听到了这两种呼声。
diana, Danny Reynolds, who runs Stephenson's of Elkhart, a clothing and bridalwear store, simply wants Washington to get its act together. "My hope is that we can just find some consistency, some working together," he said. Democrats say they heard both messages.
“我们以负担能力为竞选纲领,因负担能力而获胜,现在我们的工作是以负担能力为施政重点,”众议院民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯在MSNBC的《早安乔》节目中说。
"We ran on affordability, we won on affordability, and now it's our job to govern on affordability," said House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries on MS Now's Morning Joe.
但困难的部分来了。民主党将控制国会。唐纳德·特朗普总统仍有权阻挠他们的计划。
But here comes the difficult part. Democrats will hold Congress. Donald Trump still has the power to block their plans.
一条穿透人心的讯息 获胜的规模超出了大多数预测者的预期,至少有七个由共和党把持的参议院席位易手。
A message that cut through The scale of the win was bigger than most forecasters expected, with at least seven Republican-held Senate seats changing hands.
结果背后是一种引人注目的情绪:尽管经济在纸面上看起来健康,但只有21%的美国人对国家发展方向感到满意。
Behind the result was a striking mood: just 21% of Americans are satisfied with the direction of the country, even though the economy looks healthy on paper.
选民没有看统计数据。他们看的是食品杂货账单、电费账单和加油站的油价。
Voters weren't looking at the statistics. They were looking at their grocery bills, electricity bills and the price at the petrol pump.
在得克萨斯州农村地区,不断上涨的成本甚至在共和党自己的大本营伤害了共和党。即将卸任的共和党农业专员西德·米勒告诉我,牧场主每头牛的收入减少了300到500美元,同时还面临创纪录的化肥成本。“他们感到被背叛了,”他说。
In rural Texas, rising costs were even hurting Republicans in their own backyard. Sid Miller, the outgoing Republican agriculture commissioner, told me ranchers are getting $300 to $500 less for each head of cattle, while also facing record fertiliser costs. "They felt betrayed," he said.
这不仅仅是一场“蓝色浪潮”。这是一场关于生活成本的投票。那么民主党实际上能为此做些什么呢?
This was more than a blue wave. It was a vote about the cost of living. So what can Democrats actually do about it?
在“为一个负担得起的美国而战”这一旗帜下,民主党人表示医疗保健是他们的首要任务。
The affordability plan Under the banner "Fighting for an Affordable America," Democrats say healthcare is their first priority.
他们希望恢复让《平价医疗法案》下的健康保险变得更便宜的额外财政援助,并扭转特朗普总统2025年签署的削减医疗补助计划的措施。
They want to bring back the extra financial help that made health insurance cheaper under the Affordable Care Act and reverse the cuts to Medicaid signed by President Trump in 2025.
接下来是关税和能源。民主党人想要废除总统的进口关税,他们称这些关税每年给食品杂货、化肥和建筑材料的成本增加了数千美元。
Next come tariffs and energy. Democrats want to scrap the president's import taxes, which they say add thousands of dollars a year to the cost of groceries, fertiliser and building materials.
他们还希望结束在伊朗的战争,他们将其与平均每加仑4.18美元的汽油价格联系在一起,标志着涨幅近40%。
They also want to end the war in Iran, which they link to petrol prices averaging $4.18 a gallon, marking an increase of nearly 40%.
住房排在后面。一些民主党人希望在未来十年内建设400万套新住房。
Housing is next. Some Democrats want to build four million new homes over the next decade.
在税收方面,他们希望让亿万富翁缴纳更多税款,并增加有子女家庭的税收抵免额。这是一份清单很长。但他们究竟能兑现多少?究竟能通过什么?费雪投资公司创始人、投资者肯·费雪直言不讳地表示:“国会无法让任何法案绕过总统的否决。特朗普总统也无法得到他想要的任何东西。”他说,结果很可能是立法和监管层面相对平静的两年。
On tax, they want to make billionaires pay more and increase tax credits for families with children. It's a long list. But how much of it can they actually deliver? What can they actually pass? Investor Ken Fisher, founder of Fisher Investments, puts it bluntly: "Congress can't get anything past a presidential veto. President Trump can't get anything he wants." The result, he says, is likely to be two years of relative quiet on the legislative and regulatory front.
换句话说,在国会获胜并不意味着民主党拥有自由裁量权。特朗普总统仍可阻挠立法,而推翻总统否决需要众参两院各自拥有三分之二多数。
In other words, winning in Congress does not give Democrats a free hand. President Trump can still block legislation, and getting around a presidential veto requires a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate.
对于希望账单降低的选民来说,这可能是一个令人失望的结果。他们投票不是为了政治僵局。
For voters hoping for lower bills, that may be a disappointing result. They didn't vote for political deadlock.
以关税为例。特朗普不太可能放弃一个处于其议程核心地位的贸易政策。如果民主党人想要改变它,他们将需要共和党人的支持。
Take tariffs. Trump is unlikely to abandon a trade policy that is central to his agenda. Democrats will need Republican support if they want to change it.
牛津经济研究院美国副首席经济学家伯纳德·亚罗斯预计,在特朗普剩余任期内,进口平均关税率将维持在10%左右。还有另一个复杂因素。
Bernard Yaros, deputy chief US economist at Oxford Economics, expects the average tariff rate on imports to stay around 10% for the rest of Trump's term. And there's another complication.
关税为政府带来的收入正在增加。2024年,进口税仅占联邦收入的略高于1%。今年,这一比例已超过5%。
Tariffs are bringing in more money for the government. Import taxes accounted for just over 1% of federal revenue in 2024. This year, they account for more than 5%.
亚罗斯认为,关税对政府收入的贡献日益增大,将使其“难以让未来的政府彻底废除”。尽管如此,仍有达成交易的空间。
That growing contribution to government income, Yaros argues, will make tariffs "tough for a future administration to fully dismantle." Still, there are bargains to be struck.
交易可能在哪些领域达成 特朗普总统对CNBC表示,他可以在“比人们理解的多得多的事情上”与民主党人合作。医疗保健可能是其中之一。
Where the deals might be President Trump told CNBC he could work with Democrats on "many more things than people understand". Healthcare might be one of them.
亚罗斯看到达成一项重大政治交易的可能性:民主党同意延长共和党的减税政策,以换取恢复健康保险补贴。但他预计要到2027年底才能达成协议,经济效益要等到2028年才会显现。对于当下正为账单发愁的人来说,等待的时间太长了。民主党也可能加大对企业的施压。
Yaros sees the possibility of a big political trade-off: Democrats agree to extend Republican tax cuts in return for restoring health insurance subsidies. But he doesn't expect a deal until late 2027, with the economic benefits arriving in 2028. That's a long time to wait for anyone struggling with bills today. Democrats could also turn up the pressure on businesses.
咨询公司Veda Partners的亨利埃塔·特雷兹表示,民主党将质疑那些将关税成本转嫁给消费者的企业。
Henrietta Treyz of consultants Veda Partners says Democrats will question companies that passed on the cost of tariffs to customers.
她称,在最高法院2月作出裁决后,问题将变成:“你们是否转身拿走关税退税,然后降低消费者价格?”企业还将被问:“你们得到了什么回报?”她补充道,民主党将“非常谨慎地挑选目标”。
After the Supreme Court ruling in February, she says, the question will be: "Did you turn around, take that tariff rebate, and then lower prices for consumers?" Companies will also be asked: "What did you get in exchange?" Democrats, she adds, will "pick and choose very carefully."
在参议院,即将担任财政委员会主席的俄勒冈州民主党人罗恩·怀登用五个词概括了他的策略:“我们要负担得起,他们要负起责”。他表示将利用该委员会“重申国会对贸易政策的权力”。保险公司、药企和银行应预期会被传唤说明情况。
In the Senate, Ron Wyden, the Oregon Democrat set to chair the Finance Committee, has summed up his approach in five words: "affordability for us, accountability for them." He says he will use the committee to "reassert congressional authority" over trade policy. Insurers, drugmakers and banks should expect to be called to explain themselves.
一些最大的变化可能发生在更贴近民生的层面。州长和监管机构在电价方面有发言权,而地方政府决定新房可以在哪里建设。
And some of the biggest changes may happen closer to home. State governors and regulators have a say in electricity prices, while local authorities decide where new homes can be built.
民主党在得克萨斯州、俄亥俄州和佐治亚州赢得了州长职位,这些州数据中心不断上涨的电力成本已引发担忧。
Democrats have won governorships in Texas, Ohio and Georgia, where the rising cost of electricity for data centres is already a concern.
他们无法控制的部分 最艰巨的考验,或许是民主党无法仅靠一部新法律就能解决的。
The part they can't control The hardest test may be something Democrats cannot fix with a new law.
汽油、柴油和化肥的价格,将在很大程度上取决于与伊朗的战争走向。而预测者们对接下来会发生什么意见不一。
The price of petrol, diesel and fertiliser will depend heavily on what happens in the war with Iran. And forecasters disagree about what comes next.
牛津经济研究院警告称,随着大选结束,进一步升级“似乎更有可能”,因为汽油价格将不再像以前那样,成为总统主要的政治顾虑。
Oxford Economics warns that with the election over, further escalation "appears more likely," because petrol prices will no longer be as much of a political concern for the president.
而尴尬的部分在于:如果价格下跌,民主党可能难以宣称功劳;如果价格上涨,他们可能要分担责任。
And here's the awkward part. If prices come down, Democrats may struggle to claim the credit. If they go up, they may share the blame.
还有一个眼前的考验。政府拨款将在12月11日后耗尽,再次出现政府停摆的可能性令人不安地高。民主党赢得了辩论。现在他们必须证明,能让生活成本降下来。
There is an immediate test, too. Government funding runs out after 11 December, and the chances of another shutdown look uncomfortably high. Democrats won the argument. Now they have to show they can make life cheaper.